With Alberta’s referendum only a couple of months away, and the expected presence of about 40 frontbench Liberals and government caucus members at this year’s Calgary Stampede, some senior Alberta Conservatives say the Liberals are using the annual event to begin laying the groundwork for gains in the province for the next federal election. Several Alberta political players say that given Prime Minister Mark Carney’s nationwide popularity in the polls, the Conservatives should be concerned that a number of Calgary and Edmonton-area ridings have become increasingly competitive.
“All the Liberal MPs descending upon Stampede is a big deal for us,” said one Conservative MP on a not-for-attribution basis to The Hill Times in order to speak candidly. “They are attempting to infiltrate our city when it’s weak. It’s an attempt to win more seats. They’re doubling down on seats in Calgary and Edmonton.”
The source said Alberta is the heartland of the Conservative Party base, but a number of ridings in major urban centres like Calgary and Edmonton are now in play.
The source cited seat projections by polling aggregator 338Canada.com that suggested a significant number of ridings in Calgary and Edmonton areas are not the safe Conservative strongholds they once were.
According to the polling aggregator, Calgary Centre is currently a Liberal/Conservative toss-up, Calgary Crowfoot is Conservative-leaning, Calgary East and Calgary Heritage are CPC-likely, Calgary McKnight is Liberal-leaning, Calgary Nose Hill is CPC-leaning, and Calgary Signal Hill and Calgary Skyview are Conservative-leaning.
In the province’s capital city, Edmonton Gateway, Edmonton Manning and Edmonton Northwest are CPC-leaning, Edmonton Riverbend is Liberal-leaning, Edmonton Southeast is LPC/CPC-leaning and Edmonton West is LPC-leaning.
With the exception of Edmonton Riverbend, which is held by Liberal MP Matt Jeneroux—a former Conservative—all the ridings listed above in which the Liberals have a strong chance, as per 338Canada.com, are currently held by Conservative MPs.
“That’s brutal. In Calgary? There are only two safe seats in Calgary for the Conservatives,” said the Conservative MP. “They [the Liberals] are doubling down on the possibility [of winning more seats]. That’s a smart thing to do.”
If an election were to happen now, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, pictured with his wife Ana Poilievre, left, at the 2023 Calgary Stampede, would have to spend time campaigning in Calgary and Edmonton to save held Conservative seats, something rarely seen in Alberta, the bedrock of the party base, says prominent Alberta political strategist Stephen Carter. Photograph courtesy of X
In the last election, the Liberals were able to elect only two of Alberta’s 37 MPs: Corey Hogan (Calgary Confederation, Alta.) and Emergency Management Minister Eleanor Olszewski (Edmonton Centre, Alta.). After the election, Jeneroux left the Conservative caucus to join the Liberals. The NDP was able to win only one seat with Heather McPherson (Edmonton Strathcona, Alta.) in 2025.
In the 2021 election, the Conservatives won 30 of 34 seats, and the Liberals and the NDP earned two seats, each. In 2019, the Conservatives won 33 seats, the NDP one, and the Liberals failed to win any seats. In 2015, the Conservatives won 29, the Liberals, four and the NDP one seat.
Winning a Conservative nomination in many Alberta ridings has long been viewed as a guaranteed seat in the House.
In private conversations, Alberta Conservative MPs have often joked that campaigning at home costs them votes. So, they typically spend election campaigns helping Conservative candidates in other provinces. High levels of right-leaning votes meant that, in the past, a Conservative nomination win in Alberta was almost always a guaranteed seat in the House of Commons. Nomination elections are seen as the real contests, not general elections.
Poilievre no longer as popular as when Trudeau was PM: Prof. Bratt
In the 2025 election, the Liberals won 169 of 343 seats in the House—just three short of a majority. In an increasingly competitive game of margins where the Liberals, Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and NDP are vying for the most seats, even a marginal shift in support can determine the outcome. The People’s Party of Canada can siphon enough votes from the Conservatives to cost them close races, while the Greens and the NDP can split the progressive vote and hurt Liberal candidates in competitive ridings. Reflecting this highly fragmented political environment, only two of the last eight federal elections have yielded majority governments, while the other six have resulted in minorities.
So, every seat counts in an election for the political parties and this is why winning even a few more seats for the Liberals in a province like Alberta could be critical in the outcome of the next election.
The Liberals now hold a majority government. The Liberals right now are enjoying a double-digit lead over the second-place Conservatives in national public opinion polls, but it remains to be seen what those numbers will be when the next election is called.
Meanwhile, some current and former Alberta Conservative MPs and political insiders interviewed for this article said that their MPs in major urban centres are concerned about the Liberal momentum in the province at this time. They said there’s no doubt in their minds that the main reason as to why so many Liberals are coming to the Stampede this year is not as much to bolster support for a united Canada prior to the referendum, but also to help their party gain more prominence in a province that’s usually not a politically friendly territory for federal Liberals.
“We are losing momentum in Calgary and Edmonton. … Hopefully, things will change by time next election is called,” said one veteran Alberta Conservative, adding they’re hoping the next election is “not in the near future.”
Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said he will be watching to see whether politicians attending the Stampede will spend their time talking primarily to political insiders, or engaging directly with Albertans.
A significant share of those who attend the Stampede, he said, are politicians at different levels of government, government officials, and lobbyists.
He said last year’s Stampede was Carney’s (Nepean, Ont.) first in office, and attracted a large contingent of senior public servants because of the G7 summit. But this year, Bratt said, Alberta’s fall referendum is top of mind for both federal and provincial politicians. He said the federalist side currently appears well-positioned to prevail, but the outcome will largely depend on the 15 to 20 per cent of swing voters who could still be persuaded by either side. Those voters, Bratt said, are likely to determine not whether the federalist side wins, but whether the winning margin is 60-40 or 80-20.
