Carney Liberals Lead by Seven Nationally as Quebec Support Drops

August 16, 2026

Our latest national tracking survey was conducted as Canada-U.S. trade negotiations entered another sensitive phase, with a new round of U.S. tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 19 and growing attention on what Canada might be prepared to concede in exchange for a deal.

That debate has been higher in Quebec.

During the field period, Canadian dairy farmers publicly warned the federal government against making further concessions on dairy and supply management. Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated that his government remained committed to the system, but reporting about the negotiations raised the possibility of changes in how existing dairy import quotas are administered, while broader speculation about concessions to the United States received significant coverage in Quebec.

The timing is notable because our new survey finds a substantial change in federal vote intentions in Quebec.

Nationally, the Liberals continue to lead, and in fact their advantage over the Conservatives has widened slightly to seven points. The Liberals are at 42%, the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP at 10%, the Bloc Québécois at 8%, the Greens at 4%, and the People’s Party at 2%. Both major parties have lost support since our last survey, but the Conservatives have fallen by slightly more.

Underneath those national numbers, however, the story is more complicated.

Liberal support in Quebec has fallen 11 points in two weeks, from 48% to 37%, while the Bloc Québécois has risen seven points to 35%. Outside Quebec, Liberal support is completely unchanged at 43%.

At the same time, most of the broader indicators we track have barely moved. National government approval remains at 52%. Canadians remain almost evenly divided on whether the country is heading in the right direction. Mark Carney’s personal numbers remain strong and have actually improved nationally. And in Quebec specifically, Carney’s personal standing is essentially unchanged despite the sharp movement in Liberal vote intention.

The other important change is in how Canadians view Pierre Poilievre. His negative rating has risen to 46%, the second-highest level we have measured in our tracking, and his net impression has fallen to -11.

Meanwhile, the public agenda continues to evolve. The cost of living remains the dominant concern, but attention to the economy, Donald Trump and climate change has increased again.

The national race therefore remains relatively stable. But Quebec does not.

Liberals Lead Conservatives by Seven Points

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 35% Conservative, 10% NDP, 8% Bloc Québécois, 4% Green and 2% People’s Party.

Compared with our survey completed on July 29, Liberal support is down two points while Conservative support is down three. NDP support is up one, the Bloc is up two nationally, the Greens are up one, and the People’s Party is up one.

The Liberal advantage therefore moves from six points to seven.

The decline in both major parties is worth noting. This is not a poll in which Liberal losses nationally have translated into Conservative gains. Instead, support has dispersed toward smaller parties, with much of the Liberal movement concentrated in Quebec.

Abacus Data

Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 2026

Federal Vote Intention: Liberals Lead by 7 as Both Front-Runners Slip

n=1,499 Canadians · August 7–12, 2026 · MoE ±2.5% · Undecided removed

Overall
Trend Line
By Region
Age & Gender
Methodology

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed.

Federal Vote Intention, August 2026

The Liberals hold a 7-point lead at 42%, with the Conservatives at 35%. Both front-runners lost ground since July 29, the Liberals down 2 and the Conservatives down 3. The smaller parties absorbed the movement, with the Bloc Québécois up 2 to 8%, the NDP up 1 to 10%, and the Greens up 1 to 4%.

Change shown from the July 29, 2026 wave. Undecided respondents removed before calculating vote share.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. Tracking since July 2024.

The Conservative lead of 47 to 20 in January 2025 has fully reversed. The two parties crossed in late March 2025 and the Liberals have led in every wave since, peaking at 46.9% in May 2026. The latest reading has both easing back, with the Liberals at 41.6% and the Conservatives at 35.4%, while the NDP has recovered to 9.6% from a low of 6.0% in May 2025.

