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We now know Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “Elbows Up” rhetoric during last year’s federal election was a political slogan rather than a strategy for dealing with the trade and tariff policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Contrary to Carney’s assurance to Canadians in the House of Commons last Oct. 8 under questioning from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre that, “we have the best deal with the Americans and … we will get an even better deal because we’re negotiating,” it’s now obvious that’s not going to happen.

The best deal to which Carney was referring was the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on trade that Canada and Mexico wanted to renew for 16 years until 2042, but which the U.S. rejected on July 1 in favour of annual reviews of the agreement until 2036, when it will expire.

Whatever emerges from the latest negotiations aimed, from Canada’s perspective, at averting Trump’s latest threat to impose 50% tariffs on $28-billion worth of Canadian goods on Aug. 19 — including some currently tariff free under CUSMA —this much is clear.

Our new trading relationship with the U.S. will not be as good for us as it was under CUSMA.

Carney is now offering concessions to the Americans not in the hopes of maintaining zero tariffs on many Canadian exports to the U.S. that were previously tariff free, but rather in hopes of achieving lower tariffs than for other countries seeking access to the U.S. market.

It’s all playing out pretty much as Ian Bremmer, president of the New York-based Eurasia Group, which has close ties to the Carney government, predicted in March 2025.

He said Canadian political leaders would talk tough about Trump in the lead-up to the April 2025 federal election but, “quietly fold shortly after the vote to ensure that ongoing relations with the U.S. remain functional.”

(Bremmer insisted at the time he was talking about what he expected the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre would do, although polls showed Carney and the Liberals leading by that point.)

We’ll never know whether Poilievre could have negotiated a better deal than what Carney gets — assuming he gets one.

But what we know is that it won’t be as good as the deal we had.