The HSBC (LSE: HSBA) share price has had a barnstorming year. It’s up 60% in the last 12 months to 1,528p. <\/p>\n
All the\u00a0FTSE 100\u00a0banks have done well, but HSBC has streaked ahead. Barclays and Lloyds are up around 35% over one year, while NatWest has gained roughly 27%. <\/p>\n
Over five years, HSBC shares are up around 307%, with dividends on top. Barclays is up 167%, Lloyds 149% and NatWest 188%. With dividends reinvested, the total return from HSBC must be closer to 330%. <\/p>\n
That’s stunning. If this was a US tech stock, we’d all be rushing to buy it. <\/p>\n
Why have FTSE 100 banks done so well <\/p>\n
Higher interest rates have been a big factor. Banks have been able to charge more for loans, while keeping a healthy spread between what they earn on lending and pay on deposits. The UK economy has been patchy, but mortgage lending has held up and credit losses haven’t spiralled. <\/p>\n
HSBC has also had some advantages its UK-focused rivals can’t match. It’s a global banking giant with particularly strong positions in Hong Kong and Asia, plus huge corporate, investment and wealth-management businesses. In 2025, reported profit was $29.9bn. The board completed $6bn of share buybacks. <\/p>\n
Recent numbers (4 August) were even stronger. Its first-half 2026 reported profit jumped 23% to $19.5bn. HSBC is targeting a return on tangible equity of at least 17% through 2028. <\/p>\n
Its geographical reach gives it options that Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays simply don’t have. Hong Kong remains a particularly important market, while HSBC also has enormous exposure to international trade and wealth. <\/p>\n
There are challenges too <\/p>\n
Yet the shares appear to have topped out. Beijing has been tightening controls around mainland Chinese customers using Hong Kong financial services. That could hit lucrative cross-border business. <\/p>\n
Also, the HSBC price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to 16.8, while the price-to-book ratio is around 1.8. It’s not hugely expensive, but it’s not a bargain either. The trailing dividend yield has slipped to 3.6%. <\/p>\n
So what do the experts expect? The 27 analysts offering one-year share price forecasts produce a consensus target of 1,526p. If correct, that’s roughly a 2% dip from today. It seems they share my concerns about the valuation and outlook. <\/p>\n
There’s a huge range though. One optimist sees the shares hitting 1,855p, while one gloomy soul forecasts just 1,117p. That would mean a 27% slump. I bought HSBC in June and that would wipe out my modest early gain. <\/p>\n
Expert views are mixed <\/p>\n
Of the 21 analysts giving stock ratings in the past three months, most are positive: <\/p>\n
Strong Buy:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6 <\/p>\n
Buy:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3 <\/p>\n
Hold:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 9 <\/p>\n
Sell:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1 <\/p>\n
Strong Sell\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2 <\/p>\n
But nine recommend holding. That’s hardly a vote of confidence. Personally, I don’t expect HSBC shares to fall anywhere near 1,117p, unless we get a wider stock market crash. But I can imagine them struggling to make headway after such a strong run. <\/p>\n
I think HSBC is a brilliant long-term opportunity. But this may not be the ideal time to consider it. Other growth and income stocks on the FTSE 100 excite me more today. <\/p>\n
Should you invest \u00a35,000 in HSBC Holdings right now? <\/p>\n
When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. <\/p>\n
And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if HSBC Holdings made the list? <\/p>\n
\u00a0See The Six Stocks <\/p>\n
Harvey Jones owns shares in HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest. <\/p>\n
The post Could the HSBC share price slump to just 1,117p by September 2027?<\/a> appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie<\/a>. <\/p>\n More reading <\/p>\n The Twelfth Magpie 2026 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The HSBC (LSE: HSBA) share price has had a barnstorming year. It’s up 60% in the last 12…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113894,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[20667],"tags":[3343,9881,20674,3692,46710,7955,46709,46319],"class_list":["post-113893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hsbc","tag-barclays","tag-hsbc","tag-hsbc-holdings","tag-lloyds","tag-mark","tag-natwest","tag-the-twelfth-magpie","tag-twelfth-magpie-share-advisor"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/117185166847884791","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}