July 5, 2026
Our latest wave of federal political tracking finds remarkably little movement in the political landscape. This survey was done entirely before news of the agreements between British Columbia and Canada and the news about a new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast. It was also done mostly before the Trump Administration announced it would not be renewing CUSMA.
After our previous survey suggested that the surge in optimism and Liberal momentum that materialized in the spring, this latest wave indicates Canadians have largely settled into a stable political environment. Virtually every major indicator is either unchanged or has shifted only marginally.
Views about the direction of the country are identical to where they were two weeks ago. Government approval has eased slightly but remains firmly positive. Mark Carney continues to enjoy substantially stronger personal ratings than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. And while the Liberals have given back a point in vote intention, so have the Conservatives, leaving the governing party with the same eight-point national advantage it held in our previous survey.
Taken together, the data suggest that neither party has been able to fundamentally change the political conversation over the past two weeks.
That is significant because the environment remains one in which Canadians continue to express concerns about affordability and the broader economy while, at the same time, maintaining relatively positive evaluations of the government and its leader. Rather than dissatisfaction translating into greater support for the opposition, Canadians appear to be distinguishing between ongoing concerns about the country’s challenges and their assessment of who is best positioned to manage them.
The result is a political environment that remains broadly favourable to the Liberal government. Canadians are neither becoming dramatically more optimistic nor markedly more pessimistic. Instead, public opinion appears to have settled into a period of relative equilibrium.
Direction of the Country: Canadians Remain Divided, but Continue to Feel Better About Canada Than the World
Today, 42% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction while 44% believe it is on the wrong track.
Those numbers are effectively unchanged from two weeks ago and reinforce the picture of a public that remains divided about Canada’s trajectory but considerably less pessimistic than it was earlier this year.
Views of the broader world remain overwhelmingly negative. Just 14% believe the world is headed in the right direction while 73% believe it is on the wrong track. Perceptions of the United States are even more pessimistic, with only 13% saying it is headed in the right direction compared with 78% who believe it is on the wrong track.
The optimism gap between perceptions of Canada and the rest of the world therefore remains substantial. Canadians continue to believe their own country is performing considerably better than the international environment, a dynamic that has persisted throughout much of the past several months.
Optimism remains strongest among older Canadians, with 48% of those aged 60 and over believing Canada is headed in the right direction. Regional differences also remain pronounced, with optimism highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%), Atlantic Canada (47%), and British Columbia (46%), while Alberta and Quebec continues to be the least optimistic province at 36%.
Political affiliation continues to shape perceptions of the country’s direction. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Liberal voters believe Canada is headed in the right direction, compared with just one-quarter (25%) of Conservative supporters.
The broader implication is that while Canadians remain far from uniformly optimistic, neither is there evidence that attitudes are deteriorating. Public sentiment has stabilized.
Mood of the Country – Jul 2, 2026
n=2,366 Canadians
MoE ±2.02%
Jun 25–Jul 2, 2026
Summary
Right Direction by Subgroup
Trend
Methodology
Direction of the Country
Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?
Canada
42%
Right Direction
44%
Wrong Track
The World
14%
Right Direction
73%
Wrong Track
The USA
13%
Right Direction
78%
Wrong Track
42% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 44% say it is on the wrong track — a near-even split. Views on the world (14% right direction) and the USA (13% right direction) remain deeply pessimistic.
Who is Optimistic About the Direction of the Country?
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction, by subgroup
RegionGenderAgeIncomeCommunity2025 Vote
Older Canadians (60+, 48%) and those in SK/MB (48%) are most optimistic about the country’s direction. Liberal 2025 voters are far more likely (64%) to say Canada is on the right track than Conservative voters (25%).
