{"id":82824,"date":"2026-07-14T14:04:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T14:04:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/82824\/"},"modified":"2026-07-14T14:04:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T14:04:13","slug":"hormuz-toll-not-a-factor-oil-prices-set-to-trade-around-80-standard-chartered-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/82824\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz toll not a factor: Oil prices set to trade around $80, Standard Chartered says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tolls on tankers<\/a> crossing the Strait of Hormuz are not a factor in oil price projections<\/a>, with flare-ups in the US-Iran conflict expected to keep costs around $80 a barrel in the short term, Standard Chartered has said. <\/p>\n

By the end of this year, prices are likely to taper towards the $70 mark, but are unlikely to hit the $60 lows seen at the start of this year, Manpreet Gill, the bank’s chief investment officer of Africa, Middle East and Europe said on Tuesday. <\/p>\n

\u201cDirectionally, we believe that we are eventually heading for lower oil prices \u2026 we have an $80 [per barrel] expectation and we tend to think of the short term as one to three months,\u201d Mr Gill said. <\/p>\n

The short-term estimate assumes that the escalation will go on \u201cfor a little bit longer\u201d. However, efforts to reach a resolution, \u201cor more supply being able to find its way around the constraints\u201d, looks set to drive prices down to the $70-a-barrel level.<\/p>\n

However, \u201cwe don’t expect oil to go back to $60 immediately, and by that I mean the rest of this year \u2026 we may end up there next year\u201d, Mr Gill added. <\/p>\n

War premium<\/p>\n

Oil prices shot up to hit an intraday high of $126 a barrel in April, after the start of the Iran war on February 28. The war premium, however, faded gradually after US and Iran agreed to a two-month ceasefire to pursue a permanent peace deal. <\/p>\n

Prices, which fell below the prewar level of $72 a barrel this month, shot up again after Iran hit oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz last week, prompting the US to strike Iranian targets. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Trump: ‘We’ll end up controlling the Strait of Hormuz’<\/p>\n

The US and Iran have said they no longer honour the ceasefire agreement and have escalated tit-for-tat strikes. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed earlier this week and on Tuesday it hit two UAE supertankers in Oman\u2019s territorial waters.<\/p>\n

The escalation sent oil prices to their highest level in a month on Tuesday, after posting a more than 9 per cent jump<\/a> in the previous session.<\/p>\n

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world\u2019s oil, was trading 4.80 per cent higher at $87.23 per barrel at 3.13pm UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 3.57 per cent at $80.93 a barrel.<\/p>\n

Crude prices are currently at their highest level since the US and Iran signed an interim deal<\/a> to end the war on June 17. However, they are unlikely to hit the $100 per barrel market this year again, despite the escalation, Mr Gill said. <\/p>\n

US toll<\/p>\n

The US has also reinstated its naval blockade on Iran, with President Donald Trump saying he would charge vessels a tax to cross the strait under the watch of American forces.<\/p>\n

In a post on social media, Mr Trump described the US<\/a> as the \u201cguardian of the Hormuz Strait\u201d and said that as a \u201cmatter of fairness\u201d, the US<\/a> would be reimbursed by vessels transiting the waterway \u201cat the rate of 20 per cent on all cargo shipped\u201d.<\/p>\n

A 20 per cent fee<\/a> on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz could set a single supertanker back around $34 million every trip, at current oil prices. The surprise announcement by Mr Trump is a complete U-turn from Washington\u2019s stated policy that no nation has the right to impose transit fees in the strait.<\/p>\n

Mr Gill however said Standard Chartered\u2019s oil price estimates do not factor in proposed tolls either by US or Tehran.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

US hits Iran with one-way attack drones<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the moment that’s not something we’re incorporating,\u201d he said. The narrative has been changing with regularity and there is no certainty if \u201cthere is going to be a toll at all \u2026 we just have a bunch of public pronouncements\u201d.<\/p>\n

Analysts, he said, can run different scenarios in terms of how a toll can impact prices, but \u201csitting here today, without having insight into what the equilibrium of the conflict ends up at, it’s very hard to say\u201d, Mr Gill added. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tolls on tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz are not a factor in oil price projections, with flare-ups…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":82825,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[21387],"tags":[31042,234,31041,24,3450,330,20677,3040],"class_list":["post-82824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-standard-chartered","tag-business-team","tag-energy","tag-gcc","tag-iran","tag-oil-price","tag-standard","tag-standard-chartered","tag-story"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/116918711996436030","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82824\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}