For months now, Alberta business groups and labour unions have been predicting an economic meltdown in the province while the spectre of separation hangs over Albertans’ heads.

Doug Griffiths, who is president of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce (and who was once one of the reddest Tory ministers in the government of red Tory premier Alison Redford), has been leading the surge of fearmongering.

Earlier this month, Griffith insisted hundreds of businesses were already withdrawing investments from Alberta, or at least delaying investment decisions because of the turmoil brought on by the separatist debate.

The risk of separatism is “already beginning to have consequences,” Griffith told Postmedia after he had returned from a trip to Ottawa where he sought to assess the debate’s impact on federal cabinet members, MPs, senators and other officials.

It’s “a distraction from the real issues around infrastructure investment, business growth, and the potential Edmonton has to be an international city,” Griffin claimed. Talk of separatism, according to the Chamber CEO, is reducing “Alberta’s opportunity to lead Canada in economic growth.”

No it’s not, at least not yet.

According to a June economic forecast published by ATB Financial, Alberta is still leading the country in economic growth, job creation and in-migration from other provinces.

And it is expected to lead in all of those categories through the rest of 2026 and all of 2027.

Doesn’t sound to me like separatist talk (and that’s all it is for now — talk) is killing the province’s economy.

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And if the separatists must stop insisting independence would be quick, cheap and easy, than the pro-Confederation forces have to stop insisting the current debate is tanking our economy.

Neither side does voters any favours by deceiving themselves.

According to ATB, under the best-case scenario, Alberta’s economy will grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year. Even if that turns out to be unrealistic, Alberta can expect 2.6 and 2.4 per cent growth.

The national economy is expected to grow by about 0.9 per cent this year and maybe 1.6 per cent next.

Could that change if the separatists win the referendum this fall and the province is forced to hold a for-real referendum on whether Alberta stays or goes? For sure.

And if the province is made to hold a simple “stay or leave” referendum in the future, could a “leave” vote cause significant economic dislocation? Without a doubt.

The U.K. economy didn’t suffer much until after the Brexit vote had been won by the “Leave” campaign over the “Remainers.” Then in fairly short order it dove six to eight per cent.

Prior to the election of the Parti Quebecois in 1976, Montreal had been the financial capital of Canada. Within four years of the separatist win, at least a 125,000 people had left the province and major financial headquarters — Sun Life, Royal Bank and even the Bank of Montreal — had shifted their headquarters to Toronto.

That is less likely to happen in Alberta because what attracts investment here is oil, and the oil can’t be moved. But that’s not to say there would be no impact on aerospace, data centres and a host of other high-tech businesses.

One of the pleasant asides from the ATB report is that for the first time in a long time, Alberta’s robust job growth is being driven more by non-oil jobs than oil jobs.

People are moving to Alberta for more than just oil and gas.

You’ve probably seen the headlines that Canada population has shrunk for three straight quarters. Over the past year, the national population shrank by 0.5 per cent. However, over the last 12 months, Alberta’s population grew by 0.9 per cent.

People, particularly from other provinces, are moving here for quality of life, affordability and close proximity to plenty of recreation.

That could change if the province ever votes for real to leave Canada, but it hasn’t changed yet.

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