{"id":61861,"date":"2026-06-12T21:39:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T21:39:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/61861\/"},"modified":"2026-06-12T21:39:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T21:39:13","slug":"restore-britain-set-to-sweep-andy-burnham-to-victory-in-makerfield-and-beat-reform-uk-new-poll-suggests-ahead-of-by-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/61861\/","title":{"rendered":"Restore Britain set to sweep Andy Burnham to victory in Makerfield and beat Reform UK, new poll suggests ahead of by-election"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Restore Britain voters are set to sweep Andy Burnham<\/a> to victory in Makerfield,<\/a> according to a new poll that suggests a split in the right-wing vote could hamper Reform UK\u2019s chances. <\/p>\n

Constituency polling seen by The Independent suggests Rupert Lowe\u2019s hard-right party has won over enough voters to prevent Nigel Farage\u2019s candidate Robert Kenyon from claiming victory<\/a> over Labour in the crucial by-election. <\/p>\n

According to the poll, the mayor of Greater Manchester<\/a> has a narrow lead \u2013 on 46 per cent \u2013 while Mr Kenyon trails five points behind on 41 per cent.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Restore Britain\u2019s Rebecca Shepherd is on roughly 7 per cent. It means she could be the deciding factor in swinging the contest in Mr Burnham\u2019s favour \u2013 and determining whether he will return to Westminster<\/a> to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. <\/p>\n

But Mr Burnham\u2019s lead in the poll is within the margin of error, which is just under 5 per cent, and the margin of late-campaign movement \u2013 meaning it is too close to call. <\/p>\n

\"AndyAndy Burnham during a campaign visit to the town of Ashton-in-Makerfield (AP)<\/p>\n

The polling of 543 adults, with undecided and non-voters removed, was conducted by Opinium for campaign group Forward democracy and is the largest constituency poll done to date ahead of Thursday\u2019s contest.<\/p>\n

The Conservatives are on around 2.5 per cent, while the Greens and Lib Dems are each below 2 per cent, meaning they would all lose their deposit, the poll shows.<\/p>\n

Restore Britain was founded by Mr Lowe after he was suspended from Reform UK last year amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf.<\/p>\n

He denied the allegations and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to alleged threats towards Mr Yusuf.<\/p>\n

\"AA Restore Britain banner at the Makerfield by-election (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n

The party \u2013 which until now has largely been based in Lowe\u2019s constituency Great Yarmouth \u2013 is further to the right than Reform on issues such as immigration.<\/p>\n

Mr Farage has attempted to diminish the impact of Restore Britain\u2019s presence in the by-election, insisting the contest was a \u201ctwo-horse race\u201d between Labour and Reform, but it is already clear that the fledgling party is poaching Reform\u2019s voters.<\/p>\n

Earlier this week, the UK\u2019s leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said that polls suggest Restore Britain could \u201cmake the difference between Reform winning or not winning\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are largely picking up the same kind of people as Reform. The national polls suggest they\u2019re picking up the younger end of Reform support,\u201d he told The Independent, adding that Restore Britain is more likely to be a \u201cpotential spoiler than a significant player\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"NigelNigel Farage has attempted to diminish the impact of Restore Britain\u2019s presence in the by-election, insisting the contest was a \u201ctwo-horse race\u201d between Labour and Reform (Getty)<\/p>\n

He said: \u201cTheir 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forward Democracy, which runs a tactical voting website, Stop Reform UK, said the poll cements Mr Burnham as \u201cthe only candidate who can stop\u201d Mr Farage\u2019s party.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them,\u201d founder Tom de Grunwald said.<\/p>\n

Mr Burnham\u2019s team is understood to already be organising his Downing Street operation and sounding out candidates to join his top team, including cabinet roles, in the expectation he will become leader and prime minister after returning to parliament.<\/p>\n

Details of Mr Burnham\u2019s preparations for No 10 include looking at an overhaul of communications in Downing Street, which has been identified as one of Sir Keir\u2019s greatest weaknesses.<\/p>\n

He is also starting to set out cabinet roles, with Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell among those expected to be included.<\/p>\n

It is understood that deputy prime minister David Lammy and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds are on a list of ministers likely to be sacked by Mr Burnham, who pointedly promised to end the suspension of rebel MP Karl Turner, a vocal critic of Mr Lammy\u2019s reforms to jury trials.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61862,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2],"tags":[13,6542,6355,14],"class_list":["post-61861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-britain","tag-britain","tag-election","tag-horizontal","tag-politics"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/116739307133564009","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61861\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}