Quebec election could end in a PQ minority, ‘but nothing is set in stone,’ pollster says

QUEBEC — A new public opinion poll suggests the Parti Québécois could be headed for a minority government in the fall election.

But the Léger poll produced for the Journal de Montréal and TVA also shows one voter in two (49 per cent) could change their mind on which party to support. That number is almost unchanged (a two-percentage-point difference) from June.

According to the poll published Tuesday, the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has 30 per cent of the vote and leads among francophone voters with 36 per cent of that vote.

After a difficult summer, Quebec’s Liberals under Leader Charles Milliard follow, with the support of 24 per cent of the sample. The party has 13 per cent of the francophone vote. That is a drop of seven percentage points from June.

In third place is the Coalition Avenir Québec and its new leader, Christine Fréchette. The CAQ’s support now is pegged at 20 per cent, including 25 per cent of the francophone vote.

The francophone vote is key to winning elections because it represents voters in many regions and ultimately represents more ridings in the legislature.

Support for the Quebec Conservative Party is pegged at 13 per cent and Québec solidaire has 11 per cent.

But the poll shows that despite a summer spent campaigning, the leaders of the five major parties have not managed to solidify their vote, which points to a suspenseful race to the Oct. 5 vote.

Support at this early stage of the race is considered soft, even undecided and likely to shift as the issues and personalities in the race become clearer, pollsters said.

“Two weeks before the election launch, we can speculate, but nothing is set in stone,” Léger pollster Jean-Marc Léger said.

The election call is expected in the last week of August.

There are negatives for the CAQ. As a Pallas Data-Qc125-L’actualité poll also showed last week, the level of dissatisfaction in the Fréchette government remains high at 45 per cent.

Asked their opinion on the last eight years of CAQ government, 59 per cent say they are dissatisfied.

A total of 23 per cent say St-Pierre Plamondon would be the best premier for Quebec, while Fréchette came second with a score of 18 per cent. Milliard is the choice of 12 per cent of the sample.

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Of those polled, 25 per cent say St-Pierre Plamondon most represents change in Quebec. In second place, with 13 per cent, is Milliard.

The poll asked respondents which issues are most likely to influence their vote. Forty-eight per cent said health and social services while 42 per cent said the cost of living.

Despite Fréchette and Milliard’s decision to hammer away at the issue, the prospect of another independence referendum only concerns eight per cent of those questioned.

At a stop in the Beauce region Tuesday, Fréchette repeated her standard line on polls.

“My poll is what I hear on the ground,” Fréchette told reporters. “Since I arrived in April I must say we have made good headway. When I arrived after my election in mid-April, not many people were saying there would be a three-way race.”

The Léger poll was conducted online Aug. 7-9 and is based on the answers of 998 Quebecers. The margin of error on a random sample of that size would be plus or minus 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.

On Quebec Politics

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