Alberta has been pushing what the economy has needed all along: market access, infrastructure and policy that turns natural advantage into productive output, writes Dmitriy Frolovskiy.Todd Korol/The Globe and Mail
Dmitriy Frolovskiy is a political analyst and consultant on policy and strategy.
Long overdue, the potential industrial carbon-pricing deal between Ottawa and Alberta, as reported by The Globe and Mail on Tuesday, paves the path for a new oil pipeline.
That does two important things at once. It soothes a strained federal-provincial relationship, and more importantly, it gives Canada an opportunity to treat its energy sector as what it should be: a competitive asset.
In a world more volatile and ruptured than before, demand for energy is rising, and the trend is expected to stay. Resources, and secure access to them, are also playing a larger role in the economic and geopolitical calculus.
Canada has the resources. But it still has to decide what it wants to do with them and how to better deliver them to global markets. It is about time the country started thinking about that question pragmatically, driven by its own economic interests.
It may be difficult to admit in Ottawa that Alberta has been forcing a conversation the country has avoided for an unforgivably long time. The provincial politics are messy; that is a well-known fact. But the substance of the debate – the need for a new pipeline – is foundational to the country’s wealth. Greater pipeline capacity delivers stronger exports and improved access to Asian markets.
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The Trans Mountain Expansion, Canada’s newest pipeline, is already running near full capacity at 850,000 barrels per day. Global energy demand is not waiting for Canada to become comfortable with itself. Time for that has long passed.
The new accord between Ottawa and Alberta, which would raise the industrial carbon price to $130 a tonne by 2040, matters. It finalizes the memorandum of understanding signed last year, which rolls back climate policies and sets the stage for a new pipeline to the British Columbia coast. It begins to align policy with the operating reality of Canada’s energy sector, which is equally felt across the provinces.
An industrial carbon price was central to Canada’s previous climate strategy, once projected to deliver significant emissions reductions under the Trudeau government. Still in the making, the new deal is less stringent than the previous trajectory of $170 a tonne by 2030, and that is a relief. The trade-off is greater investor confidence. Combined with Ottawa’s proposal to green-light projects ahead of full technical assessments, the deal suggests a more mature approach to using the country’s energy base as an international competitive advantage.
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The MOU also begins to repair federal-provincial relations, which had drifted into open hostility, with separatist sentiment brewing. That should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. Alberta benefits from being in Canada and always has. The reverse is also true, and both Ottawa and Alberta know it better than either is publicly willing to admit.
At the same time, the deeper point is harder for the federal government to absorb. Ottawa has spent years treating climate policy as a national identity-building project, and that came with an enormous economic cost. Future generations of Canadians may end up paying for this obsession whether they like it or not.
In contrast, Alberta has been pushing what the economy has needed all along: market access, infrastructure and policy that turns natural advantage into productive output. Ultimately, this is what has historically delivered national wealth and prosperity.
Alberta has also stayed within its responsibilities to the federal government, including on Indigenous participation. The province has described its proposal as a “world-class Indigenous co-owned pipeline to the West Coast of British Columbia.” That framing addresses one of the recurring lines of reasoning Ottawa has used to slow energy projects.
The U.S. trade war has made the cost of past policy choices visible to almost everyone willing to see. Economists estimate the 2025-26 tariff cycle has already cut 1.5 to 2 per cent from Canadian GDP. By all means, this is substantial. Whether it could have been lower if Canada acted earlier is a whole other question.
Nonetheless, debt has been climbing, productivity lagging and living standards slipping. According to the C.D. Howe Institute, in 2025, Canadian workers likely received only 70 cents of new capital for every dollar received by their Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development counterparts, and 55 cents for every dollar received by U.S. workers.
What needed to happen has been known for years. Why it took this long, at this cost, will be a question for future generations and historians to answer.
The deal between Ottawa and the province, if it takes place, is bigger than a mere Alberta grievance. Fiscal strength, investment climate and competitiveness all run through it, and are at stake.