It’s been just over a year since the 2025 federal election, which in many ways proved to be a catalyst for the separatist movement and debate now consuming Alberta politics.

Yet, credible polling would indicate that public opinion hasn’t changed much over the past 12 months. Support for separation is more or less where it was in the aftermath of the Liberal victory.

And while the awful stench of the voters list data breach could prove to be an albatross for the separatist cause, it’s hard to imagine what could be a game-changer in the other direction. The best hope for a separatist jolt at this point would be a major fumble by Ottawa.

So far, Prime Minister Mark Carney has demonstrated that he understands this dynamic — certainly more so than his predecessor did. But while it would be unfair to characterize inaction as a fumble or some kind of slap in the face to Alberta, there’s an urgency now to move beyond mere rhetoric.

Since taking office, Carney has talked a good game about the importance of building major projects and the need to move more swiftly. A year later, though, it’s hard to find evidence of that in practice.

It’s similar with regard to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Alberta and Ottawa. There’s a reason separatists reacted so unfavourably when the agreement was first announced, as the project envisioned in the MOU would vindicate the sort of constructive federalism that Carney has talked about. Moving forward on a major pipeline project would definitely be a blow to the Alberta separatist movement.

But with missed deadlines and growing uncertainty around the MOU, skeptics have had an easier time making the argument that it was all just words on paper, and that Canada remains a jurisdiction where big projects and major investments are just too difficult.

This is not just about influencing political sentiment in Alberta, of course. Ultimately, this is about maximizing Canada’s economic advantages and diversifying our export markets. There’s a national vested interest in moving forward with major resource projects.

Finally, late last week, we got some positive signs that things are poised to move in the right direction.

Following her meeting with Carney on Friday, Premier Danielle Smith reported “significant progress” toward an agreement on a West Coast pipeline and carbon pricing. It’s expected that a pipeline project will be submitted to the Major Projects Office next month.

Related

One of the challenges has been reaching an agreement on the pace of increases in the industrial carbon price, despite a consensus on what that final number should be. This is where Ottawa needs to be flexible, and understand that advancing this agreement and building these projects needs to be the priority.

Also on Friday, the federal government released its plan for simplifying and accelerating federal reviews and the regulatory process for major projects. It’s regrettable that our regulatory landscape requires such a plan and it’s unfortunate that this plan didn’t come much sooner. Still, though, it’s welcome.

It’s no coincidence that the Liberals have found themselves with a comfortable lead in the polls as the prime minister has emphasized this approach. Carney is politically astute enough to understand that with such a large degree of trade uncertainty and economic headwinds, there’s tremendous support across the country for big and bold swings when it comes to major projects.

Therefore, there’s little political downside in following through on these commitments, and much more risk in building up expectations that fall flat. So it’s a little puzzling that we’ve been lacking on that follow-through up until this point.

For the sake of the Canadian economy, for the sake of investor confidence and for the sake of national unity: let’s get on with it.

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com