Prime Minister Mark Carney needs a “team” approach that includes the opposition Conservatives to confront the Alberta separation referendum being held this October, which, if successful, could mark the beginning of the country’s break-up, say political players.

“It’s got to be a team approach,” said Duane Bratt, who teaches Canadian public policy and international relations at Mount Royal University, in Calgary, Alta.

“They should have the positive message, not [focus on] the dangers of leaving, but just [communicate] we’re better together.”

Alberta is the heartland of the Conservative Party base, with 33 of 37 MPs from the province being Conservatives. The Liberals have three MPs, and the NDP one.

Bratt said that the “remain” campaign should include all current and former high-profile Conservative politicians and caucus members.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, centre, surrounded by Conservative MPs at a press conference in the West Block. The federal government should use a ‘team’ approach that includes the opposition Conservatives to confront the Alberta separation referendum, says professor Duane Bratt. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

He said that until recently, both Carney (Nepean, Ont.) and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta.) had largely stayed out of the conversation around Alberta separation because it was unclear whether a referendum would take place, and, if so, when.

Now that the timing of the referendum and the wording of the question are known, both leaders have begun weighing in on the issue, joined by Conservative MPs and Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi which is the right thing to do, he said.

So far, Bratt pointed out, there have been two separation referendums in Canada, and both were in Quebec. Both times, the incumbent Liberal prime ministers were Quebecers. During the 1980 referendum, Pierre Elliott Trudeau was the prime minister, while Jean Chrétien led the country during the 1995 referendum.

Current Prime Minister Carney has a connection to Alberta, having spent his childhood in Edmonton, but he left in the mid-1980s for education and other professional pursuits. Carney now represents an Ottawa-area riding.    

‘Clarity Act does not apply on the question in Alberta,’ said PM Carney

Separatist sentiment in Alberta resurfaced strongly after the 2025 general election. It’s driven largely by the pro-separation group, the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP). In December 2024, Elections Alberta approved the APP’s referendum question, which asks if the province should cease to be part of Canada and become an independent state. An official petition drive was launched on Jan. 2, 2026, and organizers had until May 2 to collect 177,732 signatures—representing 10 per cent of eligible voters—to mandate a referendum under the Citizen Initiative Act. By the May 2 deadline, the petition garnered 302,000 signatures, which was delivered to Elections Alberta on May 4.

But some First Nations successfully launched a court challenge with the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta, on the grounds that the government failed in its constitutional duty to consult First Nations. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s government has vowed to appeal this decision.  

Two weeks ago, Smith announced that an already-scheduled October referendum on issues including immigration and constitutional reforms will also include a question about whether Albertans want a binding referendum on the province leaving Canada. This will be one of the 10 questions that will be asked.

The Alberta government formalized the wording of its question in an order in council, Global News reported on May 28.

Voters can pick one of two options: “Alberta should remain a province of Canada,” or “The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”

Carney said last week that the Clarity Act would not apply to the October vote because it’s not a binding referendum.

“I just heard from the council of experts on the applicability of the Clarity Act and it does not apply on the question in Alberta,” Carney told the House of Commons.

Passed in the aftermath of the 1995 Quebec referendum, the Clarity Act sets the conditions under which the federal government would recognize a provincial referendum on separation from Canada. This law requires that, before Ottawa is obligated to take any action on separation, a provincial government would have to ask a clear question and achieve a clear result of the referendum.

No well-known politician championing Alberta’s ‘leave’ side yet

Janet Brown, CEO of Janet Brown Opinion Research, said that the coming weeks will be critical as Albertans will grapple with the question of what it means for them to stay in Canada, and what the memorandum of understanding between Ottawa and their province about pipelines means for them.

She noted that the separation question is one of 10 referendum questions that also cover issues such as immigration and constitutional reform. The premier may be hoping, Brown said, Albertans vote “yes” on some of the other questions while rejecting separation, giving her a stronger mandate to negotiate with the federal government on immigration and constitutional matters.

“The separation question will get the most attention, for sure, but there are other questions being asked,” said Brown.

“And from the premier’s point of view, what she’s hoping is that people will say ‘yes’ to remaining in Canada, but they’ll also say ‘yes’ to some of the other questions about greater control over policy by Alberta.”

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said that Poilievre and the 33-member Conservative caucus from that province could play a critical role in the upcoming referendum to make Canada’s case to Albertans. He noted that Poilievre was born and raised in Alberta, and currently represents a rural riding in the province. Along with his 33 Alberta colleagues, the party leader could make a convincing case for the remain side.

Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research, centre, says AI ‘slopaganda’ and misinformation is fuelling separatism sentiment in Alberta, and must be reined in. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

“The first thing is to understand that this is about a desire for recognition and for change, and the need for federal institutions to find a way to get Canada’s most economically important province and one of its fastest-growing on side with our national project,” said Bricker.

“So, this referendum offers them an opportunity to raise awareness among the Alberta population about how federalism actually works for them, but that means that some things have to change. It’s not that you just go in and say, ‘Everything is great, why don’t you just vote for us?’”

Bricker said it remains to be seen who is leading the sovereignty side. In the 1980 referendum, prominent Quebec politicians like René Lévesque led the separatist side, and Lucien Bouchard led it in the 1995 referendum. So far, there’s no well-known politician championing the “leave” side from Alberta.

Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research, said one of the main drivers of separatist sentiment is misinformation spread through social media and AI-generated “slopaganda” originating from outside the country, particularly from the United States. He said this content promotes misleading information that an independent Alberta would eliminate taxes, that Canada is “looting” Alberta, or that Albertans would automatically benefit from a currency exchange and their dollar will be at par with the U.S. greenback.

He argued that the federal government should take urgent measures to counter such disinformation and prevent its spread. Graves said that the number of people influenced by misinformation in Alberta is nearly double that of the rest of the country. He argued the government should not allow foreign actors to spread misleading information designed to tempt Albertans to leave the federation

“If you could have a successful program which confronted that—and we know there is elasticity in the moderately disinformed, not the extremely disinformed—you could probably move enough pieces that you would really reduce the spectre of this problem,” said Graves.


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“I don’t see much going on on that front, and it’s a big exposed flank, not just for Alberta, by the way, I think in general in Canada that we don’t have a very good plan for dealing with foreign interference or online harm,” said Graves.

He said that based on his polling, 90 per cent of Canadians do not want generative AI used in political campaigns.

Graves said Canadians want more oversight and stronger safeguards, and do not want AI-driven political messaging circulating in a “Wild West” environment. He argued that AI-generated misinformation is distorting the public debate by giving Albertans a false impression of what would happen if the province were to become an independent country.

Much of this content, he said, is being disseminated through social media platforms, YouTube, and other online sources.

On messaging, Graves said, the focus should remain positive. While he believes the chance that Alberta separates from Canada is extremely low, he warned that separation referendums can have corrosive effects on social cohesion and national unity that may persist long after the vote is over.

arana@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

 

Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor at The Hill Times. He reports on parliamentary caucuses, nomination contests, party leadership campaigns, Prime Minister’s Office, and cabinet. Rana loves to chat with sources on the record or on a not-for-attribution basis, especially when they have verifiable story tips that could be followed as news stories. Born and raised in Pakistan, Rana speaks Punjabi, Urdu, and Hindi. See all stories BY ABBAS RANA