![\"Lord](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/lord-ashcroft-s-polls-have-shown-a-dip-in-support-for-reform-uk.jpg\")
<\/p>\nNigel Farage’s Reform UK has fallen behind both Labour and the Tories in a bombshell new opinion poll.<\/p>\n
The survey, conducted by ex-Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, found Reform UK’s support has dropped to its lowest level since the 2024 General Election at just 18 per cent.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham’s Labour continues to rise steadily in the polls, climbing from 21 per cent to 27 per cent. <\/p>\n
Mr Farage is also languishing behind Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, with the Conservatives now on 23 per cent. <\/p>\n
However, Lord Ashcroft’s poll appears to be an outlier compared to other surveys released since Mr Burnham became Prime Minister last month. <\/p>\n
Reform UK’s average support still stands at 24 per cent since Mr Burnham entered No10. <\/p>\n
During the same time period, Labour’s vote share has ranged from between 20 per cent and 28 per cent.<\/p>\n
The Conservatives have witnessed little change since Mr Burnham took over, with support for Mrs Badenoch’s party hovering around 20 per cent.<\/p>\n
Lord Ashcroft’s polls have shown a dip in support for Reform UK<\/p>\n
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GB NEWS<\/p>\n
Despite other polls painting a prettier picture for Mr Farage, 18 per cent in Lord Ashcroft’s survey could leave Mr Farage with just over a dozen seats.<\/p>\n
Reform UK would secure just 16 seats, significantly down from other polls suggesting Mr Farage could become Prime Minister.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Tories could receive a modest boost to take them from 121 to 158 seats.<\/p>\n
Mr Burnham’s Labour, which Nowcast’s projects would secure 303 seats, would still be left short of forming an overall majority.<\/p>\n
![\"Nigel](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/nigel-farage-is-still-hoping-to-become-pm.jpg\")
Nigel Farage is still hoping to become PM<\/p>\n
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PA<\/p>\n
However, a progressive alliance with the Liberal Democrats would likely ensure Mr Burnham remains Prime Minister if the survey is emulated at the next general election. <\/p>\n
The Greens would also receive more seats than Reform UK, giving Mr Burnham another option amid potential coalition negotiations. <\/p>\n
While Mr Farage claimed back-to-back victories in the 2025 and 2026 Local Elections, Nowcast does not expect such a scenario would give Reform UK much chance of winning Robert Jenrick’s Newark seat or Suella Braverman’s constituency of Fareham & Waterlooville. <\/p>\n
Amber Valley, Basildon & Billericay, Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Dudley, Folkestone & Hythe, Hornchurch & Upminster, Lowestoft, North Warwickshire & Bedworth, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, South West Norfolk, and Tamworth would instead likely fall into Reform UK’s hands. <\/p>\n
![\"Election](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/election-maps-suggest-reform-uk-might-only-win-16-seats.png\")
Election Maps suggest Reform UK might only win 16 seats<\/p>\n
| <\/p>\n
ELECTION MAPS<\/p>\n
However, Reform UK figures have dismissed Lord Ashcroft’s findings as an outlier, pointing to the party’s continued lead in several other national polls.<\/p>\n
A YouGov survey released this week put Reform back ahead of Labour, at 23 per cent to 22 per cent, just days after the Ashcroft poll’s release.<\/p>\n
Mr Farage has previously accused rival pollsters of underplaying Reform’s true level of support, branding some methodologies “deceptive”.<\/p>\n
But Lord Ashcroft has also acknowledged that he assesses party support differently from most of his rivals.<\/p>\n
![\"Reform](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/reform-uk-s-support-is-down-compared-to-a-high-in-september-last-year.jpg\")
Despite concerns about the polling, Reform UK took a hit after it was revealed Mr Farage received a \u00a35 million gift from the Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.<\/p>\n
Mr Farage triggered a by-election in Clacton following the revelations, with none of the major parties opting to field candidates against the Reform UK leader.<\/p>\n
The 62-year-old is expected to romp to victory on August 13.<\/p>\n
However, Mr Farage could face a second by-election if he is suspended for 10 days from the House of Commons. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has fallen behind both Labour and the Tories in a bombshell new opinion poll.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100251,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[4],"tags":[3724,31,14,408,5,20,6],"class_list":["post-100250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-uk","tag-conservative-party","tag-labour-party","tag-politics","tag-reform-uk","tag-uk","tag-uk-politics","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/117066541564783050","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100250\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}