How large will Ottawa’s population become? The answer to that question will drive the nature of our city for decades, but it’s one over which Ottawans have frustratingly little say.
In a city that already has a shortage of housing, a shortage of health care and an unemployment rate of 6.9 per cent, a bigger population seems like the last thing we need. And yet, the provincial government says, “Ottawa, the fastest growing census division in Ontario, is projected to grow by 53.8 per cent, from 1.19 million in 2025 to 1.83 million in 2051.”
It’s a surprising figure, especially given that just six years ago, the province said Ottawa’s population would rise to only 1.4 million by 2046. It’s difficult to identify the trends that would drive Ottawa’s population even higher.
What does the provincial government imagine that all these future Ottawans will do for work? Our most important employer, the federal public service, has peaked and is already in numerical decline. It’s difficult to imagine any future administration making it significantly larger.
The population growth is not projected to come from more people having babies. As the province says in its population projection, natural increase in Ontario was expected to be a meagre 20,000 people in 2025-26. By 2031-32, there will be no expansion through births and from 2031 to 2051, as more people will die than are born.
The province is counting almost entirely on immigration to continue to fuel growth, expecting that it will recover from the current dip and add about one per cent to the provincial population each year in the future.
In essence, the provincial government is looking to the past to predict the future. That might not be smart. The future flow of immigrants depends on Canadians’ appetite for substantial immigration as well as the willingness of people from other countries to come here. Neither of those is a sure thing.
The federal government’s uncontrolled enthusiasm for immigration during the final years of prime minister Justin Trudeau harmed the image of immigration. An Environics Research poll last year found that 56 per cent of Canadians thought the number of immigrants was too high.
As well, the housing, health care and job shortages that trouble people already here are deterrents for potential immigrants to Ontario.
Only one part of Ottawa’s imagined population growth is a sure thing. Next year, when Ottawa councillors revise the Official Plan, they will have to use the province’s new, bigger numbers for future housing demand.
A recent consulting report done for the city estimates the impact of the new population numbers. To meet the imagined need, Ottawa will have to add 2,740 hectares of land beyond today’s urban boundary, about the equivalent of Barrhaven. That’s bad news for city councillors and others who think housing demand can be largely met with intensification, and the urban boundary can be contained.
Even the 2,740-hectare amount contains a degree of optimism about intensification and a shift toward apartments. Another scenario that is based on the most likely market demand would require 3,380 hectares.
Not to be overly cynical, but the PC government has been pushing for years to get municipalities to make available more development land than is strictly required under provincial rules. Ottawa politicians have found that unattractive. Juicing up population numbers is a rather clever way of making them see things differently.
This fall’s municipal election is unlikely to generate much rational thinking about how to house an expanding population. Constraining the urban boundary will be a popular position, but the city consulting report shows that’s not going to work.
The solution is staring us in the face, but it’s not considered politically palatable. The National Capital Greenbelt is a failed 1950s attempt to contain growth. Instead, it has pushed growth farther from the centre. At about 20,000 hectares, the Greenbelt has more than enough land to meet housing needs for the next 25 years.
If the future hordes do materialize, it’s a solution that will look increasingly sensible with time.
Randall Denley is an Ottawa journalist and author. Contact him at randalldenley1@gmail.com
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