As NDP MPs meet in Toronto for their fall caucus retreat, the party is still in rough shape politically and financially.

Federal New Democrats are digging themselves out of their election debt. Their leader still doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons. And their tiny caucus enters the fall Parliamentary sitting even smaller, after one MP joined the Liberals and another left. 

But that’s the one-sided view of the party held by those in the Ottawa political bubble, as NDP Leader Avi Lewis often likes to say. He and others say the New Democrat movement is ripe for a revival — and they think the city of Toronto offers a path forward.

‘We are back,’ Lewis says

In a video posted on social media the day after last week’s byelections — in which the party won no seats — Lewis admitted the New Democrats were “never expected to win.”

Nevertheless, Lewis said the results in Toronto signal the party is showing signs of coming back to life. In that byelection, the NDP saw their vote share triple compared to the 2025 general election in the Toronto riding of Beaches—East York. 

“The big headline for me is we are back,” Lewis said. “Our rebuild as a party is well underway. Lots of work still to do. But the early signs are really encouraging.” 

Lewis said New Democrats did better in this “sleepy summer, somewhat cynical byelection,” than they have in the past 11 years.

The 2025 general election was devastating for New Democrats with their worst-ever result. Jagmeet Singh resigned as leader on the spot. 

In March, New Democrats elected Lewis, who won on the first ballot with 56 per cent of the vote. Six months in, and Lewis has yet to secure a seat in the House of Commons, opting not to run in the recent byelections or the six upcoming.

Lewis could run for a Toronto seat

A senior NDP source tells CBC the party’s five-member caucus is going to Toronto because the party believes the path back to official party status is through Toronto seats, especially communities like Davenport and Parkdale. 

CBC is not identifying the source as they are not authorized to speak publicly about internal party matters. 

The city’s downtown core and surrounding areas, the source said, is ground zero for the main issues Lewis has been focusing on — the cost of groceries, housing, opposing another West Coast pipeline and tackling the climate crisis.

The NDP hasn’t won a seat in Toronto since 2011. But the party has potential, according to Éric Grenier, polling analyst and publisher of The Writ.

“I do think that the kind of messaging that Avi Lewis has been promoting, his general kind of approach and demeanour and policies are more likely to appeal in a place like Toronto, in urban downtown area kind of ridings.”

Lewis told the independent news website The Breach he was tempted to run in the Beaches—East York byelection.

And CBC’s source did leave open the potential that Lewis could eventually run in Canada’s largest city.

“We’re keeping our options open,” the source said. “There are opportunities to win seats … there is real potential to build upon.”

It would have been a gamble, but had Lewis run in Beaches—East York he could have won, said Jordan Leichnitz, a former NDP strategist and frequent panellist on CBC’s Power and Politics. 

Leichnitz said the votes the NDP were able to pick up likely came from progressive voters who are uncomfortable with Carney changing environmental regulations, building a pipeline and attempting to change the Canada Labour Code, potentially making it harder for some to strike.

“The ground organizing muscle that they were able to demonstrate in Beaches—East York is significant,” said Leichnitz, who’s also the Canada director for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, an international German foundation that’s aligned with theSocial Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). 

“And the fact that they were able to sort of prove, on the ground, the thesis that there are some progressive voters who voted Liberal who are now willing to come home under Lewis’s leadership — that’s important.” 

Year-round organizing, not just elections

Under Lewis, the NDP is developing a model of permanent organizing where the party is training and connecting with volunteers throughout the year and not just during election time, according to Matthew Green, the party’s outgoing national director. 

At a time when many people have fewer in person social connections, he said, New Democrats hope NDP riding groups become community hubs where people form lasting relationships instead of just the transactional politics of door knocking and phone calls at election time.   

“What we’re proposing around building communities is the idea that there is space for joy and fun and socializing and community and food and music and dance and things that typically wouldn’t be associated in the modern era with politics, but we’re a core part of our CCF [Co-operative Commonwealth Federation; the NDP’s political predecessor].”

Other than Beaches—East York, the NDP’s byelection results were dismal for the NDP, according to Grenier.

Their vote share shrunk in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and in North Vancouver—Capilano they earned three per cent of the vote and fell to third place, behind the Green Party of Canada. 

“The NDP is still not in great shape. They’re in better shape than they were in 2025, but that was the worst shape the party’s ever been. So it’s a low bar,” Grenier said.