Vote Intention Trend, July 2024 to August 2026

Conservative peak

47.0%

January 2025, a 27-point lead

Crossover

March 2025

Liberals move ahead and stay ahead

Liberal peak

46.9%

May 2026, high point of the series

Current gap

6.2 pts

Liberal 41.6% to Conservative 35.4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%Jul 2024Oct 2024Jan 2025Mar 2025Apr 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Liberals move ahead, March 202542%35%10%

60 waves of Abacus Data national tracking. Values are weighted vote share with undecided removed, so they may differ from rounded topline figures by less than a point.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (By region)

The Liberals lead in Ontario 48 to 37 and in Atlantic Canada 48 to 33, while the Conservatives dominate Alberta with 58%. Quebec remains a three-way contest in which the Liberals lead at 37%, the Bloc Québécois takes 35%, and the Conservatives fall to 18%. The Conservatives also lead Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 46%, and British Columbia is close at 42 to 36.

Federal Vote Intention by Region

PartyCanadaBCABSK/MBONQCATLLiberal42%42%30%36%48%37%48%Conservative35%36%58%46%37%18%33%NDP10%14%11%15%10%4%10%Bloc Québécois8%0%0%0%0%35%0%Green4%6%1%1%2%5%8%People’s2%1%0%3%2%1%1%Other0%0%0%0%1%1%0%

The leading party in each region is highlighted. Undecided respondents removed. Small regional samples carry wider margins of error.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (By age and gender)

Liberal support climbs steeply with age, from 34% among those 30 to 44 to 51% among those 60 and over. The Conservatives are remarkably flat across the age range, between 34 and 37% in every group, which leaves the age gradient to the Liberals and the NDP. NDP support is concentrated among the young at 19% of those 18 to 29 against 3% of those 60 and over. The gender gap is modest, with the Conservatives at 37% among men and 34% among women.

Federal Vote Intention by Gender and Age

PartyCanadaMaleFemale18 to 2930 to 4445 to 5960 and overLiberal42%41%42%35%34%41%51%Conservative35%37%34%35%35%37%34%NDP10%8%11%19%15%7%3%Bloc Québécois8%9%7%1%8%10%9%Green4%4%3%8%5%2%2%People’s2%2%1%2%3%1%0%Other0%0%1%0%1%1%0%

The leading party in each group is highlighted. Undecided respondents removed. Subgroup samples carry wider margins of error.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Vote intention figures exclude undecided respondents. Trend figures are drawn from Abacus Data national tracking since July 2024.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 12, 2026 · n=1,499 · MoE ±2.5%

abacusdata.ca

A Deeper Look into Quebec

The most important change in this survey is happening Quebec.

Two weeks ago, the Liberals had a 20-point lead over the Bloc Québécois in the province: 48% to 28%.

Today that advantage is just two points.

Liberal support has fallen to 37%, a decline of 11 points. Bloc support has increased seven points to 35%. The Conservatives are at 18%, down two, while the NDP has risen from 2% to 4% and the Greens from 2% to 5%.

The contrast with the rest of Canada is striking.

Outside Quebec, Liberal support is exactly where it was two weeks ago at 43%. Conservative support outside Quebec has declined from 43% to 40%, while the NDP has edged up from 10% to 11%.

In other words, the entire decline in the Liberal national vote share comes from Quebec.

Regional estimates are naturally more volatile than national results, so the magnitude of a single-wave change should be interpreted with some caution. But the movement is large enough, and concentrated enough, to warrant trying to understand what may have changed.

There is some evidence of softer attitudes toward the federal government itself in Quebec over the past two weeks. Government approval in the province has declined.

But other measures have barely moved.

Mark Carney’s net impression in Quebec is +32 today. Two weeks ago it was +31. In other words, the sharp decline in Liberal vote intention is not accompanied by a comparable deterioration in Quebecers’ personal views of the Prime Minister.

The Liberal accessible voter pool in Quebec also remains much larger than its current vote share. Fifty-eight percent of Quebecers say they would consider voting Liberal, only one point lower than the 59% measured in our previous wave. The Conservative accessible pool is 29%, while the NDP pool is 20%.

An 11-point decline in current vote intention alongside an essentially unchanged personal rating for Carney and only a one-point decline in the Liberal accessible voter pool looks different from a broad collapse in attitudes toward either the Prime Minister or the Liberal brand.

It suggests that, at least for now, a portion of the Liberal coalition in Quebec may have become less firmly attached rather than fundamentally inaccessible.

Why Might Quebec Be Moving?

We cannot establish from this tracking survey that any one event caused the movement.

