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Public safety is top of mind for respondents in a tightening Toronto mayoral race, a new poll released Friday by Mainstreet Research suggests.
More than eight in ten of those surveyed said crime and public safety are somewhat, very or extremely important in deciding who they vote for in October’s mayoral election.
The importance of public safety perception can’t be overstated, the firm’s president and chief executive officer Quito Maggi said.
“While the relative strength of the candidates on this issue is important, the ability to communicate it effectively to voters is also critical in impacting how Toronto residents will decide to vote,” Maggi said.
Chow leading, Bradford closely following
The Mainstreet Research poll suggests the race has tightened following the first debate, held earlier this week.
“This race remains too close to call as issues and perceptions impact voters,” Maggi said.
Current mayor Olivia Chow continues to lead, the poll found, with 38.1 per cent of respondents saying they would re-elect her if the vote were held today. Beaches East-York Coun. Brad Bradford sits in second place with 31.4 per cent support.
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Another eight per cent of respondents said they would vote for Chris Alexander, a former Conservative MP and federal cabinet minister, if the election were held today.
The polling figures come from a sample of 1,000 Torontonians aged 18 or older polled on landlines and cellphones between Sept. 14 and 17, with a margin error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Residents were surveyed using interactive voice recording and the resulting data was weighted by age, gender, education and household income using the city’s 2021 Census.
Concerns around assault, disorder, fraud, break-ins
Approximately 70 per cent of those surveyed said they were very or somewhat concerned about crime and public safety. Another 25 per cent of respondents said they were not very concerned or not concerned at all, while 5.1 per cent said they were unsure.
Assault, robbery, gun and gang violence, fraud, scams, disorder on public transit, break-ins, home invasions and vehicle theft were among the crimes respondents said they were most concerned about.
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Those surveyed said they were most worried about crime in their neighbourhoods, on transit, in the downtown core and on roads.
A total of 16.1 per cent of respondents said their concerns caused them to frequently avoid certain areas, while 35.8 per cent said they occasionally steered clear of certain areas.
When asked whether or not they thought crime had increased in Toronto over the past two years, more than 60 per cent said they believed it had a lot or somewhat. Another 23.7 per cent of respondents said they feel crime has remained the same, while only around nine per cent said they thought crime decreased somewhat or significantly.
Though crime appears to be top of mind for many Torontonians heading into the election, other data shows public perception and crime statistics may be at odds with one another.
Toronto has seen 57 shootings so far this year: police
In a post to social media platform X Thursday, the Toronto Police Service said the city has seen 57 shootings so far this year — the second lowest number at this point in the year in two decades.
A survey by national public opinion research firm Liaison Strategies at the beginning of September suggested that Toronto has the largest gap between its official crime statistics and people’s perception of safety. The survey, which included 15 Canadian cities, found that Toronto had an 11 point difference between the official crime-severity rank and how safe respondents think the city is.
A spokesperson for Chow’s campaign said the mayor has made “historic investments” in improving public safety since she was elected in 2023.
“The choice is clear: we can either go backwards or keep moving forward,” Zeus Eden said in an emailed statement Friday. “The only poll that matters is on election day.”
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But a spokesperson for Bradford’s campaign says the results match what their campaign has been hearing at doorsteps across Toronto.
“Voters are realizing they don’t have to settle for the status quo, and that real change is an option on the ballot,” Laryssa Waler said in an emailed statement. “Toronto is stuck, Torontonians know it, and they’re taking a hard look at the one candidate offering real change with a real plan to deliver it.”
Speaking to reporters at a news conference Friday, Alexander said he’s not exactly where he needs to be in terms of support, but his message is just starting to make its rounds.
“Our policies are more detailed, more progressive, more constructive, more credible than those of the other candidates,” he said. “We’re just starting to get traction with this campaign.”
“I’m not concerned about this poll,” he added. “I’m very happy about the way this campaign is going.”
There are 53 candidates in the race to be Toronto’s next mayor. A full list of mayoral candidates can be found on the city’s website.