{"id":11961,"date":"2026-04-11T22:20:24","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T22:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/11961\/"},"modified":"2026-04-11T22:20:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T22:20:24","slug":"what-is-a-super-el-nino-and-could-it-be-on-the-way-to-the-uk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/11961\/","title":{"rendered":"What is a ‘super El Nino’ and could it be on the way to the UK?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The weather<\/a> in the UK is predictably unpredictable, but a change in climate patterns later in the year could see temperatures boosted by the meteorological phenomenon known as El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Climate experts are predicting a change in El Ni\u00f1o, which could impact conditions<\/a> around the globe, including in the UK, potentially increasing temperatures. <\/p>\n

But what is El Ni\u00f1o and how could it affect us in the UK?<\/p>\n

New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.<\/p>\n

What is El Nino?<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is essentially the biggest fluctuation in the world\u2019s climate system, known as the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle.<\/p>\n

One is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific \u201crise 0.5\u00b0C above the long-term average\u201d, affecting areas in the nearby vicinity such as the coast of South America particularly strongly.<\/p>\n

The Met Office<\/a> says: \u201cThe name \u2018El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe effects of El Ni\u00f1o often peak during December; its name \u2018the boy\u2019 is thought to have originated as \u2018El Ni\u00f1o de Navidad\u2018 centuries ago when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ.\u201d<\/p>\n

Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Albany, told Time<\/a> Magazine that: \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o occurs when warm water that\u2019s built up in the West Pacific sloshes to the east and replaces that normally cold water with warmer water.\u201d<\/p>\n

The opposite is La Ni\u00f1a, when temperatures fluctuate downwards, seeing the average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific drop between 3 \u2013 5\u00b0C below average.<\/p>\n

The Met continues: \u201cThere are also neutral phases of the cycle when conditions are closer to the long-term average (within +\/- 0.5 \u00b0C). These may be within a period of warming or cooling in the cycle. Approximately half of all years are described as neutral.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the moment the impact of global warming on El Ni\u00f1o is being studied, but the Climate Prediction Centre says: \u201cThis amplified cycle translates into more extreme and frequent ENSO-linked droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires and severe storms.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"SummerEl Ni\u00f1o affects weather patterns even of distant countries such as the UK (Photo: Slawek Staszczuk\/Loop Images\/Universal Images Group\/Getty)<\/p>\n

What could happen this year?<\/p>\n

The cooling La Ni\u00f1a has been in place since December 2024, temporarily giving the planet lower global temperatures<\/a>. This meant that 2025 was cooler than 2024, which was the world\u2019s hottest year on record.<\/p>\n

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology<\/a> (BoM), however, says La Ni\u00f1a \u201cis close to its end\u201d, while the United States\u2019 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believes it will transition to a neutral state in the next month until early summer. Later in the year El Ni\u00f1o is expected to kick in and there is a 62 percent chance it will \u201cpersist through at least the end of 2026\u201d.<\/p>\n

Some believe this year\u2019s might even be a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d, defined by some as when sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific reach as much as +1.5\u00b0C above average.<\/p>\n

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a> said there\u2019s a 23 per cent chance of a \u2018very strong\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o and a 50 percent chance of a \u2018strong\u2019 version, while the The US Climate Prediction Center believes there is a one in three chance of a Super El Ni\u00f1o taking place between October and December.<\/p>\n

These events are rare, there have been only five since 1950. The last extended run was in 2015 \u2013 16, and 2016 became the hottest year on record at that time, with a lasting impact on the years following it.<\/p>\n

The Met Office says: \u201cThese events are associated with widespread changes in the climate system that last several months, and can lead to significant human impacts affecting things such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"GLENCOE,Due to a lag behind the actual event the biggest impact might be felt next winter (Photo: Jeff J Mitchell\/Getty)<\/p>\n

What would it do to the UK\u2019s weather?<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o can change weather patterns around the world. Professor Roundy adds: \u201cPlaces that don\u2019t normally get very much rain can get a lot of rain, and places that are normally wet end up being drier than normal.\u201d<\/p>\n

It can affect hurricane season in the Caribbean, monsoon season in Asia or droughts in South America and Australia. The strongest effects are felt in the places closest to the Pacific, and they can impact things like food security or populations of animals like penguins in the Galapagos. <\/p>\n

Ian Faloona, micrometeorologist in the Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources at the University of California,<\/a> says: \u201cIf we have another El Ni\u00f1o, this means the global temperatures for 2026 or 2027 primarily, are likely to be much, much higher than ever before.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the UK, the effects are usually milder, although it can be hard to predict. Higher temperatures may be more likely in summer, with the BBC<\/a> reporting a potential boost of 0.2\u00b0C, but due to a lag behind the actual event the biggest impact might be felt next winter. <\/p>\n

What is the weather forecast in the UK for the next week?<\/p>\n

The UK saw the hottest<\/a> day of the year on Wednesday, but conditions for the next week are looking a little more unsettled.<\/p>\n

The mercury soared to 26.6C (79.8F) at Kew Gardens, London, but they soon dipped back down to single digits for much of the country.<\/p>\n

In the next few days there will be a mix of sunshine and showers, with temperatures at around 9\u00b0C in the north and 13\u00b0C in the south on Sunday. The UK will see a blustery start with quite a few showers across the north and west, so \u201cthe best of the morning sunshine<\/a> will be in the east\u201d, says Met Office weather forecaster Marco Patagna. Showers will break out a bit more widely\u00a0later on with \u201cthe odd rumble of thunder and hail in places as well\u201d.<\/p>\n

However, Monday will see the heat start to creep back in, and by midweek the Met Office says we might see 16 or 17\u00b0C in the south.<\/p>\n

Patagna added: \u201cIt will be generally changeable but it will start to pick up later in the week.\u201d<\/p>\n

Monday will be mostly dry and fairly bright to start with, although some showers will break out in the afternoon, with one or two on the heavy side.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tuesday will have a chilly start with plenty of dry weather, although showers will edge in from the west later on.<\/p>\n

Rain will push eastwards combined with strong winds on Wednesday, but Thursday will see the return of sunshine and showers.<\/p>\n

On Friday it will start to be a little bit dryer in the south but there is a chance of some rain in the north and Scotland and temperatures will pick up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The weather in the UK is predictably unpredictable, but a change in climate patterns later in the year…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11962,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[4],"tags":[5631,5,1627,6,150,5632],"class_list":["post-11961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-uk","tag-summer","tag-uk","tag-uk-weather","tag-united-kingdom","tag-weather","tag-weather-forecasts"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/116388405080588027","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}