But the timing creates several plausible explanations.

First, the Canada-U.S. trade relationship remains unusually salient in Quebec. Fifty-two percent of Quebecers identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing Canada. That is higher than in any other region: 41% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 37% in British Columbia, 34% in Alberta, 32% in Ontario and 30% in Atlantic Canada.

That means developments in the negotiations may simply register more strongly in Quebec than elsewhere.

And during this field period, the question of agricultural concessions and supply management became part of the discussion. Dairy organizations warned Ottawa against additional concessions, while reporting on possible Canadian compromises added to scrutiny of the negotiations. Carney publicly reaffirmed his support for supply management while visiting the Saguenay.

The issue also has an immediate political dimension in the region. A federal byelection in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is scheduled for August 31, further increasing attention on Canada-U.S. trade and Quebec economic interests.

Second, Quebec’s issue agenda is changing in other ways.

Concern about climate change and the environment has risen to 28% in Quebec, up four points in two weeks and ten points since mid-July. Quebec now has the highest level of concern about climate change of any region in the country.

Concern about Trump is essentially unchanged from its unusually high level two weeks ago, moving from 53% to 52%. Concern about the economy has declined from 35% to 32%, while the cost of living is almost unchanged at 59%.

So, Quebecers are currently more focused than most Canadians on two issues — Trump and climate change — that are connected to questions about government performance, sovereignty, external vulnerability and how Ottawa represents Canadian and Quebec interests.

Finally, Quebec is moving closer to a provincial election campaign. The provincial election is scheduled for October 5 and is expected to be called on August 29.

A provincial election is obviously separate from federal politics, and the provincial and federal party systems should not be treated as interchangeable.

But an approaching Quebec campaign can increase the salience of Quebec-specific interests, identity and the province’s relationship with Ottawa. Combined with the renewed focus on dairy, trade and concessions to Washington, it may be creating a political environment in which some voters are reassessing their federal preferences even though their view of Carney himself has not materially changed.

For now, the evidence points to a change in vote choice in Quebec that is considerably larger than the change in the underlying attitudes we normally expect to move with it.

That makes the next wave particularly important to confirming this as either a one-off or a trend.

Abacus Data

Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 2026

Quebec: Bloc Surges to Within 2 Points of the Liberals

n=1,499 Canadians · August 7–12, 2026 · MoE ±2.5%

Quebec vs Rest of Canada
Quebec: Two-Week Change
Methodology

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed.

The Bloc Québécois has surged 7 points to 35% in Quebec while the Liberals dropped 11 points to 37%, cutting a 20-point Liberal lead to just 2 points in two weeks. Outside Quebec the picture is entirely different and far more stable: the Liberals hold at 43% and now lead by 3, not because they gained but because the Conservatives slipped 3 points to 40%. The Conservative position in Quebec remains the weakest of any major party in either geography, at 18% against 40% in the rest of the country.

Bloc gain in Quebec

28% to 35% in two weeks

Liberal drop in Quebec

-11

48% to 37%, largest single move

Quebec Liberal lead

2 pts

down from 20 points on July 29

Conservative gap

22 pts

18% in Quebec, 40% elsewhere

Federal Vote Intention: Quebec and the Rest of Canada

QuebecRest of CanadaPartyNowChangeJuly 29NowChangeJuly 29Liberal37%▼ -1148%43%NC43%Conservative18%▼ -220%40%▼ -343%NDP4%▲ +22%11%▲ +110%Bloc Québécois35%▲ +728%0%NC0%Green5%▲ +32%3%NC3%People’s1%▲ +10%2%▲ +11%Other1%▲ +10%0%NC0%

Change shown against July 29, 2026. Undecided respondents removed. Columns may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Regional samples carry wider margins of error than the national figure.

Selected measures among Quebec respondents, comparing the August 7 to 12 wave with the July 29 wave.

Quebec sentiment softened across the board over two weeks, with one clear exception: impressions of Yves-François Blanchet improved 4 points to 51% positive. His net impression of +30 now sits essentially level with Mark Carney’s +32, having trailed by 10 points a fortnight ago. Federal approval in Quebec fell 6 points to 50%, but the loss moved into the neutral column rather than into opposition: neither rose 7 points to 27% while disapproval actually eased by 1 to 23%. Views on the country’s direction also cooled, leaving right direction at 38% and wrong track at 37%, effectively tied.