Right Direction — Canada Trend (Feb 2020 – Jul 2, 2026)
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction
WaveRight Direction
Feb 202036%Mar 202034%May 202043%Jun 202042%Jul 202041%Jul 2020b39%Aug 202039%Sep 3, 202038%Sep 21, 202038%Sep 29, 202034%Oct 7, 202035%Nov 13, 202042%Nov 25, 202039%Dec 202040%Jan 202137%Feb 3, 202137%Feb 16, 202138%Feb 22, 202139%Mar 5, 202142%Mar 17, 202142%Mar 30, 202140%Apr 14, 202136%Apr 21, 202133%May 12, 202138%May 28, 202145%Jun 1, 202145%Jun 16, 202147%Aug 11, 202146%Aug 17, 202141%Oct 20, 202143%Nov 30, 202142%Jan 12, 202237%Feb 8, 202234%Feb 22, 202234%Mar 25, 202241%Apr 9, 202239%May 6, 202241%May 24, 202238%May 30, 202238%Jun 8, 202239%Jun 24, 202235%Jul 18, 202233%Jul 28, 202233%Aug 25, 202233%Aug 31, 202234%Sep 14, 202236%Oct 26, 202234%Nov 30, 202234%Jan 16, 202331%Jan 30, 202330%Feb 18, 202331%Mar 4, 202331%Mar 10, 202329%Mar 21, 202330%May 12, 202331%Jun 11, 202329%Jun 27, 202327%Jul 25, 202328%Aug 7, 202326%Aug 23, 202328%Sep 4, 202327%Sep 13, 202326%Oct 5, 202326%Oct 15, 202325%Nov 1, 202328%Nov 12, 202323%Nov 28, 202326%Dec 12, 202327%Jan 9, 202424%Jan 23, 202425%Feb 7, 202425%Feb 22, 202425%Mar 7, 202425%Mar 21, 202425%Apr 9, 202426%Apr 16, 202426%Apr 29, 202425%May 15, 202425%May 21, 202426%Jun 13, 202427%Jun 26, 202425%Jul 10, 202423%Jul 23, 202425%Aug 7, 202425%Aug 18, 202425%Sep 12, 202425%Sep 26, 202427%Oct 10, 202425%Oct 22, 202425%Nov 5, 202427%Nov 20, 202424%Dec 4, 202422%Dec 16, 202422%Dec 17, 202419%Jan 9, 202523%Jan 14, 202524%Jan 27, 202523%Feb 11, 202524%Feb 25, 202530%Mar 12, 202530%Mar 20, 202530%Mar 25, 202530%Mar 27, 202528%Apr 3, 202530%Apr 8, 202530%Apr 10, 202532%Apr 15, 202530%Apr 21, 202529%Apr 27, 202531%May 21, 202535%Jun 5, 202538%Jun 19, 202536%Jul 2, 202540%Jul 15, 202536%Aug 7, 202536%Aug 20, 202535%Sep 2, 202535%Sep 17, 202535%Oct 1, 202534%Oct 15, 202534%Oct 29, 202533%Nov 6, 202533%Nov 27, 202537%Dec 10, 202535%Jan 14, 202635%Jan 27, 202638%Feb 10, 202642%Feb 24, 202642%Mar 11, 202642%Mar 25, 202642%Apr 8, 202640%Apr 22, 202641%May 6, 202644%May 20, 202647%Jun 3, 202640%Jun 17, 202642%Jul 2, 202642%
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadians from June 25 to July 2, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.02%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Cost of Living Continues to Dominate the Issue Agenda
The rising cost of living remains, by a considerable margin, the most important issue facing the country.
Almost seven in ten Canadians (69%) rank affordability among the three most important issues facing Canada today. The economy follows at 37%, housing affordability at 33%, healthcare at 31%, and Donald Trump and his administration at 29%. Immigration ranks sixth at 24%, followed by crime and public safety at 18% and job security at 17%.
What is striking is how little the issue agenda has changed.
Canadians continue to identify essentially the same priorities they have for months. Affordability remains dominant, while economic issues broadly continue to outweigh virtually every other concern.
The issue ownership landscape also remains remarkably consistent.
The Liberals continue to hold advantages among voters focused on healthcare, climate change, inequality and poverty, Indigenous reconciliation, artificial intelligence, Donald Trump, housing affordability, and, notably, both the economy and the rising cost of living. Among voters who rank affordability as a top-three issue, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points (43% to 38%). Among those focused on the economy, they hold a three-point advantage (43% to 40%).
The Conservatives continue to dominate among voters focused on immigration (57% to 24%) and crime and public safety (57% to 30%), while holding a narrower advantage among those concerned about job security and unemployment (43% to 40%).
