May 24, 2026
This latest wave of Abacus Data’s federal political tracking finds the opinion environment around Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal government continuing to strengthen. Most of this survey was conducted following the announcement on a pipeline between the Prime Minister and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
Government approval has reached a new high, Carney’s personal ratings are at their strongest levels yet, and the Liberals now hold a 12-point lead over the Conservatives nationally. At the same time, Canadians are more optimistic about the direction of the country than at any point in more than eight years.
What stands out most in the data is not simply that conditions are improving for the Liberals, but why they are improving. Canadians continue to express deep anxiety about the global environment, Donald Trump, and the state of the world economy. But increasingly, they are not directing that frustration at Ottawa. Instead, many appear to see Carney and the Liberals as a stabilizing force in the face of external volatility.
That shift is especially visible on issues like the cost of living where the Liberals have dramatically narrowed — and in some cases erased — what was once major Conservative advantage.
Direction of the Country: Optimism Reaches Highest Point in Over Eight Years
Today, 47% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction while 39% say it is on the wrong track. That is the highest “right direction” score Abacus Data has recorded since 2017.
Views of the broader world remain overwhelmingly pessimistic. Only 13% believe the world is headed in the right direction while 76% say it is on the wrong track. Views of the United States are similarly bleak, with 14% saying the U.S. is headed in the right direction and 80% saying it is on the wrong track.
The contrast between perceptions of Canada and perceptions of the world has widened steadily since Donald Trump returned to the White House and since Mark Carney became Prime Minister. Canadians appear increasingly anxious about external events while simultaneously feeling more confident about Canada’s trajectory relative to other countries.
Optimism about Canada is highest among older Canadians, Atlantic Canadians, British Columbians, and Liberal voters. A majority of those aged 60 and over (57%) believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 40% of those aged 30 to 44.
Among 2025 Liberal voters, 71% believe Canada is headed in the right direction. Only 24% of Conservative voters agree.
Direction of the Country — May 20, 2026
Cost of Living Still Dominates — But the Politics Around It Are Changing
The rising cost of living remains by far the most important issue facing the country.
Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) rank it among the top three issues facing Canada today. The economy follows at 38%, healthcare at 35%, Donald Trump and his administration at 34%, and housing affordability at 32%.
What is politically significant is how perceptions of issue management have shifted.
Among Canadians who say the cost of living is a top concern, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 13 points on vote intention (45% to 32%). Just months ago, affordability was one of the Conservatives’ strongest issue environments. When asked which party is best able to handle the cost of living (among those who rate it as a top national issue), 37% say the Liberals compared with 35% who name the Conservatives.
The Liberals also hold commanding advantages among those most concerned about Donald Trump and his administration (56% Liberal vs. 18% Conservative), healthcare (45% to 29%), housing affordability (46% to 29%), and job security (40% to 36%). When asked which party is best able to handle Donald Trump, the Liberals are ahead by almost 50 points, among those who rate it as a top issue. They also lead by 14 on healthcare, 10 on housing, and three on the economy.
The Conservatives continue to lead on immigration and crime and public safety, but these issue clusters are materially smaller than affordability and economic concerns.
Our read of this data is that Canadians increasingly see inflationary pressure and economic uncertainty as being driven externally, particularly by instability emanating from the United States and decisions made by Donald Trump, rather than by domestic policy failures from Ottawa. That dynamic has materially changed the political terrain.
Top Issues & Best Party — May 20, 2026
Government Approval Hits Highest Level Ever in Our Tracking
Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney has climbed again.
Today, 59% approve of the job the government is doing, including 19% who strongly approve and 39% who mostly approve. Just 27% disapprove. At 59%, this is the highest approval rating we have ever registered for the federal government with the next highest measure at 57% in August 2016 for the Trudeau government.
Compared with earlier this month, approval is up two points while disapproval has declined by one.
The longer trend is even more striking. Since Carney became Prime Minister, approval ratings have steadily improved despite global economic turbulence, trade uncertainty, and growing anxiety about international affairs.
Rather than punishing the government for that uncertainty, Canadians increasingly appear to see the government as managing through it competently.
Government Approval — May 6, 2026
Canadian Public Affairs Update · May 6, 2026
Government Approval — Mark Carney
n=2,478 Canadians · April 30–May 5, 2026 · MoE ±2%
Overall
Trend
Methodology
Government Approval — May 6, 2026 (Change from April 2026)
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?
Approve
57%
▲ +3 from April
Disapprove
28%
▼ -1 from April
Neither approve nor disapprove
15%
57% of Canadians approve of the job the Carney government is doing — up 3 points from April 2026. Only 28% disapprove, down 1 point.
