Although the Calgary Flames had roughly a 10 per cent shot at picking first overall in the 2026 NHL entry draft, it should surprise no one that they ended up dropping down to sixth instead.

The Flames have famously never picked inside the top three or won a single draft lottery in their history. But perhaps even more bizarre is their penchant for landing the number six overall pick. Of the 11 times the Flames have picked inside the top 10 at the draft (meaning, ninth overall or higher), they have been assigned the sixth slot seven times, including this year.

Moving past the Flames’ ongoing lack of lottery luck, they still have a good chance of landing a solid player at their current position in the order.

If we take a look at their own track record at six overall and then review the list of players picked there over the last 20 years, it provides a good base rate of success for that point in the draft.

Flames’ sixth overall selections

The first time Calgary picked in the sixth spot was the 1992 supplemental draft. They took Jamie O’Brien from the ECAC, a player who never played a single game in the NHL.

The Flames also picked sixth in the regular entry draft that year, taking Cory Stillman from the OHL. Stillman lasted six seasons with the Flames, scoring 20-plus goals three times before moving on to St. Louis. Stillman was never a star, but he had a solid NHL career that spanned more than 1,000 games and included a Stanley Cup win in Carolina.

Next, the Flames took Daniel Tkaczuk in 1997 and Rico Fata in 1998. Neither made a dent with the franchise. Tkaczuk’s development was impacted by concussions, and he only appeared in 19 NHL games. Fata was a blazing fast skater, but couldn’t put it all together at the highest level. He appeared in just 22 games for the Flames, scoring a single assist.

Calgary’s next two picks at six were more successful: Sean Monahan in 2013 and Matthew Tkachuk in 2016. Monahan was a star for years before being slowed by compounding injuries, while Tkachuk has put together a superstar-level NHL career with two Stanley Cups in Florida and 670 points in 673 career games.

All together, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Two outright busts in O’Brien and Tkaczuk, a nominal NHLer in Fata, a capable top-six contributor in Stillman, a star in Monahan, and a superstar in Tkachuk.

That’s an NHLer hit rate of about 50%.

Historical sixth overall selections

If we break down the sixth overall picks in the league between 2004 and 2025, we see the hit rate tends to be somewhat comparable, depending on where you draw the line:

Busts: Nikita Filatov
Contributors: Gilbert Brule, Jake Virtanen, Brett Connolly, Cody Glass, Filip Zadina, Pavel Zacha, Sam Gagner
Stars: Monahan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mika Zibanejad, Hampus Lindholm, Moritz Seider
Superstars: Tkachuk
Emerging: Jamie Drysdale, Simon Edvinsson, David Jiricek, Dmitriy Simashev, Tij Iginla

Six of the established NHLers arguably clear the star or superstar threshold (40 per cent), while only Filatov busted outright. Recent draftees like Drysdale and company are still developing, although 2025 sixth-overall pick Porter Martone is already looking like a star for Philadelphia.

While there is some value to getting decent, middle-rotation contributors at the draft, no doubt Flames fans and management would rather land a star-level impact player at six. They’ve managed to do that twice in six tries as a franchise (33 per cent), while recent history suggests a 40 per cent shot at a star at this point in the draft.

Of course, these are just average results spread across different teams, scouts, GM’s, and player cohorts. The strength of this particular draft class and Calgary’s ability to scout and develop the player in question will be the biggest factors when it comes to the success (or failure) of this year’s selection.

With that in mind, there is some reason for optimism. Calgary’s best two picks at sixth were their last two choices, and the team has done well snagging high-value players relative to draft position under general manager Craig Conroy.

In addition, this draft class is reportedly thick with high-potential players inside of the top 10, but with draft boards and opinions varying wildly from scout to scout and from team to team. This was a similar situation in 2016 when Tkachuk fell to Calgary at six: After Auston Matthews at first overall, there wasn’t a clear consensus on player rankings. This led the Vancouver Canucks to reach for defenceman Olli Juolevi at fifth, leaving the Flames to (happily) pick Tkachuk next.

That stands up as perhaps the best sixth overall choice in recent memory. And it would be a huge boon to the current rebuild if Calgary’s scouting staff could do that again in June.