{"id":109453,"date":"2026-08-23T21:13:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-23T21:13:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/109453\/"},"modified":"2026-08-23T21:13:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-23T21:13:12","slug":"latest-jobs-print-points-to-end-of-rba-hiking-cycle-hsbc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/109453\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest jobs print points to end of RBA hiking cycle: HSBC"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"breadcrumbs\" class=\"yoast\"><a href=\"https:\/\/financialnewswire.com.au\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Home<\/a> &gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/financialnewswire.com.au\/.\/investment\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Investment<\/a> &gt; Latest jobs print points to end of RBA hiking cycle: HSBC<\/p>\n<p>      <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"80\"  alt=\"Yasmine Raso\" class=\"avatar avatar-80 wp-user-avatar wp-user-avatar-80 alignnone photo nectar-lazy toploaded loaded nectar-lazy toploaded loaded\" data-nectar-img-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/DSCF4081-e1764893337408-100x100.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/DSCF4081-e1764893337408-100x100.jpg\"\/>      <\/p>\n<p>        Yasmine Raso<\/p>\n<p>Senior Journalist<\/p>\n<p>        24 August 2026<\/p>\n<p><img width=\"1200\" height=\"620\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image nectar-lazy toploaded loaded nectar-lazy toploaded loaded\" alt=\"Arrows point up then down\" title=\"\" decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" data-nectar-img-src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Shutterstock_22405547111.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Shutterstock_22405547111.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>In its analysis of the latest labour market print released last week, HSBC has pointed to \u201cquite volatile\u201d but loosening figures to cement its base case that the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s (RBA\u2019s) tightening cycle has come to an end.<\/p>\n<p>The bank noted that July\u2019s fall in employment by 15,800 jobs, rise in unemployment to 4.5 per cent and drop in labour force participation to 66.9 per cent was a significant pivot that surprised market expectations given a strong print delivered in June.<\/p>\n<p>According to Chief Economist, Paul Bloxham, this \u201csofter-than-expected\u201d result all but reflects persistent month-on-month volatility giving rise to a \u201cgradual loosening pathway\u201d that will see the RBA hold the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent before commencing cuts from Q3 2027.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe key measures of spare capacity in the jobs market also show continued trend loosening,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in July, continuing is gradual upwards trend. It briefly touched this rate back in April and, prior to that, is the highest since November 2021.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOther measures, such as the underutilisation rate and youth unemployment rate \u2013 which tend to be guides to more-cyclical elements of the jobs market \u2013 edged down slightly in July, but are still drifting higher in trend terms.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA trend loosening pathway for the jobs market was also highlighted in yesterday\u2019s Q2 Wage Price Index data. Private sector wages growth slowed to 0.7% q-o-q in Q2 (2.8% annualised) and is now running at its slowest annual pace since June 2022.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe see these figures, on the margin, suggesting the jobs market is loosening just a bit faster than the RBA had been expecting. Recall, in the RBA\u2019s August projections, the central bank forecast the unemployment rate at 4.5% and wages growth of 3.3% y-o-y by Q4 2026.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe unemployment rate may be trending up a bit faster and wages growth is a bit softer, although the minimum wage decision for award wage rises will come into play from 1 July, which could lift wages momentum a bit.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Home &gt; Investment &gt; Latest jobs print points to end of RBA hiking cycle: HSBC Yasmine Raso Senior&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109454,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[20667],"tags":[45219,29,9881,2103,226,20384,45220,30420,45221,4770],"class_list":["post-109453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hsbc","tag-cash-rate","tag-employment","tag-hsbc","tag-interest-rates","tag-jobs","tag-labour-market","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-underemployment","tag-unemployment"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/117146891393655045","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}