Blanchet net

+30

up 6 points, now level with Carney

Carney net

+32

down 2 points from +34

Approval net

+27

down 5, loss went to neutral

Direction net

down from +8, now a tie

Public Opinion in Quebec: Change Over Two Weeks

QuebecMeasureNowChangeJuly 29Direction of the countryHeaded in the right direction38%▼ -442%Off on the wrong track37%▲ +334%Impressions of Mark CarneyPositive55%▼ -156%Neutral21%▲ +318%Negative23%▲ +122%Impressions of Yves-François BlanchetPositive51%▲ +447%Neutral25%▲ +322%Negative21%▼ -223%Federal government approvalApprove50%▼ -656%Neither approve nor disapprove27%▲ +720%Disapprove23%▼ -124%Top three issuesDonald Trump and his administration52%▼ -153%

Change shown against July 29, 2026. Quebec subsample only, which carries a wider margin of error than the national figure. Top issue figures reflect the share selecting the item among their top three.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Vote intention figures are reported with undecided respondents removed. Quebec and rest-of-Canada results are subsamples and therefore carry wider margins of error than the national figure. Net impression is calculated as the share with a positive impression minus the share with a negative impression.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 12, 2026 · n=1,499 · MoE ±2.5%

abacusdata.ca

Liberals Lead in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada

Outside Quebec, the regional picture continues to favour the Liberals in several of the country’s largest and most electorally important regions.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 11 points, receiving 48% compared with 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 10%.

In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 42%, six points ahead of the Conservatives at 36%. The NDP receives 14% and the Greens 6%.

The Liberals also have a sizeable advantage in Atlantic Canada, leading the Conservatives 48% to 33%.

The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta, where they receive 58% compared with 30% for the Liberals.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives lead 46% to 36%, with the NDP at 15%.

The result is a Liberal coalition that remains highly competitive outside Quebec even as its previously commanding advantage in that province has largely disappeared.

Age Remains an Important Divide, but the Gap Has Narrowed Among Younger Canadians

The age pattern has also shifted somewhat.

Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied at 35%, while the NDP receives 19%.

Among those aged 30 to 44, the Conservatives have a one-point advantage, 35% to 34%, with the NDP at 15%.

The Liberals lead among Canadians aged 45 to 59, 41% to 37%, and retain their largest advantage among those aged 60 and over, where they lead 51% to 34%.

There remains relatively little gender difference in Liberal support. The party receives 41% among men and 42% among women. Conservative support is 37% among men and 34% among women, while the NDP receives 8% among men and 11% among women.

Government Approval Holds at 52%

Despite movement in vote intentions, assessments of the federal government are almost completely unchanged nationally.

Fifty-two percent of Canadians approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing. Thirty-one percent disapprove and 17% neither approve nor disapprove.

Approval is unchanged from July 29, while disapproval is down one point.

The government’s net approval rating therefore improves slightly from +20 to +21.

The stability here is important because it provides another indication that the change in national Liberal vote intention is not being driven by a broad deterioration in assessments of the government.

Abacus Data

Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 2026

Government Approval: 52% Approve, 31% Disapprove

n=1,499 Canadians · August 7–12, 2026 · MoE ±2.5%

Overall
Trend
Subgroups
Methodology

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?

Approval of the Carney government holds at 52%, against 31% who disapprove, for a net of +21. The reading is effectively unchanged from July 29, with approval flat and disapproval down a single point. Intensity remains modest on both sides: 15% strongly approve and 15% strongly disapprove, with the bulk of opinion sitting in the softer mostly approve category at 37%. A further 17% neither approve nor disapprove.

Federal Government Approval

Strongly approve 15%

Mostly approve 37%

Neither 17%

Mostly disapprove 16%

Strongly disapprove 15%

Change shown against July 29, 2026. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government is doing? Tracking since February 2025.

