In the opening matchup of today’s two-game WNBA slate, the Toronto Tempo will face off with the Washington Mystics.
This is the fourth and final matchup between these two teams this season. Washington has picked up victories in all three games to this point. The Mystics opened up the season with a 68-65 win over the Tempo, and they took them down 86-85 and 79-62 in the previous two meetings. These teams last faced off on July 14th.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Washington Mystics enter as 12.5-point favorites and hold -750 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo hold +525 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 168.5.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Tempo vs. Mystics matchup.
Tempo at Mystics Preview
The Toronto Tempo enter with a 10-24 record on the season, which is the third-worst record in the WNBA. The outlook has only slipped as the season progressed. Toronto is looking to snap an 11-game losing streak, and they have dropped 15 of their past 16 games played. This also marks the second half of a back-to-back as the Tempo came up short 101-95 to the Indiana Fever last night. Overall, the Tempo have gone 18-16 against the spread, and the game total is 22-12 to the over/under.
Injuries have been a major factor in Toronto’s struggles, and this will remain the case tonight. Brittney Sykes dealt with a foot issue that has limited her to 16 games this season. Sykes is responsible for 19.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists when she has been on the floor, but will miss tonight due to injury management of her foot injury. Marina Mabrey is the only other player to exceed this, with averages of 20.8 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game, but is considered doubtful for tonight with a hamstring issue. Kiki Rice adds 11.2 points and 3.9 rebounds, Isabelle Harrison contributes 11.8 points and 5.8 rebounds, while trade deadline acquisition Aneesah Morrow is posting averages of 10.4 points and 7.2 rebounds across her first five games with Toronto. Nyara Sabally is posting averages of 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds, but remains sidelined and in a walking boot. Maria Conde missed last night’s game and will remain sidelined tonight, while Julie Allemand has been upgraded to probable with her right elbow injury.
As a team, the Tempo are scoring 87.9 points per game, which ranks eighth in the WNBA. Toronto also ranks eighth in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 94.3 points per game against the Tempo, ranking 15th in the WNBA. The Tempo also ranks last in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field goal percentage and 10th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Washington Mystics arrive with a 20-14 record on the season, which slots them in seventh place in the WNBA standings. Washington picked up a victory over the Los Angeles Sparks in the previous game, but dropped back-to-back games at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces before this. They have won eight of their last 10 overall. On the season, the Mystics have gone 21-13 against the spread, and the game total is 16-18 to the game total.
Sonia Citron headlines the production for the Mystics, averaging 17.3 points, 4.0 assists, and 3. rebounds per game. Washington leans on their interior production at a high rate with both Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen playing key roles. Austin is averaging 16.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, while Iriafen pitches in 14.8 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Michaela Onyenwere contributes 8.0 points per game of her own, while Cotie McMahon and Georgia Amoore also play key roles.
The Mystics are averaging 81.6 points per game, which ranks 14th in the WNBA in scoring. They also rank 13th in offensive rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, Washington has had more success, holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game at 82.4 per contest. The Mystics also rank second in defensive rating, first in opponent field goal percentage, and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.
Tempo at Mystics Pick, Best Bet
The Mystics are a perfect 3-0 straight up against the Tempo this season, but 2-1 to the spread. Washington produced a narrow 68-65 win in the opening matchup of the season, in which the Mystics led for 83% of the matchup but were never able to extend the lead beyond nine points. Toronto was limited to 27% shooting from the field, 20% from beyond the three-point arc, and was out-rebounded 44-37. The Tempo took a 65-64 lead with just 32.1 second remaining, before the Mystics were able to secure the win on the back of four consecutive Shakira Austin-made free throws.
It was another narrow matchup in the second meeting between these two teams. Washington ultimately secured an 86-85 win. The Mystics extended their lead to as many as 18 in the matchup, and held control for 63% of the matchup despite shooting just 2-for-18 from beyond the three-point arc. Washington dominated the rebounding battle 39-21. There was a late surge by the Tempo, who outscored the Mystics 33-21 in the in the fourth quarter, and took an 85-84 lead with 11.1 seconds remaining. But a 15-foot jump shot from Sonia Citron secured the win for the Mystics.
Washington was able to break things open in the third meeting between these two sides in a 79-62 win. Both sides could extend leads by double digits in this matchup, and the Mystics only led for 51% of the game. But Washington dominated on the interior, out rebounding Toronto 47-26 and outscoring them 52-24 inside the paint. The Mystics outscored the Tempo 27-17 in the fourth quarter to push the game out of reach.
These are two contrasting styles of basketball. Washington has a defensive-minded identity and plays through the interior at a high rate. Toronto has a firm case for the worst defensive team in the WNBA and must outscore teams to produce results. Fatigue will be a factor in this matchup as it is the second night of a back-to-back for the Tempo, which is the last thing this injury-riddled roster needs.
While the Tempo have done a respectable job covering the spread in losses, this is a matchup where I expect things to fully fall apart. Washington has a physically commanding roster that has had success dominating on the interior in this matchup. Expect there to be no answer for Austin and Iriafen on the interior against a Tempo team that ranks 13th in rebounds per game and 12th in opponents’ rebounds allowed. Toronto is not gifted enough offensively to overcome this concern, especially without their top two scoring threats, and will have some tired legs after last night’s up-tempo matchup against the Indiana Fever. Expect the losing streak to extend to 12 for this Tempo team and for this to be the biggest blowout of these matchups between these two teams as the Mystics complete the series sweep by more than the 12.5-point spread.