The by-election<\/a> was triggered by a Labour<\/a> MP seeking to give Andy Burnham<\/a> an opportunity to return to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir Starmer<\/a>, whose leadership remains under immense strain.<\/p>\n But the mayor of Greater Manchester\u2019s victory<\/a> – and subsequent opportunity to challenge the prime minister- is far from guaranteed<\/a>.<\/p>\n The area is one of many post-industrial northern towns that turned its back on Labour<\/a> in favour of Nigel Farage<\/a>\u2019s Reform<\/a> UK in last month\u2019s local elections, winning 24 of 25 seats up for grabs in Makerfield\u2019s Wigan borough.<\/p>\n But in what could be a major stroke of luck for Mr Burnham, a right-wing challenger could hamper Reform<\/a>\u2019s vote just enough to secure a Labour victory.<\/p>\n Restore Britain<\/a>\u2019s candidate, local businesses owner Rebecca Shepherd, 53, could be the deciding factor in whether Burnham has a clear path to No 10 or not.<\/p>\n The party appeared to fracture Reform\u2019s vote in the first constituency poll, winning seven percentage points. This is over double the slim three point lead Burnham held over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon in the same poll.<\/p>\n A second poll, by Survation, saw Restore\u2019s vote grow by 1 per cent, while Reform\u2019s decreased by the same amount. Meanwhile, Labour enjoyed a 10 point lead, perhaps boosted by Restore\u2019s 8 points.<\/p>\n A recent leaked poll, published by the i Paper, put Rupert Lowe\u2019s party at 13 per cent of the vote, just 11 points behind Reform UK, who were also 11 points behind Labour.<\/p>\n The UK\u2019s leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice<\/a> said, if accurate, the polls suggest Restore could \u201cmake the difference between Reform winning or not winning\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are largely picking up the same kind of people as Reform. The national polls suggest they\u2019re picking up the younger end of Reform support,\u201d he told The Independent, adding Restore is more likely to be a \u201cpotential spoiler than a significant player\u201d.<\/p>\n He said: \u201cTheir 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform.\u201d<\/p>\n If Restore splits Reform\u2019s vote enough to sweep Burnham to victory, he is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir upon his return to Parliament in a contest he is the favourite to win, making him the next prime minister.<\/p>\n However, if it does not and Reform\u2019s Robert Kenyon wins, Sir Keir could remain prime minister, or face a challenge from other Labour MPs, including his former deputy Angela Rayner or the recently resigned Wes Streeting.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, a Reform win could boost Nigel Farage\u2019s own chances of reaching No 10 by painting his party as an inevitable successor to Labour.<\/p>\n Either way, Shepherd\u2019s vote certainly has the potential to ultimately determine Britain\u2019s next prime minister.<\/p>\n Farage has attempted to diminish the impact of Restore\u2019s presence in the by-election<\/a>, insisting the contest was a \u201ctwo-horse race\u201d between Labour and Reform, but it is already clear that the fledgling party is poaching Reform\u2019s voters.<\/p>\n Restore Britain was founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe after he was suspended from Reform UK last year, amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf.<\/p>\n He denied the allegations, and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to alleged threats towards Mr Yusuf.<\/p>\n The party – which until now has largely been based in Lowe\u2019s constituency Great Yarmouth – is further to the right than Reform on issues such as immigration.<\/p>\n The party has enjoyed support from tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has publicly backed Restore Britain a number of times on his X platform.<\/p>\n Sir John said the limited nature of polls makes it difficult to identify exactly why Reform voters are defecting to Restore, but former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara<\/a> pointed out voters may now see Lowe\u2019s party as true anti-establishment.<\/p>\n![\"Shepherd](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Rebecca-Shepherd.jpeg\")
Shepherd did surprisingly well in the first constituency poll, appearing to have fractured the right-wing vote with seven points (Restore Britain)<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/2278864594...jpeg\")
A Restore Britain placard in Ashton-in-Makerfield, one of the main towns in the constituency (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n![\"If](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/2270652604.jpg\")
If Restore splits Reform\u2019s vote enough to sweep Burnham to victory, the mayor will very likely challenge Sir Keir upon his return to Parliament in a contest he is widely expected to win, making him the next prime minister (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n![\"Restore](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/2160041714...jpeg\")
Restore Britain was founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe after he was suspended from Reform UK last year, amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n