{"id":103357,"date":"2026-06-25T16:43:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T16:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/103357\/"},"modified":"2026-06-25T16:43:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T16:43:16","slug":"canada-not-in-recession-but-growth-stuck-at-0-7-deloitte-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/103357\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada not in recession, but growth stuck at 0.7%, Deloitte says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, argues that the widely used two-quarter rule is “overly simplistic” and risks mischaracterising<\/a> what is actually happening in the Canadian economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For mortgage brokers, suppressed growth without a full recession means buyer demand is delayed, not destroyed. BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri warned in June that “it’s the economic uncertainty \u2014 both related to the trade war and the Iran war \u2014 that will likely keep a lot of buyers, especially first-time buyers, on the sidelines,” he told Canadian Mortgage Professional<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The CUSMA deadline and what lies ahead<\/p>\n

Deloitte cited unresolved US trade tensions as Canada’s biggest economic risk. The Canada\u2013United States\u2013Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which shields an estimated 95% of Canadian goods from US tariffs<\/a>, is approaching a July 1 renewal deadline<\/a>. A failure to extend the agreement would trigger annual reviews until 2036.<\/p>\n

St-Arnaud previously warned that the outcome would be the summer’s most consequential risk for trade<\/a>. “We have bigger concerns coming up this summer with the review of CUSMA,” he said. “That will be more consequential in terms of what’s going to happen with tariffs.”<\/p>\n

Deloitte identified two growth drivers for the longer term: government investment in infrastructure, defence, and critical minerals \u2014 with fixed government investment projected to rise 3.7% in 2026 after surging 7.3% in 2025 \u2014 and unlocking private capital through tax incentives, the removal of interprovincial trade barriers, and AI and re-skilling investment, policies expected to pull forward deferred business spending in 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union, argues that the widely used two-quarter rule is “overly simplistic”…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103358,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,37254,4613,11456],"class_list":["post-103357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-canada","tag-canada-economy-growth","tag-canadian-economy","tag-deloitte-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}