Sunday’s loaded MLB slate features a pivotal matchup out of the American League East, as the New York Yankees attempt to stave off a three-game sweep by the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. 

The Yankees (68–55, 2nd AL East) have mustered just two runs over their last three games — all losses — as their lead over the Red Sox for the top Wild Card spot has shriveled to 2.5 games. The Blue Jays (61–64, 4th AL East) have won seven of their last nine games to seize the final Wild Card spot. 

Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got New York southpaw Ryan Weathers (5–7, 3.69 ERA) taking on Toronto right-hander Dylan Cease (7–5, 2.40 ERA). 

First pitch is at 1:37 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays enter as -120 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Yankees are +100 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 7.5 runs.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Preview

New York Yankees

Aaron Judge’s looming return can’t come soon enough for the Yankees. New York’s offense has completely vaporized without the three-time MVP, along with Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton. Since June 25, the club has been saddled with an MLB-worst batting average, on-base percentage, wOBA, wRC+, and strikeout rate during that stretch. They’ve managed only two runs through the first two games against the Blue Jays, wasting a pair of strong performances from Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler. 

Pitching has remained a constant strength for the Yankees, who lead the majors with a 2.84 collective ERA since the All-Star break. But with how the offense has looked of late, they’re asking a lot out of Sunday’s starter, Ryan Weathers. The young southpaw, 26, has performed well enough in his first year in pinstripes, posting a respectable 3.69 ERA (4.26 xERA) and a 1.21 WHIP across 23 starts (126.2 IP). Still, his Achilles’ heel has been the long ball; he’s liable for the 10th-most home runs per nine innings (1.28) in baseball. Weathers has coughed up five or more earned runs and two homers in both of his turns against the Blue Jays this year.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays aren’t going to repeat as AL East champions — let alone win another pennant — but they’re still very much in postseason contention. After Saturday’s win, they hold the third Wild Card spot with 37 games to play.

Toronto’s offense has been dreadful all season long, further hampered by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent placement on the seven-day injured list with a concussion. But that hasn’t stopped the Jays from piling up 18 hits through the first two games with the Yankees — with Alejandro Kirk supplying a home run, a double, and three RBIs in that span.  

Even with one of the weakest offenses in baseball, Toronto remains in playoff contention behind its stellar pitching staff, headlined by the tremendous Dylan Cease. The veteran right-hander, 30, is in a neck-and-neck race with Schlittler for the AL Cy Young Award, entering Sunday with a 2.40 ERA — fourth-lowest in MLB — and a 1.07 WHIP through 22 starts (131.1 IP) in 2026. Cease paces the AL in xERA (2.73) and strikeouts (191). And while he struggled in his lone start against the Yankees on May 19 — five earned runs over five innings — the All-Star will encounter a much thinner lineup in the rematch.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Pick, Best Bet

A matchup between two of the weakest offenses in baseball could very well fall below the game total of 7.5 runs, as it has in the first two matchups of this series. But with the pitching matchup in mind, the scale tips toward the Blue Jays. Dylan Cease vs. the Yankees offense should resemble Anthony Joshua vs. Jake Paul, while Ryan Weathers is just inconsistent enough to warrant hesitation in any matchup. Count on Toronto to complete the sweep at Rogers Centre. 

Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-120)

Lean: Under 7.5 Runs (-120)