QUEBEC — The Parti Québécois will deliver on its promise to hold an independence referendum if elected, but not before 2029, party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said Tuesday.
His political opponents rapidly fired back, accusing the PQ of setting in motion years of uncertainty and instability in delaying the move, which they say will cost the Quebec economy dearly.
“What this does is spread this thick layer of uncertainty over four years instead of the beginning of a PQ mandate,” Coalition Avenir Québec Leader and Premier Christine Fréchette said in Montreal.
“He has just admitted his project is too risky for Quebec in the current geopolitical climate, but without renouncing it completely,” added Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard. “He’s right about one thing: It’s risky.”
It was the latest curveball tossed by St-Pierre Plamondon into a fall election campaign that has yet to start officially.
With polls showing Quebecers don’t want a referendum and the PQ’s lead in the polls not growing, the party leader pulled a strategic move.
He reminded voters of what he said in February — that the PQ might put off a referendum given the climate created by U.S. President Donald Trump.
This time, St-Pierre Plamondon said his commitment to delay the referendum is definitive: Yes to a referendum, but much later in the four-year mandate he hopes to win on Oct. 5.
“Over the last few months, I have already stated that the PQ will exercise its judgment to choose the moment of the consultation,” he wrote in a long statement to Quebecers.
“I had, however, not formally expressed myself on the following point: A PQ government will not hold a referendum as long as Donald Trump is president of the United States.
“I am thus signalling, formally, that a PQ government will not hold a referendum before Jan. 20, 2029, which is the date of the end of Trump’s time in the White House.
“Until then, our priority remains clear: Govern Quebec with consistency and restore the confidence of Quebecers.”
Le Parti Québécois s’engage à ne pas tenir de référendum tant que Donald Trump sera président.
Je m’adresse à vous ce matin à titre de chef de parti qui travaille ardemment à trouver la voie qui permettra de remettre le Québec sur les rails au cours des prochaines années. Comme… pic.twitter.com/1OoUhfJzS2
— Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (@PaulPlamondon) August 18, 2026
The statement was seen as an attempt by St-Pierre Plamondon to shore up nationalist support for his party, which will soon be battling it out with Fréchette’s Coalition Avenir Québec in many regions of the province.
It was also seen as a way to deflect some of the good press Fréchette bagged Monday in announcing a hydro agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador.
Fréchette and other adversaries of the PQ have criticized St-Pierre Plamondon repeatedly over the last few weeks, saying now would be the “worst time” to hold a referendum given the economic climate.
St-Pierre Plamondon addressed that head-on in his message, saying he wants to quash that debate before the election starts.
“I have thus chosen to completely defuse the argument that says now is the worst moment to reflect on our future because of Trump, by setting aside the possibility of a referendum before the end of his second mandate,” St-Pierre Plamondon said in his statement.
“We can thus run a campaign focused on our proposals to help Quebecers and relaunch our economy instead of redundant and sterile fear campaigns.”
He argued the independence debate is too important to allow it to get caught up in other issues.
“Why? Because an issue so crucial as the political future of Quebec requires the conditions permitting an enlightened and serene debate,” St-Pierre Plamondon said. “It must not be confiscated by the upheavals of American politics or by the stunts of an unpredictable president or by fear campaigns.
“This unpredictability of the American administration hampers our process as well as the quality of the debate on our future as a nation.”
St-Pierre Plamondon added that in any case, a PQ government would have enough on its plate cleaning up the mess the CAQ is leaving after eight years in power.
He made the statement a day before new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods were expected to kick in. Late Tuesday, Trump announced the tariff implementation would be paused for three days.
St-Pierre Plamondon has previously acknowledged that voters fear another referendum because of the geopolitical climate.
“I met people who are really scared,” he said after the PQ won a byelection in the riding of Chicoutimi in February. “After having listened to them, I understand them.
“I understand that in an unstable world, our fellow citizens ask themselves questions about our capacity to assume more responsibilities.”
St-Pierre Plamondon’s statement left him open to attack Tuesday from his rivals.
“If the PQ did the referendum at the start of its mandate, at least, we won’t know where we would be standing after a year or two,” Fréchette told reporters. “When they do it at the end, you get uncertainty during four years, and we already have too much economic uncertainty.
“This is not what Quebecers want.”
Milliard said it’s clear St-Pierre Plamondon is trying to widen his electoral base and woo more nationalists.
“It’s the lobster trap 2.0,” he said — a reference to former PQ leader Jacques Parizeau’s metaphor before the 1995 referendum about the irreversible nature of a Yes vote.
“The project to make Quebec a country cannot depend on the Trumps of this world,” Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal told reporters.
St-Pierre Plamondon’s message was a shift from his initial line to Quebecers in 2024 that a referendum will come sooner than people think.
But in a conference call with reporters later Tuesday, the PQ leader denied this delay of a referendum could be followed by others.
“It has been clear for six years that we are going to consult Quebecers within the mandate,” said St-Pierre Plamondon, who assumed the leadership in 2020. “We can’t be clearer than say it will be after January 2029.”
He said he had to make a formal statement because his main opponents were already milking economic fears to keep the PQ out of office.
“It’s a follow to what I have been saying for six years, except with more precision,” St-Pierre Plamondon said.
He said people like Milliard had hoped to campaign for 60 days by scaring voters with the prospect of the PQ’s referendum, adding that is not going to work.
The previous two Quebec independence referendums were held in 1980 and 1995. The federalist side won both. Support for independence has been hovering around 30 per cent for months.
The Gazette’s Katelyn Thomas contributed to this report.
Editor’s Picks
The Gazette’s On Quebec Politics newsletter by Andy Riga breaks down key election issues, from polling shifts to legislative manoeuvring to ideas circulating in francophone commentary that don’t make it into English-language coverage.
To sign up, visit this page and check the box labelled “On Quebec Politics” before providing your email address.