Perhaps most importantly, the government continues to remain competitive on the economic issues that dominate Canadians’ attention. That remains one of the defining characteristics of the current political environment.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
Top Priorities for the Federal Government
n=2,366 Canadians · MoE ±2.02% · Jun 25–Jul 2, 2026
Overall
By Age
By Gender
By Region
By Current Vote
Vote by Issue
Methodology
Top Three Priorities for Federal Government Right Now
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
The rising cost of living
69%
Housing affordability and accessibility
33%
Donald Trump and his administration
29%
Crime and public safety
18%
Job security and unemployment
17%
Climate change and the environment
13%
Inequality and poverty
12%
The rise of artificial intelligence
8%
The threat posed by China and Russia
5%
Indigenous reconciliation
4%
The rising cost of living tops the list at 69%, followed by the economy (37%), housing affordability (33%), healthcare (31%), and Donald Trump and his administration (29%).
Top Issues — By Age Group
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
Blue = highest in row · Red = lowest in row
Issue18–2930–4445–5960+NETThe rising cost of living64%69%74%67%69%The economy30%37%40%40%37%Housing affordability and accessibility37%33%39%27%33%Healthcare30%23%31%39%31%Donald Trump and his administration21%20%27%42%29%Immigration23%31%21%22%24%Crime and public safety17%25%15%15%18%Job security and unemployment30%19%18%6%17%Climate change and the environment13%13%10%16%13%Inequality and poverty18%13%12%8%12%The rise of artificial intelligence5%8%8%10%8%The threat posed by China and Russia4%5%3%6%5%Indigenous reconciliation8%5%2%2%4%
Top Issues — By Gender
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
Blue = highest in row · Red = lowest in row
IssueMaleFemaleNETThe rising cost of living67%71%69%The economy43%32%37%Housing affordability and accessibility28%39%33%Healthcare27%36%31%Donald Trump and his administration30%28%29%Immigration30%19%24%Crime and public safety16%20%18%Job security and unemployment17%16%17%Climate change and the environment14%12%13%Inequality and poverty12%12%12%The rise of artificial intelligence7%9%8%The threat posed by China and Russia6%4%5%Indigenous reconciliation4%3%4%
Top Issues — By Region
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
Blue = highest in row · Red = lowest in row
IssueBCABSK/MBONQCATLNETThe rising cost of living67%78%72%70%62%68%69%The economy33%39%38%38%40%33%37%Housing affordability and accessibility30%26%25%37%34%38%33%Healthcare39%26%34%27%31%48%31%Donald Trump and his administration28%22%26%25%43%24%29%Immigration16%29%21%25%28%17%24%Crime and public safety22%18%22%22%8%14%18%Job security and unemployment18%21%20%20%7%15%17%Climate change and the environment18%9%10%11%16%15%13%Inequality and poverty8%11%14%11%15%14%12%The rise of artificial intelligence9%12%5%7%8%6%8%The threat posed by China and Russia4%6%8%4%4%5%5%Indigenous reconciliation7%2%6%3%3%2%4%
Top Issues — By Current Vote Intention
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
Blue = highest in row · Red = lowest in row
IssueCPCLiberalNDPBQUndecidedNETThe rising cost of living72%66%70%67%66%69%The economy43%37%29%32%31%37%Housing affordability and accessibility30%30%48%43%44%33%Healthcare24%36%35%24%43%31%Donald Trump and his administration16%41%21%36%23%29%Immigration40%14%11%36%14%24%Crime and public safety29%12%8%10%16%18%Job security and unemployment20%15%18%9%16%17%Climate change and the environment4%18%24%14%15%13%Inequality and poverty9%13%22%13%14%12%The rise of artificial intelligence5%9%7%10%11%8%The threat posed by China and Russia5%5%2%4%4%5%Indigenous reconciliation4%4%5%0%2%4%
Federal Vote by Top Issue
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? — Undecided removed. Among those who select each issue as a top 3 priority.
Issue
Liberal
Conservative
Advantage
The rising cost of living43%38%LPCThe economy43%40%LPCHealthcare53%28%LPCDonald Trump and his administration63%20%LPCHousing affordability and accessibility41%33%LPCImmigration24%57%CPCJob security and unemployment40%43%CPCCrime and public safety30%57%CPCClimate change and the environment61%11%LPCInequality and poverty47%28%LPCThe threat posed by China and Russia44%40%LPCIndigenous reconciliation48%36%LPCThe rise of artificial intelligence50%24%LPC
Liberals lead among voters who prioritise healthcare (+25), climate change (+50), and Donald Trump (+43). Conservatives lead among those who prioritise immigration (+33) and crime (+27).
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadians from June 25 to July 2, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.02%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
abacusdata.ca
Government Approval Remains Positive
Approval of the federal government remains firmly positive.
