![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Vivek-Ramachandran-e1788124223108-150x150.png\")
By Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions, HSBC<\/p>\n\t\t\t25<\/p>\n
By Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions, HSBC<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
The US$35 trillion value of global trade in goods and commercial services is at an inflection point. Heightened tariffs, geopolitical tensions and a sense of economic insecurity have contributed to the perception that globalisation is coming to an end. Similar questions were asked after the oil shocks of the 1970s, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. In each case, international trade proved more resilient than some observers had anticipated\u2014not because the challenges were overstated, but because businesses adapted their behaviour to a new reality.<\/p>\n
The next chapter will likely look very different from the last, while remaining just as global. The reasons for this lie in four trends shaping the future of trade.<\/p>\n
Looking more closely at the dynamics of the world economy suggests that globalisation is far from over. Instead, the next chapter will likely look very different from the last, while remaining just as global. The reasons for this lie in four trends shaping the future of trade: the redesign of supply chains for resilience, the rapid growth of digital trade, the renewed strategic importance of working capital and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) as a powerful new driver of investment.<\/p>\n
Taken together, these forces point to a world in which trade is increasingly redirected through new routes and networks, more services-led and digital, and shaped by strategic investments in technology and infrastructure. The businesses that adapt fastest to these shifts will be the ones best positioned to thrive.<\/p>\n
The redesign of supply chains<\/p>\n
Perhaps the clearest sign that globalisation is evolving rather than ending is evident in how businesses are redesigning supply chains to make them more resilient.<\/p>\n
Much of the discussion around tariffs has focused on their impacts on the overall level of international trade. In practice, tariffs are also changing where trade occurs and how production is distributed.<\/p>\n
New corridors of trade are also emerging as governments pursue bilateral and regional trade agreements to strengthen commercial ties with key partners and reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. India, the European Union (EU) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have all sought deeper trade and investment relationships with a range of partners, while Canada, the United Kingdom and Mexico have also expanded their commercial links. Meanwhile, America\u2019s trade corridors with Mexico and Canada remain extensive. Businesses are not pausing their operations in international markets due to heightened uncertainty. Rather than diminishing, trade is being redirected through routes that offer greater resilience.<\/p>\n
Digital trade will define the next era of global commerce<\/p>\n
Digitalisation will define the next era of global trade, both in terms of what crosses borders and how international business is conducted. Services now account for around US$9 trillion of global trade, or 25 percent of total international trade, and they are growing at four times the rate of merchandise trade. Simulations in the World Trade Organization\u2019s 2025 \u201cWorld Trade Report\u201d suggest that AI could lead to significant increases in trade and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34 to 37 percent across different scenarios. The largest growth is expected to occur in the trade of digitally deliverable services (42 percent), including AI services. This suggests that globalisation may be evolving as international commerce becomes more digital and less tangible.<\/p>\n
Cross-border commerce now takes many forms, from software, cloud services, engineering and intellectual property to financial services and cybersecurity. Firms can serve customers internationally without shipping a physical product, but they are engaging in international trade just the same.<\/p>\n
Companies are also rethinking how and where they sell. New technologies have enabled new channels, and business-to-business e-commerce now represents a US$30-trillion-a-year market, making it one of the world\u2019s largest commercial ecosystems. Yet much of the financial infrastructure that supports this exchange is still built on outdated processes and instruments designed for paper-based trade, such as letters of credit (LCs) and bills of lading.<\/p>\n
As international commerce becomes more digital, trade finance will need to evolve, too, including by enabling embedded finance across multiple jurisdictions in near real-time. The firms and financial institutions that lead this transformation will be best positioned to benefit from the next wave of globalisation.<\/p>\n
Working capital has become a strategic priority<\/p>\n
If there is one lesson gleaned from experiencing global trade disruptions, it is that resilience comes at a price. <\/p>\n
If there is one lesson gleaned from experiencing global trade disruptions, it is that resilience comes at a price. Diversifying supply chains, building inventory buffers and spreading production across multiple markets can reduce risk, but they also require more working capital. What was once regarded as a purely treasury function now has strategic implications, as multinational corporations balance resilience with the imperative to manage costs.<\/p>\n