“I will be very curious to see who they [politicians] talk to because there is what I call the political stampede of the GR [government relations] firms, and the fundraisers, and the barbecues,” said Bratt. “Are they only speaking to other politicos, or are they talking to regular Albertans? That we’ll have to see.”
Bratt said Carney is currently the most popular political leader in Canada, with higher approval ratings than Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre (Battle River—Crowfoot, Alta.), NDP Leader Avi Lewis, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi. As a result, Bratt said, Conservatives should be concerned that a number of urban ridings in Calgary and Edmonton have become increasingly competitive for the Liberals. He attributed Carney’s popularity to several factors, including Albertans considering him a progressive conservative in his policies, his memorandum of understanding with the Alberta government on pipelines, and that Poilievre no longer enjoys the same level of popularity he did when Justin Trudeau was prime minister.
“There’s winnable seats here, but not outside of the cities. Could it be six seats, could it be eight seats? I don’t know, but there’s growth area. If I was sitting in Calgary Centre as a Conservative, if I was [incumbent MP] Greg McLean, I’d be worried right now.”
Corey Hogan was the only Liberal candidate elected from Calgary in the last federal election. But according to recent polling projections, a number of other Calgary and Edmonton-area ridings are in play for the governing party in the next election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade
McLean was not available for an interview for this article last week.
Carney’s ‘the best progressive conservative PM we’ve had for a while’: Stephen Carter
Alberta-based pollster Janet Brown said the Calgary Stampede attracts hundreds of thousands of people each year, making it an ideal opportunity for politicians to meet high numbers of Albertans in one place. About 1.5-million attended the event last year. Regardless of the referendum or any other political issue, the Stampede is one of the country’s premier public events, and politicians can accomplish a great deal in a short period of time by attending it, said the CEO of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
“It’s one of the most well-attended political events of the season,” said Brown. “Calgary is a very Conservative place, the Liberals have trouble winning seats here, but you come at Stampede, it’s a way to maximize the audience that you talk to. And if the Liberals are going to swing any seats, the Stampede is a good place to try and make that happen.”
She pointed out that some of the urban ridings in play at this time were also seen as potential gains for the Liberals in the last election, but, in the end, Carney was able to elect only two MPs.
Stephen Carter, a high-profile Alberta political strategist who has successfully managed a number of campaigns at the municipal, provincial and federal levels, said that while about 40 Liberal MPs are expected to attend this year’s Calgary Stampede, a large number of Conservative MPs will also be there.
Carter said the strong turnout from all parties is a positive development because it gives MPs an opportunity to speak directly with Albertans about the upcoming referendum and Alberta’s place in Confederation. He argued that Carney is currently the most popular federal leader in Alberta, and that around 10 ridings in the Calgary and Edmonton regions are now competitive. The large Liberal presence at the Stampede, Carter said, will help lay the groundwork for the party’s candidates in those ridings ahead of the next election.
If an election were held today, Carter said, Poilievre would likely have to spend significant time campaigning in Calgary and Edmonton to defend seats that have traditionally been considered safe Conservative.
“He’s [Carney] the best progressive conservative prime minister we’ve had for quite a while; that seems to be the sentiment here in Alberta,” said Carter.
“He seems to understand and care about Alberta, and his willingness to put an MOU together with the province just kind of skyrocketed him forward. I mean, people are just impressed, and they’re happy, which is very unusual for Alberta. Usually, we’re just not impressed and pretty angry.”
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
Cabinet ministers and Liberal MPs expected to attend the Calgary Stampede
Prime Minister Mark Carney
Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson
Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon
Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald
International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu
Treasury Board President Shafqat Ali
Immigration Minister Lena Diab
Emergency Management Minister Eleanor Olszewski
Culture Minister Marc Miller
Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Rebecca Alty
Justice Minister Sean Fraser
Secretary of State for Combatting Crime Ruby Sahota
Secretary of State for Labour John Zerucelli
Secretary of State for International Development Randeep Sarai
Secretary of State for Canada Revenue Agency Wayne Long
Secretary of State for Nature Nathalie Provost
Liberal MP Kody Blois
Liberal MP Leslie Church
Liberal MP Mike Kelloway
Liberal MP Claude Guay
Liberal MP Tom Osborne
Liberal MP Ginette Lavack
Liberal MP Matt Jeneroux
Liberal MP Ben Carr
Liberal MP Helena Jaczek
Liberal MP Emma Harrison
Liberal MP Jessica Fancy
Liberal MP Terry Duguid
Liberal MP Sima Acan
Liberal MP Giovanna Mingarelli
Liberal MP Will Greaves
Liberal MP Jake Sawatzky
Liberal MP Eric St-Pierre
Get Today’s Headlines Newsletter
Wake up to the day’s top political and policy headlines. Weekday Mornings.
By entering your email address you consent to receive email from The Hill Times containing news, analysis, updates and offers. You may unsubscribe at any time. See our privacy policy
Liberal MP Zoe Royer
Liberal MP Juanita Nathan
Liberal MP Fares Al Soud
Liberal MP Parm Bains
Liberal MP Peter Schiefke
Liberal MP Maggie Chi
*The list has been compiled based on interviews with Liberal sources.
Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor at The Hill Times. He reports on parliamentary caucuses, nomination contests, party leadership campaigns, Prime Minister’s Office, and cabinet. Rana loves to chat with sources on the record or on a not-for-attribution basis, especially when they have verifiable story tips that could be followed as news stories. Born and raised in Pakistan, Rana speaks Punjabi, Urdu, and Hindi. See all stories BY ABBAS RANA