Today, 54% approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing while 31% disapprove. Compared with two weeks ago, approval is down one point while disapproval is up one point. The government’s net approval score is +23.
Regionally, the net approval score is +26 in BC, -8 in Alberta, +21 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, +22 in Ontario, +26 in Quebec, and +27 in Atlantic Canada.
Among those who voted Liberal in April 2025, the net approval is +82 while it’s -38 among Conservative voters and +25 among NDP voters.
When we look at the relationship between top issue and government approval, we find that among those ranking the cost of living as a top 3 issue, the net score for the Carney government is +18 (51% approve vs. 33% disapprove), +19 among those who rate housing as a top issue, and +23 among those who rate the economy as a top issue. Among those who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue, the government’s net score is +56, almost as high as those who rate Donald Trump as a top issue (+58).
Although these overall changes are minimal, they reinforce the broader story emerging from this survey: stability rather than momentum.
Government approval remains well above disapproval and continues to sit comfortably above where it stood before Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year.
Since taking office, Carney has generally benefited from Canadians viewing his government as competent and steady during a period of considerable global uncertainty. There is little evidence in this latest survey that perception has materially changed.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
Government Approval
n=2,366 Canadians · MoE ±2.02% · Jun 25–Jul 2, 2026
Current
Trend
Methodology
Government Approval — Current
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?
Total Approve
54%
▲ +1 from Jun 17
Total Disapprove
31%
▲ +1 from Jun 17
Neither approve nor disapprove
15%
54% of Canadians approve of the job the Carney government is doing — up 1 point from June 17. Disapproval stands at 31%, also up 1 point. Net approval is +23 points.
Approval Trend — Jan 2025 to Jul 2, 2026
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?
Wave
Approve
Disapprove
Net
Jan 9, 202521%63%-42Jan 14, 202522%64%-42Jan 27, 202523%60%-37Feb 11, 202527%56%-29Feb 25, 202528%56%-28Mar 12, 202534%50%-16Mar 20, 202539%25%+14Mar 25, 202541%25%+16Apr 8, 202549%24%+25May 21, 202550%24%+26Jun 5, 202553%23%+30Jun 19, 202552%25%+27Jul 2, 202552%25%+27Jul 15, 202552%27%+25Aug 7, 202550%27%+23Aug 20, 202549%30%+19Sep 2, 202548%30%+18Sep 17, 202550%30%+20Oct 1, 202546%31%+15Oct 15, 202548%32%+16Oct 29, 202547%34%+13Nov 6, 202544%34%+10Nov 27, 202548%32%+16Dec 10, 202547%35%+12Jan 14, 202647%34%+13Jan 27, 202654%31%+23Feb 10, 202652%29%+23Feb 24, 202652%30%+22Mar 11, 202656%28%+28Mar 25, 202654%30%+24Apr 8, 202654%30%+24Apr 22, 202654%29%+25May 6, 202657%28%+29May 20, 202659%27%+32Jun 3, 202652%31%+21Jun 17, 202655%30%+25Jul 2, 202654%31%+23
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadians from June 25 to July 2, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.02%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
abacusdata.ca
Carney Continues to Hold a Clear Advantage Over Poilievre
Mark Carney continues to enjoy considerably stronger personal ratings than Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Today, half of Canadians (50%) have a positive impression of the Prime Minister while 31% have a negative impression, giving him a net favourability rating of +19.
Carney remains particularly popular in Quebec, where his net impression stands at +36, and among Canadians aged 60 and over (+32). His ratings also remain exceptionally strong among Liberal supporters, where his net score reaches +79.
Pierre Poilievre’s numbers have also changed very little.
Today, 38% hold a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 43% hold a negative impression, giving him a net favourability rating of -5.
Poilievre continues to perform strongly among Conservative voters and in Alberta, where he enjoys a net positive rating of +28. However, he remains underwater nationally and continues to face challenges expanding his appeal beyond his existing coalition. He remains well underwater among those aged 60 and over (-28).
NDP leader Avi Lewis remains less well known than either of the two principal leaders. He records a net impression score of -10, with one-quarter of Canadians saying they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion.
The leadership environment therefore remains largely unchanged. Carney continues to enjoy a substantial advantage over his principal opponent, one that continues to underpin the Liberal Party’s broader political position.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
Party Leader Impressions
n=2,366 Canadians · MoE ±2.02% · Jun 25–Jul 2, 2026
Summary
Carney Detail
Carney Trend
Methodology
Party Leader Impressions — Summary
Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?