The impact of macroeconomic shocks on working capital is far-reaching. Import duties often need to be paid before goods can clear customs. Longer and more complex supply chains typically require greater investments in inventory. Maintaining strong supplier relationships can also involve paying early, even when customers are granted longer payment terms. Resilience requires liquidity, and that has profound implications for how firms manage working capital.<\/p>\n
This issue has become so pressing that almost 60 percent of respondents to HSBC\u2019s latest Global Trade Pulse Survey of more than 6,500 firms across 17 markets identified it as a strategic priority, while nine in ten expected their banks to play a much greater role in helping them navigate the challenges ahead. Working capital is no longer measured purely by how effectively cash is managed, but also by how it can be leveraged to provide a competitive advantage. The ability to manage working capital effectively will be critical in the next phase of globalisation and will influence how quickly firms can respond to emerging opportunities.<\/p>\n
Artificial intelligence will reshape trade through investment<\/p>\n
AI is already reshaping global trade because it relies on physical inputs as well as software. Semiconductors, servers, networking and telecommunications equipment, power infrastructure and industrial metals are becoming visible sources of trade momentum. AI-related goods accounted for almost 50 percent of global trade growth in the first half of 2025 and rose by 20 percent year-on-year in value terms, highlighting how quickly demand is accelerating.<\/p>\n
Independent estimates point to a similar story. McKinsey & Company\u2019s McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) suggested shipments of data-centre hardware rose by around 40 percent in 2025 and contributed about one-third of global trade growth. In the United States, AI-related trade rose by roughly two-thirds, or about US$220 billion. Across major economies, AI-related goods are growing much faster than other traded categories, suggesting that a growing share of goods trade is being pulled along by the buildout of AI infrastructure.<\/p>\n
This reflects how global and interdependent AI supply chains have become. A single data centre can combine software and system design in one country with chip fabrication in Taiwan, lithography tools from the Netherlands, memory from Korea, packaging and testing in Southeast Asia, turbines manufactured in Mexico and copper sourced from Chile. Long before any model is deployed, multiple international supply chains are activated across minerals, advanced manufacturing equipment, electrical machinery, cooling systems, specialist engineering and construction. The result is that AI\u2019s trade impact extends well beyond the technology sector itself.<\/p>\n
AI\u2019s largest impact on trade may ultimately come through investments as firms race to build capacity and capture productivity gains. AI spending is no longer a narrow technology budget line. It is becoming an infrastructure cycle, driving demand not only for hardware but also for the energy and cooling systems needed to run it, as well as the upstream raw materials that enable both. Trade remains central to making this boom possible, and the businesses that invest early, secure resilient supply chains and access the right financing will be best placed to lead the next phase of globalisation.<\/p>\n
The next era of globalisation will not be defined by frictionless trade and ever-longer supply chains. It will be shaped by new technologies and policy shifts\u2014and by the adaptive strategies businesses use to respond, redesign and invest. The debate must move on from whether globalisation is ending to what comes next: a more resilient, more digital model of trade in which liquidity and working capital matter more and in which investments in strategic technologies such as AI determine which firms lead as the routes, rules and requirements of global commerce change.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/p>\n
Vivek Ramachandran is Head of Global Trade Solutions at HSBC, leading a team of 5,000 trade professionals across more than 50 markets. HSBC is a global leader in trade finance, partnering with clients to deliver innovative solutions supported by deep industry expertise. Vivek is a member of both the HSBC Corporate and Institutional Banking Executive Committee and the HBEU Executive Committee.<\/p>\n
Vivek first joined HSBC in 2015 as Global Head of Product for Global Trade Solutions. He subsequently served as Global Head of Growth & Innovation for Commercial Banking, where he was responsible for exploring new business models and driving the adoption of emerging technologies. He later took on an external role as CEO of Serai, a digital B2B network, before returning to HSBC. Prior to joining the bank, Vivek held senior management positions at other financial institutions.<\/p>\n
Vivek holds a PhD in Economics from Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA, where he received the university\u2019s highest recognition awards for his achievements in teaching and research.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"25 By Vivek Ramachandran, Head of Global Trade Solutions, HSBC \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 The US$35 trillion value…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118152,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[20667],"tags":[1288,48156,30232,1924,11,30341,3272,21508,9881,30233],"class_list":["post-118151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hsbc","tag-artificial-intelligence-ai","tag-cross-border-commerce","tag-digital-trade","tag-european-union-eu","tag-finance","tag-global-commerce","tag-global-trade","tag-globalisation","tag-hsbc","tag-vivek-ramachandran"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/117217843516489614","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}