The government has been net positive in every wave since late March 2025. The series opens on the previous government, with approval at 27% against 56% disapproval in February 2025. Disapproval collapsed from 50% to 25% between March 12 and March 20, 2025, coinciding with the change in Liberal leadership, and approval climbed steadily through the spring. Approval peaked at 59% in May 2026 and has since eased to 52%, while disapproval has drifted back up from its low of 23% in June 2025.

Approval high

59%

May 2026, peak of the series

Approval low

27%

February 2025, previous government

Disapproval low

23%

June 2025, best reading

Disapproval high

56%

February 2025, previous government

Approval and Disapproval Trend, February 2025 to August 2026

20%30%40%50%60%Feb 2025Mar 2025Jun 2025Aug 2025Oct 2025Dec 2025Feb 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Aug 202652%31%

37 waves of Abacus Data national tracking. Readings before March 2025 reflect the previous Liberal government under Justin Trudeau. Values rounded to the nearest whole point.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing? Results by region, age, and 2025 vote.

Approval is remarkably even across the country, ranging only from 47% in Alberta to 57% in Atlantic Canada. Every region is net positive, including Alberta at +10. Quebec stands out for the largest neutral bloc at 27% and the lowest disapproval at 23%. By age, approval peaks at 58% among those 60 and over and bottoms at 47% among those 30 to 44, while the 45 to 59 group is the most disapproving at 39%. The sharpest divide is partisan: 83% of 2025 Liberal voters approve, against 61% of 2025 Conservative voters who disapprove. The government still holds 52% approval among 2025 NDP voters.

Approval by Region

ResponseBCABSK/MBONQCATLCanadaApprove55%47%54%53%50%57%52%Neither12%16%16%13%27%15%17%Disapprove33%37%30%34%23%28%31%

Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve. Disapprove combines somewhat and strongly disapprove. Columns may not sum to 100 due to rounding. The highest approval figure in each block is highlighted.

Approval by Age

Response18 to 2930 to 4445 to 5960 and overCanadaApprove52%47%50%58%52%Neither25%23%12%12%17%Disapprove23%29%39%30%31%

Approval by 2025 Vote

ResponseLiberalConservativeNDPGreenBloc QuébécoisAll 2025 votersApprove83%24%52%44%31%55%Neither10%15%16%10%40%14%Disapprove7%61%33%46%29%31%

The final column covers 2025 voters only and therefore differs from the all-adult national figure of 52% approve and 31% disapprove.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Approve combines strongly approve and somewhat approve. Disapprove combines somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Trend figures are drawn from Abacus Data national tracking since February 2025; waves before March 2025 reflect the previous government.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 12, 2026 · n=1,499 · MoE ±2.5%

abacusdata.ca

Carney’s Numbers Hold While Poilievre’s Negatives Rise

Mark Carney remains the only major federal party leader with a positive net impression.

Fifty-one percent of Canadians have a positive impression of Carney and 31% have a negative impression, producing a net impression of +20.

Two weeks ago, Carney’s positive rating was 49% and his negative rating was 32%. His net impression has therefore improved three points from +17.

Pierre Poilievre has moved in the opposite direction.

Thirty-five percent of Canadians now have a positive impression of the Conservative leader, while 46% have a negative impression. His net impression is -11.

Two weeks ago, 37% viewed Poilievre positively and 43% negatively, for a net rating of -6.

At 46%, Poilievre’s negative rating is the second-highest we have measured in our tracking. His -11 net impression is also one of his weakest results, exceeded only by the -13 readings recorded earlier this year.

Poilievre remains highly popular among Conservative voters, with a net impression of +73 among those who voted Conservative in 2025.

But his ratings remain negative in British Columbia (-16), Ontario (-12), Quebec (-32) and Atlantic Canada (-10). His net impression is -22 among Canadians aged 60 and over.

Avi Lewis has a net impression of -10. Sixteen percent view him positively and 26% negatively, while 34% have a neutral impression and 24% do not know enough about him to offer an opinion. His net rating has improved slightly from -12 two weeks ago.

Abacus Data

Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 2026

Leader Impressions: Carney at +20, Poilievre Slips to -11

n=1,499 Canadians · August 7–12, 2026 · MoE ±2.5%

Leader Comparison
Trend Line
Carney by Subgroup
Poilievre by Subgroup
Methodology

Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?