Leader
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Don’t Know
Net
Carney
50%
17%
31%
2%
+19
Poilievre
38%
15%
43%
4%
-5
Lewis
17%
31%
27%
25%
-10
Carney leads with a +19 net impression (50% positive, 31% negative). Poilievre sits at −5 (38% positive, 43% negative). Lewis is at −10 (17% positive, 27% negative).
Mark Carney — Impressions by Subgroup
Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney?
CARNEY — Overall: 50% Positive · 17% Neutral · 31% Negative · Net +19
Subgroup
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Don’t Know
Net
Total50%17%31%2%+19Male47%16%34%3%+13Female53%18%27%2%+2618–2952%18%26%4%+2630–4452%17%29%2%+2345–5948%17%33%2%+1560+48%16%34%2%+14Liberal voter79%10%9%2%+70CPC voter19%16%62%3%-43NDP voter52%22%23%3%+29
Carney Net Impression — Trend (Jan 2025 – Jul 2, 2026)
Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney?
Wave
Positive
Negative
Net
Jan 27, 202533%20%+13Feb 11, 202535%20%+15Feb 25, 202536%26%+10Mar 11, 202537%30%+7Mar 20, 202540%28%+12Mar 25, 202541%30%+11Mar 27, 202542%31%+11Apr 3, 202545%30%+15Apr 8, 202547%28%+19Apr 10, 202548%28%+20Apr 15, 202545%32%+13Apr 21, 202546%33%+13Apr 27, 202546%34%+12May 5, 202546%29%+17May 21, 202549%29%+20Jun 5, 202551%27%+24Jun 19, 202548%29%+19Jul 2, 202549%28%+21Jul 15, 202549%28%+21Aug 7, 202548%29%+19Aug 20, 202548%30%+18Sep 2, 202545%32%+13Sep 17, 202548%30%+18Oct 1, 202545%31%+14Oct 15, 202546%31%+15Oct 29, 202546%32%+14Nov 6, 202545%33%+12Nov 27, 202545%31%+14Dec 10, 202545%35%+10Jan 14, 202646%33%+13Jan 27, 202653%30%+23Feb 10, 202651%29%+22Feb 24, 202650%30%+20Mar 11, 202653%28%+25Mar 25, 202651%30%+21Apr 8, 202651%29%+22Apr 22, 202651%29%+22May 6, 202654%28%+26May 20, 202656%26%+30Jun 3, 202651%30%+21Jun 17, 202651%30%+21Jul 2, 202650%31%+19
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadians from June 25 to July 2, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.02%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
abacusdata.ca
Liberals Maintain an Eight-Point National Lead
If a federal election were held today, the Liberals would receive 44% of the committed vote, compared with 36% for the Conservatives. The Bloc Québécois stands at 7%, the NDP at 8%, while both the Greens and People’s Party are at 2%.
Compared with our previous survey, both the Liberals and Conservatives have declined by one point, as has the NDP, while the Bloc has gained one.
The overall balance of the race therefore remains virtually unchanged.
The Liberals continue to lead comfortably in Ontario (49% to 37%), Quebec (45% to 31%), and Atlantic Canada (55% to 33%). The Conservatives have expanded their advantage in Alberta, where they lead 62% to 23%. British Columbia is competitive (Liberal 44% to Conservative 36%).
Age continues to define the coalition supporting each party. The Liberals lead Canadians aged 60 and over by 25 points (55% to 30%), while the Conservatives perform best among voters aged 30 to 44. Younger voters remain more fragmented, with the NDP retaining comparatively stronger support among those under 30, although it has declined over the past few weeks.
The Liberal accessible voter universe also remains materially larger than the Conservative one. Today, 57% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal compared with 48% who would consider voting Conservative.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
Federal Vote Intention
n=2,366 Canadians · MoE ±2.02% · Jun 25–Jul 2, 2026
Overall
Certain to Vote
By Region
By Age & Gender
By Education
Methodology
Federal Vote — Overall
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed)
Current Vote ShareJune 17, 2026ChangeLiberal44%45%-1Conservative36%37%-1NDP8%9%-1BQ7%6%+1Green2%2%NCPeople’s2%1%+1Other0%1%-1
Liberals lead at 44%, followed by Conservatives at 36%, NDP at 8%, and BQ at 7%. Compared to June 17, the Liberals and Conservatives are each down 1 point, while BQ and People’s are each up 1 point.
