(Bloomberg) — Commodities are in a \u201csuper-squeeze\u201d that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.<\/p>\n
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\u201cThe longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach \u2018tipping points\u2019 in the markets for some commodities,\u201d analysts including Paul Bloxham said in a June 1 report. Still, knowing exactly when that might happen is hard to determine, they added.<\/p>\n
Raw materials hit a record in mid-May, before paring gains as the US stepped up efforts to extend a truce in its war with Iran, which could reopen the critical waterway and eventually pave a way for an end to the conflict. Beyond the Middle East, HSBC\u2019s broad outlook also highlighted other bullish factors for commodities, including rising consumption for base metals such as copper, and a looming El Ni\u00f1o weather event that may hurt crop supplies.<\/p>\n
The overall commodities cycle remains in a so-called super-bull phase, but \u201cthis is very different to earlier \u2018super-cycles\u2019, because it is driven by supply disruptions,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cRather than a \u2018super-cycle\u2019, we have been calling it a \u2018super-squeeze\u2019,\u201d they said, highlighting earlier bank research.<\/p>\n
With Hormuz still all-but shuttered, oil stockpiles \u201cmay reach critical functional lows, which could see sharper \u2014 non-linear \u2014 price rises and genuine shortages,\u201d they warned. In peacetime, the waterway \u2014 which links the Persian Gulf to global markets \u2014 carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.<\/p>\n
Global oil benchmark Brent traded near $94 a barrel on Tuesday after a modest drop, well below Iran-war highs above $126. in metals, aluminum hit a four-year high, while copper was at $13,976 a ton, up 13% this year.<\/p>\n
For aluminum, \u201cthe structural demand story is positive, but a key driver of late has been the damage to smelting capacity in the Middle East,\u201d the analysts said. \u201cThe copper price rise is primarily a demand-led story.\u201d<\/p>\n
(Updates to add chart.)<\/p>\n
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\u00a92026 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg) — Commodities are in a \u201csuper-squeeze\u201d that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[20667],"tags":[5897,21835,9881,20122,26772,1146],"class_list":["post-54434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hsbc","tag-bloomberg","tag-commodities","tag-hsbc","tag-hsbc-holdings-plc","tag-paul-bloxham","tag-strait-of-hormuz"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/116680407245153467","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}