Cooper Albers previews Sunday’s MLB series finale between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
Sunday’s action-packed MLB slate kicks off north of the border, where the Toronto Blue Jays look to complete the sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays (25–27, 3rd AL East) took the first two games and have now won seven of their last 10 contests. Inversely, the Pirates (26–26, 5th NL Central) have dropped seven of their last 10 and look to avoid their second sweep over the previous three series.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (4–2, 3.86 ERA) taking on Blue Jays righty Dylan Cease (3–2, 2.98 ERA).
First pitch is at 12:15 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -156 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pirates are +129 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 7.5 runs.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates
The loss of star slugger Ryan O’Hearn — currently on the 10-day injured list with a quad strain — has dealt a brutal blow to the Pirates’ lineup. His absence has largely coincided with Pittsburgh’s recent 3–7 stretch, during which the club has fallen from a top-five run-scoring offense to a pedestrian 15th in MLB.
The Bucs’ pitching staff has also taken its lumps over the last 10 games. In that span, the starting unit ranks 23rd in ERA (5.11) and 15th in xERA (4.23), while the bullpen sits 22nd (4.38) and 30th (5.75), respectively. After another rough outing from ace Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh will deploy veteran right-hander Mitch Keller to fend off the brooms in Sunday’s series finale.
Keller, 30, enters with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP on the season, but his 4.26 xERA and disappointing strikeout numbers suggest plenty of room for growth. Worse, the former All-Star has surrendered at least four earned runs in back-to-back starts, including a six-run thumping from the lowly Rockies.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are quietly inching back into the AL East race. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games, including a four-game split with the division rival Yankees in the Bronx. While the offense has largely remained quiet — save for Daulton Varsho’s walk-off grand slam against the Rays — it still managed four runs over five frames against Paul Skenes on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Toronto’s pitching lab has been producing straight gas. The Blue Jays own a collective 2.45 ERA over their last 10 games, the fourth-lowest mark in MLB, and rank second in FIP (2.82) and lead the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (10.6).
The Jays will look to keep the momentum rolling Sunday afternoon, handing the ball to Dylan Cease. The star right-hander, 30, has dazzled in his first season in Toronto, posting a 2.98 ERA (2.98 xERA) with a 1.22 WHIP and 84 across 10 starts (57.1 IP). Armed with one of sport’s filthiest sliders, Cease ranks in the league’s top three percent in strikeout rate (35.1%), whiff rate (36.5%), and breaking run value (7). He’ll be eager to bounce back after giving up five earned runs over five frames against the Yankees.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Pick, Best Bet
If the Pirates can’t beat the Blue Jays with Paul Skenes on the bump, don’t expect them to get it done at all. Toronto’s pitching staff has been all aces over the past 10 games, and Dylan Cease should turn in another strong performance against Pittsburgh’s injury-hampered lineup. Expect the Jays to record their fifth-straight win and complete the sweep in Sunday’s series finale.