\u201cIt\u2019s crazy, what\u2019s happening now,\u201d said Otso Lahtinen, chief executive of Geobear, an engineering firm that\u2019s regularly called in to repair damage caused by subsidence. \u201cIt\u2019s the new norm, and it seems it will happen more often in the next 20-30 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Data provided by Aviva show that the areas of London that are most at risk are some of the UK capital\u2019s most sought-after, namely the boroughs of Westminster, as well as Kensington and Chelsea. While subsidence has been affecting homes in the British capital for decades, climate change is making it worse. London clay is especially sensitive to fluctuations in moisture, expanding when wet and contracting when dry.<\/p>\n
The threat of subsidence in the UK is concentrated in and around London as well as in parts of the southeast. In the four years through 2025, insurance payouts for subsidence damage soared roughly 90% to reach a record \u00a3297 million, according to data provided by the ABI.<\/p>\n
The most vulnerable properties are Victorian or Edwardian homes that were built directly onto the upper layers of London clay. By contrast, modern office buildings in the City of London and Canary Wharf have much deeper foundations and are therefore less exposed to such risks.<\/p>\n
Subsidence is part of a long list of heat-related challenges to which the UK is now struggling to adapt. Over the past months, extreme heat has forced schools to close, led bus drivers to go on strike, and seen banks relax in-office work requirements to protect staff from unbearably hot commutes. Most of England has been gripped by drought and the country\u2019s hospitals have shown signs of buckling under the strain.<\/p>\n
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that the city will need to turn to private investors to help fund the cost of dealing with the impact of rising temperatures. His office estimates that London now faces an annual bill as high as \u00a336 billion into the 2050s to prepare the city for what climate change has in store.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe impact that climate change is having is undeniable,\u201d said Hughes of the ABI.<\/p>\n
Subsidence can devalue a property by an average of 20%-25%, according to the Federation of Master Builders. In some cases, home owners prefer to cover the cost themselves rather than wade through complicated claims processes. The traditional engineering fix for subsidence damage, known as underpinning, can cost anywhere from \u00a320,000 to more than \u00a3100,000.<\/p>\n
The development represents a particular risk to insurers, with subsidence claims making up an ever larger chunk of the payouts they need to make to customers.<\/p>\n
The phenomenon poses \u201ca significant challenge for UK home insurers\u201d, says Cherry Chan, a partner at Deloitte. The consultancy has warned that UK home insurers risk losses in 2026 due in part to the trend.<\/p>\n
Along with flash floods and wildfires, subsidence is becoming \u201can increasingly material climate-related risk\u201d, Chan said. It requires that insurers display \u201ccareful consideration in long-term exposure and risk management strategies\u201d.<\/p>\n
Extreme weather patterns in 2026 \u201cwill not only impact more new claims in this year, but could cause claims deteriorations for unsettled subsidence claims reported in the past\u201d, she added. That includes 2025, which was a so-called surge year for subsidence impacts.<\/p>\n
Fresh estimates from the British Geological Survey indicate that under what is known as the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario \u2013 reflecting a trajectory that closely aligns with current climate policies \u2013 1.8 million properties, or about 5% of the UK total, are \u201chighly likely or extremely likely\u201d to be susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence by 2070. Under a higher emissions scenario, the figure rises to 4.2 million, or 11%, of British properties. Areas most at risk are densely-populated parts of London, Kent and the southeast of England.<\/p>\n
The development has the potential to lead to \u201cincreased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property, replacement of utility pipeworks and unstable transport infrastructure\u201d, according to the BGS.<\/p>\n
Geobear, which tackles subsidence by injecting resin under buildings, says it\u2019s received more homeowner inquiries this summer than ever before. It says insurance clients have confirmed a similar trend, with one telling Geobear it had received 180 claims on a single day, which is significantly more than normal.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a pretty severe situation,\u201d said Lahtinen, the CEO. \u201cIf you\u2019re looking to trade, sell or buy property, this is a trend you can\u2019t ignore.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sign up to Herald Premium Editor\u2019s Picks<\/a>, delivered straight to your inbox every Friday. Editor-in-Chief Murray Kirkness picks the week\u2019s best features, interviews and investigations. Sign up for Herald Premium here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cIt\u2019s crazy, what\u2019s happening now,\u201d said Otso Lahtinen, chief executive of Geobear, an engineering firm that\u2019s regularly called…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":109556,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[26],"tags":[23604,20260,4408,18109,35321,45249,45246,45242,15645,36805,45247,2089,45243,5495,45248,27,13027,45252,22731,45250,29508,45245,45244,45251],"class_list":["post-109555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-london","tag-after","tag-built","tag-city","tag-clay","tag-cracks","tag-dried","tag-facing","tag-find","tag-five","tag-heatwaves","tag-historic","tag-homes","tag-horrendous","tag-in","tag-levels","tag-london","tag-londoners","tag-much","tag-risk","tag-soil","tag-subsidence","tag-successive","tag-their","tag-which"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/117148059241654819","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}