Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney drew global attention at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he argued that middle powers must coordinate more closely in order to counter coercive diplomacy by major powers. In Japan, however, Canada’s recent diplomatic moves — including its first prime ministerial visit to China in more than eight years — have generated mixed reactions.
While Carney emphasized the importance of middle powers in his Davos speech, he also cited the establishment of a “new strategic relationship” with China as a diplomatic achievement, prompting criticism that Canada is pursuing rapprochement with China or distancing itself from the United States. In reality, Canada’s recalibration of relations with China can be understood less as a strategic shift toward Beijing than as a cautious form of geoeconomic risk hedging, undertaken in response to the country’s structural dependence on the U.S. and the volatility of the second Trump administration.
Deeply intertwined with the United States both geographically and institutionally, Canada’s economy is also highly dependent on the United States, with more than 70% of exports and roughly 60% of imports tied to its southern neighbor. However, following the return of the Trump administration in 2025, Canada became one of the primary targets of U.S. tariff measures and faced repeated rounds of additional levies. U.S. President Donald Trump also made a series of remarks that appeared to dismiss Canadian sovereignty, including suggestions that Canada should become “the 51st state.”