Mark Carney holds a net impression of +20, while Pierre Poilievre sits at -11, a gap of 31 points. Carney is the only leader with more positive than negative impressions, at 51% positive against 31% negative. Poilievre draws the most negative reaction of the three, with 46% negative. Colleen Lewis remains largely undefined: 24% say they do not know enough to say and a further 34% are neutral, so her -10 net rests on a much softer base than the other two.

Party Leader Impressions

LeaderPositiveNeutralNegativeDon’t know enoughNetCarney51%16%31%2%+20Poilievre35%16%46%4%-11Lewis16%34%26%24%-10

Net impression is positive minus negative. Rows may not sum to 100 due to rounding. The leading value in each column is highlighted.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people? Net impression, tracking since January 2025.

Carney has been net positive in every wave since January 2025, while Poilievre has been under water in all but two. Carney peaked at +30 in May 2026 and has eased to +20 in the latest wave. Poilievre’s best reading was +2 in May 2025 and his worst was -13 in January 2026; he now sits at -11, a 5-point slide from July 29. The gap between the two leaders is currently 31 points.

Carney peak

+30

May 2026, high point of the series

Carney low

March 2025, still net positive

Poilievre peak

May 2025, his only positive reading

Poilievre low

-13

January 2026, deepest deficit

Net Impression Trend, January 2025 to August 2026

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Jan 2025Mar 2025Apr 2025Jun 2025Aug 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026-11%20%

45 waves of Abacus Data national tracking. Net impression is positive minus negative, rounded to the nearest whole point.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney? Net impression by subgroup.

Carney is net positive with every group except 2025 Conservative voters, where he sits at -43. He is strongest in Quebec at +32 and Atlantic Canada at +24, and exactly neutral in Alberta at 0. Support rises with income, from +16 among those under $35K to +30 among those earning $100K or more, and with age, from +11 among those 45 to 59 to +31 among those 60 and over. The urban to rural gradient is steep, at +26 in cities against +5 in rural areas. He also retains reach across party lines, at +14 among Bloc Québécois voters and +6 among NDP voters.

Net Impression: Mark Carney

Household income

Community

2025 vote

Net impression is positive minus negative. Bars are scaled to the largest absolute value shown. Subgroup samples carry wider margins of error.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre? Net impression by subgroup.

Poilievre is net positive in only five of the groups measured. His strength is concentrated in the Prairies, at +25 in Alberta and +14 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, alongside narrow positives in rural Canada at +4 and among middle earners at +2. Quebec is his weakest region by a wide margin at -32, and he is 22 points under water among those 60 and over. Beyond his own coalition, where 2025 Conservative voters give him +73, he faces deficits of -64 among Liberal voters, -63 among NDP voters, and -45 among Bloc Québécois voters.

Net Impression: Pierre Poilievre

Household income

Community

2025 vote

Net impression is positive minus negative. Bars are scaled to the largest absolute value shown. Subgroup samples carry wider margins of error.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Net impression is calculated as the share with a positive impression minus the share with a negative impression. Trend figures are drawn from Abacus Data national tracking since January 2025.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 12, 2026 · n=1,499 · MoE ±2.5%

abacusdata.ca

The Economy, Trump and Climate Change Are Becoming More Salient

The rising cost of living remains, by a wide margin, the most frequently cited issue facing Canada.

Sixty-one percent select it as one of their top three priorities.

But that number is down four points from two weeks ago.

Behind it, attention is increasing elsewhere.

The economy is selected by 38%, up two points.

Donald Trump and his administration are also at 38%, up three points.

Healthcare is at 34%, up one.

Climate change and the environment have risen another point to 19%.

At the same time, housing affordability and accessibility has fallen five points to 30%, while immigration is down two to 21%.

The result is another modest shift in the political agenda.

Affordability remains dominant. Canadians have not stopped worrying about their household finances.

But the relative weight of different forms of economic and political insecurity is changing.

The economy itself is becoming more salient. Trump remains central to how Canadians are thinking about the country’s future. And climate change continues to rise after increasing substantially during the summer.

