{"id":84199,"date":"2026-07-16T12:40:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T12:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/84199\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T12:40:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T12:40:10","slug":"oil-to-average-80-a-barrel-over-the-next-few-months-says-standard-chartered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/84199\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil to average $80 a barrel over the next few months, says Standard Chartered"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil prices are expected to stay range-bound around $80 a barrel over the next few months before easing towards $70 by the end of the year, as high global inventories continue to cushion markets against a sharper price shock, said Manpreet Gill, chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered.<\/p>\n

Speaking at a media briefing, he said there was unusually high crude oil stockpiles across strategic, commercial and floating inventories worldwide ahead of regional tension, which helped avert a much bigger spike in prices.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if you reopened trade tomorrow morning, it would take time to physically bring production and shipping fully back online. Any normalisation process involves weeks and months, not something instantaneous,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.<\/a><\/p>\n

On Thursday afternoon, Brent and WTI were trading at $79.39 and $84.54 a barrel, respectively. Crude oil prices jumped to over $100 after the US-Israel-Iran war.<\/p>\n

A sustained return to $100 a barrel or higher would require a far more severe and prolonged disruption to actual supply than seen so far, he said, adding that a full return to $60 this year is unlikely, though it remains possible in 2027.<\/p>\n

He stressed that global supply and inventory levels will ultimately determine how markets absorb any shock.<\/p>\n

Dollar\u2019s gradual weakening<\/p>\n

Standard Chartered CIO expects the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through the second half, resisting pressure to hike despite a recent uptick in bond yields and the dollar.<\/p>\n

Gill attributed part of that uptick to markets testing the credentials of an incoming Fed governor \u2013 a pattern he said has historically accompanied leadership transitions at the central bank.<\/p>\n

Unlike 2022, he said, today\u2019s rate-hike risk is limited because the US labour market is no longer showing signs of a wage-price spiral.<\/p>\n

\u201cWages are not rising, and new job growth is not at the same pace,\u201d he said, adding that this should allow the Fed to avoid raising rates \u2013 supporting a resumption of gradual dollar weakness, which he said is important for capital flows into emerging market equities and bonds, including in the Gulf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Optimistic on equities <\/p>\n

The bank remains overweight equities overall, with the US as its key regional pick on the strength of earnings, and has reinstated an overweight position on Asia ex-Japan.<\/p>\n

Gill pointed to narrowing earnings-growth gaps between the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d technology stocks and the broader market as a signal that investors should widen their exposure.<\/p>\n

\u201cA rotation could mean you start to see catch-up in Indian and Chinese equities, and the broader emerging market space,\u201d he said, noting that recent Asian gains have been concentrated in semiconductor-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan.<\/p>\n

On the Gulf, Gill said UAE equities have shown greater correlation with non-oil economic and population growth than with oil prices, in contrast to Saudi Arabia\u2019s more oil-sensitive market.<\/p>\n

Credit spreads across the region\u2019s bond markets, he noted, have not widened as much as expected during recent tensions, reflecting high credit quality, though this leaves valuations comparatively expensive.<\/p>\n

\"Waheed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Oil prices are expected to stay range-bound around $80 a barrel over the next few months before easing…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84200,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[21387],"tags":[255,37066,37064,8791,37065,225,37062,20677,37063,6120],"class_list":["post-84199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-standard-chartered","tag-china","tag-credit-spreads","tag-emerging-markets-dollar-bonds","tag-equities","tag-manpreet-gill","tag-oil","tag-overweight","tag-standard-chartered","tag-underweight","tag-us-equities"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@UnitedKingdom\/116929706284934516","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84199\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84200"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/britain\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}