Just days before Premier Danielle Smith is expected to reveal her government’s bid for a new West Coast pipeline, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada’s emissions will be higher in the next few years than what Ottawa had previously envisioned.
In a video address posted on social media, Carney said Trudeau-era ambitions for emissions reductions were “not sustainable.”
He said those policies would have made energy too expensive for Canadians while constraining the oilpatch, just as trading partners are looking to Canada for energy — and as the country seeks to diversify exports away from the United States.
Carney also drew a direct line between his energy policies and national unity, arguing that a stricter environmental regime proposed by the Trudeau government was an “open opportunity for those people who wish to pull Canada apart.”
“We can’t afford to restrain the growth of an important part of our energy mix, oil and gas, to meet a short-term goal,” Carney said.
The prime minister’s remarks came at a crucial time — on the eve of Canada Day, when Smith vowed to have a pipeline proposal ready and submitted to the federal Major Projects Office in Calgary.
A spokesperson for the premier said a “major announcement” is coming on Thursday to outline Alberta’s submission.
The pipeline — part of Ottawa’s and Alberta’s energy pact — is contingent on a multi-billion-dollar carbon capture and storage project, which also requires approval from major oilsands producers.
Carney said the previous government’s climate plan was well-intentioned and well-suited to the conditions at the time it was designed, but things have changed in the past decade.
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at a meeting with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Calgary on May 15, 2026 before signing an agreement on oil pipeline approvals and carbon pricing.
“Our neighborhood hasn’t been this hostile since Canada was founded,” Carney said. “The world hasn’t been this unstable geopolitically since the end of the Second World War.
“We must establish stability amidst this chaos.”
No private proponent has come forward with financial support for the pipeline, which could carry one million barrels per day of Alberta crude to the coast of British Columbia, feeding energy-hungry markets in Asia. Ottawa and Alberta have both said the line would need some kind of private backing.
Coastal First Nations and B.C.’s provincial government are opposed to the pipeline, with both citing environmental concerns and an existing federal tanker ban in coastal waters.
The memorandum of understanding on energy also laid the groundwork for several other agreements between the two governments, including an industrial carbon price, methane equivalency and environmental impact assessments.
Carney said nobody knows how long the global economy will rely on conventional energy. But, until then, as much of the fuel as possible should come from Canada.
Mark Parsons, chief economist with Alberta bank ATB Financial, said it was inevitable that the old federal plan would be revisited, particularly as priorities shifted to fast-tracking major projects.
“We should be working on producing our emissions intensity over time, but still being globally competitive,” Parsons said. “We don’t want to see those emissions just go somewhere else.”
Parsons said the country must continue to invest in technologies such as carbon capture and emissions reduction — which can be sold to the rest of the world — while staying competitive globally.
“We would talk about becoming an energy superpower and these longer-term goals, but I think we have a short-term problem we need to address.
“We need growth — and where’s it going to come from?”
“We’re kind of at that critical moment where we do need to get shovels in the ground,” Parsons said.