Britain is facing a food price shock after farmers warned that this year’s harvest could become the worst on record following months of relentless heat and drought.
Extreme weather during the spring and summer may have wiped out around 2.5 million tonnes of cereals and oilseeds compared with earlier forecasts, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
The warning raises fears of higher supermarket prices, with wheat, barley and oat yields all expected to fall sharply. The potential shortfall could cost UK farmers up to £390 million and leave 2026 as the poorest harvest since detailed records began in 1984.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said Britain’s agricultural industry risked entering a “climate doom loop” as extreme conditions increasingly damage productivity.
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“At the start of spring, farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row,” he said.
The latest estimates from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board suggest cereal yields are set to fall well below normal levels. If the forecasts are confirmed, the UK cereal and oilseed harvest would drop to around 19.5 million tonnes – lower than the previous record low in 2020.
Farmers fear the consequences will eventually be felt by shoppers.
Northamptonshire farmer Ben Aveling warned that supermarkets may turn to cheaper imports rather than paying more for British produce.
“All that will happen is that we will have less UK produce available and less being sold,” he said.
The impact is already being seen across the food industry. Restaurants, pubs and supermarkets have been forced to source more lettuce and broccoli from Spain and the Netherlands because of Britain’s extreme weather.
Wholesale prices have surged, with tomatoes up by more than 60 per cent, iceberg lettuce rising 90 per cent and potatoes increasing by more than 40 per cent.
The pressure is not limited to Britain. Across Europe, drought and wildfires have damaged crops, with olive oil prices also expected to rise after devastating fires swept through groves in Greece, Italy and Portugal.
Gavin Lane, president of the Country Land and Business Association, warned that poor harvests across Europe could mean less food available for import and higher prices at the checkout.
With drought conditions gripping large parts of England and Wales after record-breaking heatwaves, farmers are warning that the effects could reach all the way to the nation’s dinner tables – threatening everything from everyday staples to Christmas meals.