Quebec’s English-speaking and allophone vote is coalescing around two parties, and the Parti Québécois, despite leading provincewide, is not one of them.
The Quebec Liberal Party, led by Charles Milliard, commands the majority of support among decided voters in those communities, at 55 per cent, according to a new Léger poll commissioned by The Gazette and National Post.
The nearest rival is Éric Duhaime’s Conservative Party of Quebec, sitting at 20 per cent.
Meanwhile, the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, led by Premier Christine Fréchette, draws nine per cent.
The PQ sits at seven per cent, while Québec solidaire, which is also sovereignist, draws six per cent. Together, the two sovereignist parties have the support of 13 per cent of decided anglophone and allophone voters.
The poll comes as PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon prepares to campaign on holding a third sovereignty referendum. English-speaking Quebecers have historically been strongly federalist.
Still, St-Pierre Plamondon has sought to court their vote, attempting to rally English speakers at public events and in an open letter published two weeks ago by National Post. In the letter, he argued that English and French speakers share common ground and promised that the rights of anglophones would be protected in an independent Quebec.
But the Liberal lead persists across every demographic group measured in the Léger poll on the anglophone and allophone vote.
The party draws 59 per cent among English speakers and 52 per cent among allophones. Its support stands at 57 per cent in Greater Montreal and 48 per cent elsewhere in Quebec among those groups, rising to 69 per cent among voters 55 and older.
The PQ performs somewhat better among allophones (11 per cent) than among anglophones, only three per cent of whom support the party, but remains far behind the Liberals in both groups.
Responding to St-Pierre Plamondon’s outreach to anglophones, Milliard said one letter would not overcome decades of mistrust.
“The English-speaking community knows very well what the PQ thinks of the community,” Milliard said. “I think one open letter won’t change anything. It’s been 50 years of trying to divide Quebecers.”
St-Pierre Plamondon has since promised not to hold a referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office, citing the uncertain political climate and continuing trade conflicts. He said a PQ government would still hold one during its first mandate, but not before Jan. 20, 2029, when Trump’s presidency is scheduled to end.
The Léger survey was conducted from Aug. 12 to 16, before that announcement, so the results do not show whether the delay will change voters’ views.
The poll also suggests cost of living and health care are among anglophone and allophone voters’ leading concerns.
Respondents were more likely to favour easing Quebec’s language-protection measures than strengthening them. They were also more likely to say Bill 21 — the secularism law that bars certain public-sector workers, including teachers, from wearing religious symbols at work — goes too far than not far enough.
At the same time, a majority agreed French can be protected while Quebec’s English-speaking and allophone communities are respected.
Trust in the provincial government also emerged as a concern. A majority said it does not take the concerns of English-speaking Quebecers into account.
Fréchette is expected to make the official election call this week, with the vote taking place Oct. 5.
The Gazette and National Post asked Léger to survey Quebec voters who identified as anglophones or allophones. From Aug. 12 to 16, 601 eligible voters who had signed up for Léger’s online surveys took part. The results were adjusted to better match the population in age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and whether respondents had children. A random poll of this size would be accurate within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
What do you think about this upcoming election? Write to me: hnorth@postmedia.com
Editor’s Picks
On Quebec Politics
The Gazette’s On Quebec Politics newsletter by Andy Riga breaks down key election issues, from polling shifts to legislative manoeuvring to ideas circulating in francophone commentary that don’t make it into English-language coverage.
To sign up, visit this page and check the box labelled “On Quebec Politics” before providing your email address.
I’ve been writing for the Montreal Gazette since 2023. My favourite stories are ones that make you think and I’m always looking for new ways to tell them. At McGill, I studied economics and computer science. Now I live in the city’s Plateau, where I wear Doc Martens to try and blend in among the hipsters. Got a story? Email me.
hnorth@postmedia.com