Those movements matter politically because the two major parties attract voters with different issue priorities.

The National Mood Is Essentially Unchanged

Forty-three percent of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 42% say it is on the wrong track.

That is almost identical to two weeks ago, when Canadians were split 42% to 42%.

Views of the world and the United States are also virtually unchanged.

Fourteen percent believe the world is heading in the right direction compared with 75% who think it is on the wrong track.

Only 12% believe the United States is heading in the right direction, while 80% say it is on the wrong track.

Canadians therefore remain much more optimistic about their own country than they are about the environment around them.

And despite the movement in federal vote intentions, there is no evidence in these measures of a broad deterioration in national mood.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:

“The most important story in this poll is the difference between what is happening nationally and what is happening in Quebec.

Nationally, the political environment remains remarkably stable.

The Liberals lead by seven. Government approval is unchanged at 52%. Mark Carney has a +20 net impression. Forty-three percent think the country is heading in the right direction. And the Liberal accessible voter pool has actually grown to 59%.

Those are not the numbers we would normally associate with a governing party experiencing a broad deterioration in public opinion.

But Quebec has clearly moved.

Liberal support is down 11 points in two weeks, from 48% to 37%, while the Bloc is up seven points to 35%. Outside Quebec, Liberal support has not moved at all.

The question is why.

There is not a single piece of evidence that gives us a definitive answer.

Government approval has softened in Quebec, which suggests some dissatisfaction with Ottawa. But Mark Carney’s personal rating in the province is basically unchanged. His net impression is +32 today compared with +31 two weeks ago. And the Liberal accessible voter pool has moved only one point.

So, this does not look, at least yet, like a broad rejection of Carney or a collapse in the willingness of Quebecers to consider voting Liberal.

What has changed is the political context.

Quebecers are more focused on Donald Trump than Canadians anywhere else. Fifty-two percent identify Trump and his administration as a top issue.

That makes Quebec particularly sensitive to how the federal government manages the relationship with Washington.

And during this period, the possibility of further trade concessions — including attention around dairy — became part of the conversation.

We cannot say that caused the change. But when an electorate is unusually focused on Trump and Canada-U.S. negotiations, news suggesting Ottawa might concede on an issue as politically and economically sensitive in Quebec as dairy has the potential to matter.

There are other forces at work too.

Climate change has become considerably more salient in Quebec, rising from 18% in mid-July to 28% today.

And Quebec is only weeks away from the expected start of a provincial election campaign.

Those things are not necessarily connected to federal Liberal support. But together they point to a province entering a more politically engaged and potentially more volatile period, one in which Quebec-specific interests and judgments about Ottawa may be receiving more attention.

The fact that the Bloc is the principal beneficiary of the Liberal decline reinforces that interpretation.

At the same time, the Conservatives have not taken advantage nationally.

They are down three points to 35%, and Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers have worsened. His negative rating is now 46%, the second-highest we have measured, and his net impression has fallen to -11.

That continues to limit the Conservatives’ ability to convert dissatisfaction with the government into support for themselves.

Finally, the issue agenda keeps moving.

Cost of living remains dominant, but attention to it is down four points. The economy and Trump are now tied for second at 38%, both rising, while climate change continues to increase.

That creates a mixed political environment.

A greater focus on the economy can help the Conservatives. A greater focus on Trump and climate change tends to favour the Liberals.

For now, the national fundamentals remain more favourable to the Liberals than the topline decline might initially suggest.

But Quebec is a warning sign.

The Liberal coalition there has become much softer in a short period of time, even if the underlying relationship with Carney has not.

The national race looks stable but Quebec may be less settled.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data

Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 2026

Federal Vote Intention: A 7-Point National Lead Over a Divided Map

n=1,499 Canadians · August 7–12, 2026 · MoE ±2.5%

By Region
By Age and Sex
Liberal-Conservative Margin
Sample Sizes
Methodology

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for?

The Liberals lead nationally by 7 points, 42 to 35, but that single number conceals one of the most regionally divided maps in recent memory. Alberta is the most lopsided region on the board, Conservative by 28 points at 58 to 30, while Ontario and Atlantic Canada each hand the Liberals a double-digit lead at 48%. Quebec is a contest between the Liberals at 37% and the Bloc at 35%, with the Conservatives at just 18%, less than half their national number.

