Turmoil in the Middle East is reviving concerns over fertilizer dependence in key grain export markets — and exposing how vulnerable major producers, including Canada, remain to disruption far from their own borders.
WHY IT MATTERS: Fertilizer is the most costly crop input on many farms, and global supply shocks tend to land in farmers’ input bills before they show up anywhere else.
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Canada’s import picture
Canada imported an average of 4.1 million tonnes of fertilizer per year between 2018 and 2023, according to a 2024 study by Fertilizer Canada. That total includes:
1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate (MAP)
518,232 tonnes of ammonium
92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP)
Canada also imports NPK blends, ammonium nitrate and calcium ammonium nitrate.
Phosphate comes from the United States. Nitrogen products come from both the U.S. and the Middle East.
“Canada produces nitrogen and potash but does not produce any phosphate and relies on imports,” Fertilizer Canada spokesperson Kayla Fitzpatrick said in an email. Nitrogen and potash are produced in Western Canada, she noted, but logistics shape where imports land.
“Due to supply chain challenges of getting bulk shipments of fertilizer across the country, it is easier to import fertilizer into Eastern Canada,” she said.
Anhydrous ammonia is applied in a mid-row band on a Manitoba field. Nitrogen and potash are produced in Western Canada, but Canada imports all of its phosphate fertilizer. Photo: Manitoba Agriculture
The Strait of Hormuz problem
Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing major supply disruptions in the U.S. and Brazil — the world’s two largest fertilizer importers — according to an analysis by Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The strait carries up to 30 per cent of global fertilizer shipments. Gulf countries are the largest regional exporter of urea and ammonia, and the second-largest regional exporter of DAP and MAP.
The U.S. imported 13 per cent of its nitrogen fertilizer, 16 per cent of its phosphate and 95 per cent of its potash in 2025.
“The United States has a strong domestic fertilizer industry, supplying nearly 60 per cent of its demand for the primary micronutrients,” wrote Purdue researchers Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier. “Even so, it remains exposed to major supply disruptions and sharp increases in fertilizer prices.”
Brazil’s exposure is worse
Brazil imports 95 per cent of its nitrogen fertilizer, 72 per cent of its phosphate and 96 per cent of its potash.
“Brazil does not have a strong domestic fertilizer industry, despite the scale of its agricultural production,” the Perdue report stated.
Both Brazil and the U.S. announced plans in 2022 to reduce dependence on imported fertilizers after the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supplies. Domestic NPK production has changed little since.
Brazil’s imports, meanwhile, have climbed — reaching a record 43.3 million tonnes in 2025, up from 39.3 million tonnes in 2021.
“Brazil remains in a riskier position because import dependence is high across all three primary macronutrients, and domestic production has not kept pace with rising record demand,” the report stated.
The timing matters. Brazil’s soybean fertilizer purchasing window for the 2026-27 crop season is happening now. In the U.S. Midwest, much of the fertilizer for this crop year had been purchased or applied last fall, before the conflict began.
“Despite these different impacts, both Brazil and the United States should step up efforts to expand domestic fertilizer production and reduce their exposure to external shocks,” the Purdue analysis concluded.
Australia faces a harder squeeze
Australia is also heavily dependent on imported fertilizer, according to a recent special report by Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Between 2019 and 2023, Australia imported an average of 87 per cent of its nitrogen fertilizer, 68 per cent of its phosphate and 100 per cent of its potash. The Middle East supplied 64 per cent of Australia’s urea and 33 per cent of its DAP and MAP in 2025.
Many Australian farmers had enough fertilizer for the winter crop planting now underway.
“However, wheat crops need urea post-planting through until flowering in September to maximize yield potential,” Voznesenski said. “Following flowering, further urea will be needed to increase the protein content of the wheat.” Canola will also need urea before flowering around September.
Voznesenski is forecasting significant production hits for Australia’s 2026-27 crop compared to 2025-26:
Wheat: down 9 to 25 per cent
Barley: down 17 to 32 per cent
Canola: down 10 to 31 per cent
Those projections assume a 15 to 45 per cent reduction in urea application this year.
“If the fertilizer export disruption lasts past mid-year and well into the Southern Hemisphere’s grain growing season, global markets should begin pricing in reduced production potential via higher prices,” Voznesenski said.
