Share<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The capital is now the only place where the Conservatives are regaining ground <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n A strong policy offer for the so-called \u2018HENRYs\u2019 is not a nationally competitive pitch <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n London risks becoming politically alienated from the rest of Britain <\/p>\n I was in a field in Kent as the local election results came in. As an unapologetic adherent of the metropolitan elite, it\u2019s not my natural environment. But over the weekend it became increasingly clear that I\u2019m not the only Londoner who\u2019s out of touch with the rest of the country.<\/p>\n The capital is now the only place where the Conservatives are regaining ground \u2013 winning back Westminster, becoming the largest party in Wandsworth and holding off a challenge from Reform in Bexley. Tories were jubilant \u2013 with Kemi Badenoch hailing \u2018green shoots of Conservative recovery\u2019<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 but they shouldn\u2019t be. Overall, their vote share and number of councillors fell. Success in London is a reflection of how different voters here are to their fellow Brits \u2013 not of Conservative popularity.<\/p>\n London is the country\u2019s economic engine and its most productive region. That means both that its citizens have a natural understanding of the necessity of growth but correspondingly have not been at the sharpest end of decline (though that is changing). Badenoch has a strong policy offer for so-called \u2018HENRYs\u2019 \u2013 High Earners, Not Rich Yet<\/a> \u2013 with abolishing business rates and stamp duty. But I have often had the impression that my wealthiest neighbours treated voting as a luxury, knowing it would hardly affect them whatever the outcome. Conservatives may now be operating in a similar way. As William Atkinson put it in The Spectator<\/a>, \u2018they\u2019re the sort of people happy enough with 14 wasted years to think Tories still deserve a hearing, or consider Farage too declass\u00e9 to go over to Reform\u2019. It\u2019s a comfortable place for people like me, but it\u2019s not a nationally competitive pitch.<\/p>\n That five Green councillors lost to the Lib Dems in Richmond, one of the richest boroughs, perhaps indicates that even plutocrats are now taking the threat of that party seriously. Green victories, including seizing overall control of Lewisham and winning two borough mayoralties should worry Londoners. And not just because the party is led by Zack Polanski<\/a>, who repeatedly claimed he could hypnotise<\/a> women\u2019s breasts bigger, exaggerated his CV<\/a> in multiple areas and has questions to answer over his tax affairs<\/a>. Much of London\u2019s Jewish population is also unlikely to welcome the election of councillors for whom Gaza was a central campaign issue. One does question the Greens\u2019 fixation on this single foreign policy issue, and what it has to do with the environment \u2013 or bin collections.<\/p>\n But the more immediate practical effect of having Green councils and more councils with no overall control will be to make the housing crisis<\/a> worse. Green policy includes reinstating the 35% affordable housing requirement \u2013 which would make most development unviable to build \u2013 and rent controls. In a city where rent can account for 50% of income and where new housebuilding has<\/a> collapsed by 72%, this is suicidal.<\/p>\n In the nine councils where no single party is in control, decisions will be much harder to make. Many boroughs will have to form coalitions between fierce ideological opponents and awkward personalities. In Wandsworth, for example, Conservatives hold 29 seats to Labour\u2019s 28, with a single kingmaker who defected from the Tories citing \u2018toxic internal politics\u2019<\/a>. Tony Travers of LSE\u2019s Department of Government has warned<\/a> of \u2018a risk that anti-development voices become louder because it\u2019s easy to win popular votes by opposing development, much less easy to win them by being pro big new buildings and loss of housing\u2019. Indeed, in Enfield, the Greens have already formed a bizarre pact with the Conservatives to oppose Green Belt housing<\/a>.<\/p>\n Reform UK\u2019s surge across the country compared to a relatively weak performance in the capital is concerning too. London risks becoming its own island of strangers, politically alienated from the rest of Britain. That\u2019s dangerous because MPs \u2013 and to a greater extent commentators, cultural figures and others who believe they shape the prevailing mood \u2013 spend most of their time here. That\u2019s why so many were astonished by the result of the Brexit referendum. It might also explain why the promises of that result were so badly betrayed, leading to the fracturing of the old two-party system these elections confirmed.<\/p>\n Britain needs politicians who recognise that the capital is the immediate jewel of the nation\u2019s soul. But any future Farage government will have no incentive to do so if he can\u2019t win the votes of its people. He will instead be tempted to continue the abject \u2018levelling up\u2019 agenda which has plainly failed to produce growth.<\/p>\n The same applies to the future direction of the Labour Party \u2013 whatever that may be. If Manchester proves anything, it\u2019s that the agglomeration effects from a large graduate population and rich cultural heritage can also benefit from strong local leadership. But if Andy Burnham or Angela Rayner succeeds Keir Starmer, it\u2019s difficult to see how their politics of Northern grievance will help London. And that\u2019s before the bond markets have their say about an even more left-wing government.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s hope for more forceful and coherent leadership for London, it must come from the upcoming mayoral election in 2028. London\u2019s progressive voting bloc is bigger than its right-wing one but more divided. This is an opportunity for the Conservatives, especially given the contest will be decided by supplementary vote. They just need to pick the right candidate. Not an aristocrat for whom politics is a hobby, much like his current pastime of sculpting elephants<\/a>. Not a man who has to withdraw from the selection process following a groping allegation, to be replaced by a woman whose chief qualification was not being him.\u00a0<\/p>\n Perhaps a fresh new face or perhaps a moderate member of the current shadow cabinet with serious government experience; one who may be persuaded not to stand again in an Essex constituency threatened by Reform? Choose cleverly.<\/p>\n \u00a0\u2013 the best pieces from CapX and across the web.<\/p>\n CapX depends on the generosity of its readers. If you value what we do, please consider making a donation.<\/p>\n Columns are the author’s own opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of CapX.<\/p>\n \t\t