Vote Intention by Region

RegionConservativeLiberalNDPGreenBlocPeople’sOtherCanada35%42%10%4%8%2%0%British Columbia36%42%14%6%0%1%0%Alberta58%30%11%1%0%0%0%Saskatchewan / Manitoba46%36%15%1%0%3%0%Ontario37%48%10%2%0%2%1%Quebec18%37%4%5%35%1%1%Atlantic Canada33%48%10%8%0%1%0%

Undecided respondents removed. Rows may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Highlighting marks the three highest values in each party column. The Canada row is included as a reference and is highlighted where it falls in the top three. Saskatchewan / Manitoba and Atlantic Canada rest on small samples and should be read as directional.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (By sex and age)

Age is the sharpest fault line in this survey. Canadians 60 and over back the Liberals 51 to 34, a 17-point lead, while those aged 30 to 44 give the Conservatives a narrow edge at 35 to 34 and the youngest cohort splits evenly at 35 apiece. The NDP’s remaining support is heavily concentrated among the young, at 19% of those 18 to 29 against just 3% of those 60 and over. The gender gap is comparatively modest, with the Liberals ahead by 4 points among men and 8 among women.

Vote Intention by Sex

SexConservativeLiberalNDPGreenBlocPeople’sOtherMale37%41%8%4%9%2%0%Female34%42%11%3%7%1%1%

Undecided respondents removed. Highlighting marks the higher of the two values in each party column.

Vote Intention by Age Group

AgeConservativeLiberalNDPGreenBlocPeople’sOther18 to 2935%35%19%8%1%2%0%30 to 4435%34%15%5%8%3%1%45 to 5937%41%7%2%10%1%1%60 and over34%51%3%2%9%0%0%

Undecided respondents removed. Rows may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Highlighting marks the strongest age group in each party column.

Liberal share minus Conservative share in each subgroup, in percentage points.

Viewed as a margin, the national 7-point Liberal lead resolves into three distinct countries. The Prairies deliver decisive Conservative majorities, with Alberta 28 points and Saskatchewan and Manitoba 10 points in their favour. Ontario, Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia all lean Liberal, and among voters 60 and over the margin widens to 17 points. Only two groups sit at the dividing line: Canadians 18 to 29 are exactly tied, and those 30 to 44 favour the Conservatives by a single point.

Liberal Lead or Deficit by Subgroup

Positive values in red indicate a Liberal advantage; negative values in blue indicate a Conservative advantage. Calculated from rounded shares, so margins may differ by a point from unrounded data. In Quebec the Liberal-Conservative margin understates the real contest, where the Bloc Québécois sits at 35%, within 2 points of the Liberals.

Unweighted and weighted sample sizes for each subgroup reported above.

Vote intention is reported among the 1,301 respondents who named a party, weighting to 1,358, drawn from the full survey sample of 1,499 Canadians. The difference is accounted for by undecided respondents, who are removed from vote intention as is standard practice. Sample sizes matter for interpretation: Atlantic Canada rests on 67 unweighted respondents and Saskatchewan and Manitoba on 94, so both should be read as directional rather than precise.

Base Sizes by Subgroup

SubgroupUnweighted NWeighted NCanada1,3011,358British Columbia171189Alberta142152Saskatchewan / Manitoba9498Ontario529517Quebec298306Atlantic Canada6796Male683694Female61866418 to 2918922130 to 4436833345 to 5934032560 and over404479

Region, sex, and age subtotals each reconcile exactly to the Canada base in both unweighted and weighted terms. Subgroups with fewer than roughly 100 unweighted respondents carry margins of error substantially wider than the national figure.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,499 Canadians from August 7 to 12, 2026.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Vote intention is reported with undecided respondents removed, giving a base of 1,301 unweighted and 1,358 weighted respondents. Regional, sex, and age results are subsamples and carry wider margins of error than the national figure, particularly Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · August 12, 2026 · n=1,499 · MoE ±2.5%

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Carney Liberals Lead by Seven Nationally as Quebec Support Drops

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