The (majority) governing Liberal caucus includes Marilyn Gladu; soon it will not include Steven Guilbeault. Who saw that coming last summer?
Not me, but the underlying dynamics were identified nearly two years ago. I readily acknowledge that it is off-putting to say I told you so, but if I don’t say it, who will?
First though, to a remarkable Wednesday in Ottawa. At the morning Liberal caucus, Guilbeault took his leave — the same caucus that includes Gladu, who lambasted Guilbeault for years in the most excoriating fashion. Indeed, in a recent interview Gladu allowed that when she met with Prime Minister Mark Carney ahead of crossing the floor, she explicitly mentioned Guilbeault as one who might object to her joining the red team. No need to worry, Marilyn, the prime minister might have said. Some problems solve themselves in due course.
On Wednesday evening, Guilbeault turned up at the Rideau Club for the farewell fête for Jonathan Wilkinson, the current Liberal MP recently named Canada’s ambassador to the EU. Justin Trudeau, introduced as Katy Perry’s boyfriend, was on hand to witness two of his former environment ministers — Wilkinson preceded Guilbeault — leaving Parliament.
What files might Wilkinson take up in Brussels?
Between the morning caucus and the Rideau Club soirée, Canada signed an LNG deal with Germany. It’s not huge on the numbers, but it is massively significant. Trudeau infamously told the Germans that he would not sell them Canadian natural gas when they asked for it after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Wilkinson’s ambassadorial role should not be confused with the “special envoy” Trudeau appointed to the EU — Stéphane Dion. Dion, who named his dog Kyoto after the UN climate concord, also served as ambassador to Germany. Wilkinson will be expected to do in Europe what Dion was expected to block, namely, increase Canadian fossil fuels sales.
“I went from zero to my own hero,” Perry sings in Hear Me Roar. Not the vibe at the Rideau Club this week, I would suppose, as it’s whimpering time now for the climate agenda of Trudeau-Wilkinson-Guilbeault. The self-anointed heroes of Liberal climate policy wave goodbye to each other, and the net-zero emissions agenda.
Who could have seen it coming?
Mark Carney for one — and those careful enough to pay attention to his actual words. Time for the off-putting I-told-you-so.
“Some may think that (Trudeau and Carney) have similar positions on climate,” I wrote here in August 2024. “Carney is the United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, and Trudeau began his premiership by leading a gargantuan delegation to the Paris climate talks in 2015. While they agree on the urgency of reducing carbon emissions to mitigate global warming, they are miles apart on their preferred policy. It is a difference of maximum importance. Carney favours climate prosperity. Trudeau climate penance.”
Carney argued in 2020 that net zero “is creating the greatest commercial opportunity of our age.”
“Carney wishes to see Canada lead what he believes will be a lucrative transition to a low-carbon economy,” I wrote then. “Trudeau thinks Canada should be punished for its high-carbon past. Carney, the optimistic investor, sees opportunities opening up. Trudeau, the harsh moralizer, shuts down new developments.”
Climate prosperity (Carney) and penance (Trudeau) happily coexisted for a time. Then came some ugly developments — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an American president who took Russia’s side, the same president’s on-again-off-again trade war with his allies. The prosperity folks thought that the time for penance had passed.
Carney is returning the Liberals to the climate policies of Jean Chrétien. Chrétien signed the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and ratified it in Parliament. But the penance was for show; prosperity ruled the day and Chrétien permitted oil and gas to develop without regard for the Kyoto emissions targets. And so today, as pipelines are envisioned and LNG agreements signed, the Liberals maintain the rhetoric of climate emissions — as even the Alberta government does — while looking to sell Canada’s energy, including oil and gas, to the world.
President Donald Trump is now attempting to revive the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada may well smile upon it. If that ever comes to pass, Guilbeault would prefer to criticize it from outside the governing caucus.
Conservative critics — understandably — have argued that Carney, Trudeau, Wilkinson and Guilbeault all have the same climate policy. It’s a plausible argument if constructed from coinciding policy preferences five years ago. But it ignores that the animating principles behind those policy preferences were different — and potentially in opposition. They are in opposition now, and so Carney first separated himself from the Trudeau policies, and now from the Trudeau ministers.
That he could do so serenely, and grow his caucus, could not have been foreseen in the summer of 2025, let alone 2024, when he was a private citizen. But the shifting agenda was evident then. Carney had already said it. Some people were listening.
National Post