The question put before Albertans this fall — whether to remain in Canada or pursue a binding independence vote at a later date to separate — is undoubtedly creating little uncertainty.
It’s an unsettled climate that could be weighing on decisions of homeowners in Calgary’s resale real estate market, though it’s unlikely to have had much impact on buyers and sellers over the typically slower summer months.
The true impact of the referendum on Calgary’s real estate market, however, would only come after the results are known following the vote on Oct. 19, says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board.
“Should it come out that the vote is not to pursue separation further, the whole discussion ends.”
Yet if a majority chooses to pursue separation, leading to another, but this time binding, referendum for independence, “that might change people’s opinions” on housing decisions.
Then, the impact on the housing market could be negative, as demand for homes is often tied to economic growth, Lurie adds. One recent report from the Calgary Chamber of Commerce suggests that a majority vote to separate would likely weigh negatively on the economy.
It found that eight in 10 surveyed members state that even the discussion of separation is negatively affecting the economy. It also found that 48 per cent of those members would consider leaving Alberta if the decision is to separate.
The study also assessed the potential economic impact, noting that one in three jobs in Alberta is tied to out-of-province trade, and the economy could see a six per cent reduction in per capita gross domestic product if Albertans vote for separation.
The chamber study also estimated that the province has already seen a reduction of as much as $15 billion in new investment due to uncertainty from the referendum.
Although study did not refer to the potential impact on the housing market, Calgary realtor Doug Cabral does not see it as a factor right now for buyers and sellers in the city.
“The referendum question rarely comes up with buyers considering a move to Alberta,” says Cabral with Royal LePage Benchmark.
“Ultimately, people are still making decisions based on employment, affordability, lifestyle and opportunity.”
He cites trying to predict the impact one way or another as “looking into a crystal ball.”
While a separation vote would cause uncertainty, “there are too many moving parts” to know the impact on employment, investment and migration, which all affect “housing supply and demand.”
What’s more, the city’s resale real estate market is already experiencing decline demand amid rising inventory, only driven by other factors. In mid-August, resales fell more than 24 per cent year over year, CREB statistics show.
At the same time, the average price has dropped more than six per cent to $647,155.
Lurie notes that the current decreases are not connected with the coming referendum.
“The shifts we’re seeing now don’t have much to do with that.”
She notes a decline in international migration over the past year and a half — which has weighed on most resale markets in Canada — is a bigger driver of softer conditions in the market.
“We’re seeing sales right now return to something more normal for demand,” she says, noting the province had seen record net migration levels from 2022 to 2024.
Net interprovincial migration continues — though not at record levels of recent years — and the real estate market in Calgary is adjusting accordingly.
“Activity is slightly below long-term trends, which is to be expected.”
Lurie adds the pending vote will likely have little impact on the housing market, given the expectation is Albertans will vote to remain in Canada. “When you look at polling, it doesn’t look like separation will happen,” she says.
“But if it (separation) doesn’t go away, then there could be people seeing it as a risk, and that can increase uncertainty for the housing market.”