Government Approval Trend — March 2025 to May 2026
WaveApproveDisapproveMar 12-2534%50%Mar 20-2539%25%Mar 25-2541%25%Apr 8-2549%24%May 21-2550%24%Jun 5-2553%23%Jun 19-2552%25%Jul 2-2552%25%Jul 15-2552%27%Aug 7-2550%27%Aug 20-2549%30%Sep 2-2548%30%Sep 17-2550%30%Oct 1-2546%31%Oct 15-2548%32%Oct 29-2547%34%Nov 6-2544%34%Nov 27-2548%32%Dec 10-2547%35%Jan 14-2647%34%Jan 27-2654%31%Feb 10-2652%29%Feb 24-2652%30%Mar 11-2656%28%Mar 25-2654%30%Apr 8-2654%30%Apr 22-2654%29%May 6-2657%28%
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · May 6, 2026 · n=2,478 · MoE ±2%
abacusdata.ca
Carney’s Personal Ratings Reach Their Strongest Point Yet
Mark Carney’s personal numbers have also improved further.
Today, 56% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister while 26% have a negative impression, giving him a net favourability score of +30, the strongest personal rating recorded for him in Abacus tracking to date.
Carney’s ratings are especially strong in Quebec (+49 net), Atlantic Canada (+27), Ontario (+26), and among younger (+35) and older Canadians aged 60+ (+47).
Pierre Poilievre’s numbers, by contrast, remain largely unchanged.
Thirty-eight percent of Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre while 44% have a negative impression, for a net score of -6.
Importantly, Poilievre’s numbers are not historically low for an opposition leader. In fact, compared with many recent opposition leaders, his standing remains relatively good. The challenge for him is that he is being measured against a Prime Minister who is currently exceptionally popular and benefiting from a highly favourable political environment.
At the moment, the contrast favours Carney heavily.
Party Leader Impressions — May 20, 2026
Liberals Open Up a 12-Point National Lead
If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 47% of the committed vote compared with 35% for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 8%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the Greens at 2%.
That gives the Liberals a 12-point national lead.
Among those certain to vote, the Liberals rise to 48% while the Conservatives remain at 35%.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada:
Ontario: Liberals 51%, Conservatives 36%
Quebec: Liberals 46%, Bloc 27%, Conservatives 21%
British Columbia: Liberals 51%, Conservatives 34%
Atlantic Canada: Liberals 56%, Conservatives 34%
The Conservatives continue to lead overwhelmingly in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
By age, the Liberals now hold a commanding 28-point lead among Canadians aged 60 and over (57% to 29%) while trailing among those aged 30 to 44.
The Liberal accessible voter pool also remains substantially larger than the Conservative pool. Nationally, 61% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal compared with 49% who would consider voting Conservative.
Federal Vote Intention — May 20, 2026
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Public opinion today is being shaped less by domestic exhaustion and more by external anxiety.
Canadians remain deeply worried about affordability, economic uncertainty, and the state of the world. But increasingly, they are attributing those pressures to forces outside Canada particularly Donald Trump, instability in the United States, and broader global volatility rather than blaming the federal government directly.
That distinction matters enormously politically.
Instead of being punished for difficult conditions, the Carney government appears to be benefiting from a comparative effect. Canadians look abroad, see instability and unpredictability, and then look at Canada and feel comparatively reassured. At the same time, the “build Canada strong” framing has also helped to lift spirits and optimism to a point we haven’t seen in a very long time.
It also helps explain the transformation we’re seeing on core economic issues.
The Conservatives spent years building political strength around affordability and cost of living concerns. Those issues fuelled dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government and created the conditions for Conservative growth. But the environment has shifted. Today, the Liberals are statistically tied or ahead on the economy and cost of living among the voters who care most about those issues.
That is a profound change in the structure of competition.
The government’s approval rating is now at a new high – the highest we have ever tracked. Carney’s personal numbers are at a new high. The Liberal lead is at a new high for this mandate. And the broader mood of the country continues to improve.
None of this means the Conservatives are collapsing. Pierre Poilievre’s personal ratings are not materially deteriorating. In another political context, they might even be considered reasonably competitive for an opposition leader. But politics is relative, and right now, he is competing against a Prime Minister who is exceptionally popular and who benefits from a public mood that increasingly rewards steadiness and competence.
For the Liberals, this is about as favourable an opinion environment as they could realistically hope for giving them an immense amount of political capital.
The key question now is whether this becomes a durable political realignment tied to global instability and perceptions of leadership, or whether it proves more temporary and contingent on events outside Canada’s borders.
For now, though, the trend lines continue to move in one direction: toward greater confidence in Carney, greater comfort with the Liberal government, and greater optimism about Canada relative to the rest of the world.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,920 Canadians from May 14 to 20, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.23 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
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