Federal Vote Intention — Those Certain to Vote
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed)
Vote ShareTurnout Boost / SuppressionLiberal45%+1Conservative37%+1NDP8%NCBQ7%NCGreen2%NCPeople’s2%NCOther0%NC
Among those certain to vote, Liberals lead at 45% and Conservatives at 37%. Higher turnout provides a +1 boost to both the Liberals and Conservatives relative to the all-respondent figure.
Federal Vote — By Region
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed)
LiberalConservativeNDPBQGreenPeople’sOtherCanada44%36%8%7%2%2%0%BC42%38%12%0%7%1%0%AB23%62%11%0%0%3%1%SK/MB42%46%8%0%1%2%0%ON49%37%9%0%2%3%0%QC45%19%3%31%1%1%0%ATL55%33%8%0%2%1%1%
Liberal support is highest in Atlantic Canada (55%) and Ontario (49%). Conservative support peaks in Alberta (62%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%). The BQ dominates in Quebec at 31%.
Federal Vote — By Age & Gender
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed)
LiberalConservativeNDPBQGreenPeople’sOtherCanada44%36%8%7%2%2%0%Male43%39%7%6%1%2%0%Female46%32%9%8%3%2%0%18 to 2945%33%11%5%4%2%1%30 to 4435%43%10%6%3%2%1%45 to 5941%39%8%9%1%2%0%60 and over55%30%4%7%1%2%0%
Liberal support is strongest among those 60 and over (55%) and women (46%). Conservative support peaks among those 30–44 (43%) and men (39%). NDP support is highest among those 18–29 (11%).
Federal Vote — By Educational Attainment
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed)
ConservativeLiberalNDPGreenBQPPCOther
Liberal support is highest among university-educated Canadians (48%), while Conservative support is relatively consistent across education levels (35–37%). The NDP performs best among college-educated Canadians (9%).
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadians from June 25 to July 2, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.02%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · Jul 2, 2026
abacusdata.ca
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“The defining characteristic of Canadian politics right now is stability.
Two weeks ago, we concluded that the political environment had settled after the extraordinary changes that followed Mark Carney becoming Prime Minister. This latest survey reinforces that conclusion.
Almost every important measure tells essentially the same story. Canadians remain divided about the direction of the country, but those attitudes haven’t changed. Government approval remains positive. Mark Carney continues to be substantially more popular than Pierre Poilievre. The Liberal lead remains eight points nationally.
What’s particularly interesting is that Canadians continue to rank affordability and the economy as their biggest concerns, yet those concerns have not translated into stronger support for the Conservatives. In fact, among voters who prioritize both the cost of living and the economy, the Liberals remain competitive and even hold narrow advantages.
That suggests many Canadians continue to separate their concerns about the challenges facing the country from their assessment of who is best equipped to deal with them and what is the cause of those challenges.
In June, we asked Canadians what they felt was most responsible for the state of Canada’s economy. Overall, 37% pointed to Donald Trump and U.S. tariffs, 22% pointed to the Carney government while 17% blamed the previous Trudeau government. Another 12% pointed to global forces beyond Canada’s control. Among those who thought the country was in a recession, only 31% felt the Carney government was most responsible for it. Another 29% pointed to Trump and tariffs while 21% said it was the Trudeau government’s choices.
For the Conservatives, the challenge remains expanding beyond a coalition that seems highly motivated but not yet broad enough to win nationally. Pierre Poilievre continues to enjoy strong support among Conservative voters, but his overall personal ratings remain underwater and have shown little evidence of improving over the past several months.
For the Liberals, the coalition that delivered victory remains largely intact. The party continues to hold advantages among older Canadians, in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while maintaining positive government approval and a Prime Minister whose personal ratings remain well above those of his principal rival.
Politics can change quickly when multiple indicators begin moving in the same direction. Right now, however, that simply isn’t happening.
Instead, what we continue to see is a political environment that remains remarkably stable and continues to favour in the Carney Liberals.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,366 Canadian adults from June 25 to July 2, 2026.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census figures to ensure the sample matched the Canadian population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is ±2.02 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Abacus Data conducts ongoing national public opinion research to better understand the attitudes, priorities, and expectations of Canadians. This survey is part of our continuing federal political tracking study measuring public opinion, political preferences, leadership evaluations, and issue priorities across the country.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
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