{"id":110241,"date":"2026-06-30T15:14:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T15:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/110241\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T15:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T15:14:10","slug":"canadas-economy-rebounds-after-a-stagnant-stretch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/110241\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada’s economy rebounds after a stagnant stretch"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cToday\u2019s data show that the Canadian economy sprang back to life,\u201d Grantham said. (James MacDonald\/Bloomberg)<\/p>\n

\n June 30, 2026 10:38 AM, EDT<\/p>\n

Key Takeaways:\"Toggle
\nCanada\u2019s GDP expanded 0.1% in May after 0.5% growth in April, setting up 2.3% annualized second-quarter growth.The rebound was driven by oil and gas, manufacturing, construction and real estate, challenging claims of a prolonged downturn.CIBC\u2019s Andrew Grantham said the rebound would not erase the first-quarter output gap, and forecast no Bank of Canada rate change this year. <\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s economy is set to rebound sharply in the second quarter amid a spike in oil production, ending a half-year of stagnation.<\/p>\n

Gross domestic product expanded 0.1% in May, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Canada released June 30. It rose 0.5% in April, above the 0.4% growth expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey and the fastest pace since July 2025.\n \t \t\t<\/p>\n

Assuming no growth in June, the industry-based output data suggest Canada\u2019s economy will expand at a 2.3% annualized pace in the second quarter, a major acceleration after a half-year of flat industrial output.<\/p>\n

The data will dispel claims that Canada is in the midst of a prolonged downturn. In May, the statistics agency reported that expenditure-based GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters starting at the end of last year, satisfying one condition of a recession.\n \t\t<\/p>\n

While most economists and the central bank have rejected that label, U.S. trade policy and an abrupt slowdown in immigration of non-permanent residents have led to weaker, choppier growth. The Bank of Canada expects the economy will be in excess supply through most of 2026.<\/p>\n

PREMIUM:\u00a0The Freight Market Has Finally Turned<\/a><\/p>\n

The two-year Canadian government bond yield rose after the release to 2.73% as of 8:58 a.m. in Ottawa. The loonie was about 0.1% weaker at C$1.42 per U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n

\u201cToday\u2019s data show that the Canadian economy sprang back to life,\u201d Andrew Grantham, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in an email.<\/p>\n

While the projected rebound in the second quarter would be above the Bank of Canada\u2019s latest estimate of 1.5%, it still wouldn\u2019t make up for the first-quarter miss in the output gap, Grantham said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe continue to forecast no change in the Bank of Canada\u2019s overnight rate this year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Goods-producing industries rose 1.2% in April, Statistics Canada reported, driven by oil and gas extraction. The increase in petroleum output was due to a rebound in synthetic crude oil production, which the agency said followed longer-than-anticipated unscheduled maintenance that tempered growth through the first three months of the year.<\/p>\n

Oil and gas extraction also ramped up off the country\u2019s Atlantic coast, coinciding with a global spike in petroleum prices because of the war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s manufacturing sector expanded 0.6% in April. Construction output rose for the first time in five months. Real estate activity also grew, reflecting an increase in housing resale activity, the agency said, particularly in Toronto.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cToday\u2019s data show that the Canadian economy sprang back to life,\u201d Grantham said. (James MacDonald\/Bloomberg) June 30, 2026…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":110242,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,20330,400,437],"class_list":["post-110241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-canada","tag-gdp","tag-tariffs","tag-trade-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=110241"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110241\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/110242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=110241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=110241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=110241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}