{"id":117993,"date":"2026-07-06T11:00:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/117993\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T11:00:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:00:34","slug":"less-than-50-per-cent-chance-pipeline-deal-attracts-hope-but-also-skepticism-in-oilpatch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/117993\/","title":{"rendered":"‘Less than 50 per cent chance’: Pipeline deal attracts hope, but also skepticism in oilpatch"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Del-Mondor-1\"<\/a> Political factors are stacked up against the new West Coast pipeline project, says Del Mondor, head of Aldon Oils. (Credit: Brian Zinchuk\/File) <\/p>\n

A proposed $35-billion oil pipeline to the West Coast \u2014 backed by the federal and Alberta governments \u2014 signals the country is willing to produce and export more crude, industry insiders say. <\/p>\n

Even as the deal reached by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith appeared like an improbable milestone, some insiders and observers worried it may not be enough to get the mega-project across the finish line. <\/p>\n

The one million barrel per day line to shipping terminals in British Columbia would give producers more options than selling to the U.S. at “discount” prices, said Paul Colborne, chief executive of Surge Energy Inc. <\/p>\n

“We’ve opened up a market,” said Colborne. “We now take another million barrels of our oil, and we have negotiating power to take it to China, India, Africa (or) Asia. <\/p>\n

The federal and provincial governments formed a partnership to build a 1,200 kilometre pipeline to the Pacific Coast, with Calgary’s Pembina Pipeline Corp. controlling a 10 per cent stake and an option to double its position later on. <\/p>\n

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said that her government submitted its pipeline proposal to the federal office that fast-tracks nation-building infrastructure projects. <\/p>\n

The proposed pathway would largely use the same route already carved out by the Trans Mountain pipeline, starting outside of Edmonton at Bruderheim, Alta., with a diversion near the end to a port at Roberts Bank, B.C. <\/p>\n

Mark Parsons, the chief economist at the Alberta bank ATB Financial, said many questions remain, including who exactly is going to foot the bill for the pipeline. <\/p>\n

“We’re still not building it into our economic forecast,” said Parsons. “We just want to see a little bit more certainty that this is indeed going ahead.” <\/p>\n

Canada’s pipelines are largely routed southbound to American refineries. Del Mondor, who runs a privately held producer in Weyburn, Sask., said that if this pipeline is anything like Trans Mountain, it could mean that producers can fetch attractive prices. <\/p>\n

“Optionality is king. The ability for us to chase the highest price for our crude is critical,” said Mondor, chief executive of Aldon Oils Ltd. <\/p>\n

Still, Mondor said political factors are stacked up against the project. The same issues that led to other pipeline projects getting shelved could derail this one, he said. <\/p>\n

“I’m giving this less than 50 per cent chance of happening.” <\/p>\n

Parsons said that Canada grew its oil exports to Asia by $4 billion in 2025, and this pipeline would boost those exports headed across the Pacific Ocean. <\/p>\n

Capital spending in the oilpatch is half of the record highs reached in 2014, Parsons said. A new pipeline would allow for growth and more spending in an industry that hasn’t seen much greenfield expansion in a decade. <\/p>\n

“The reason this is so important is because, for the oil and gas industry to get that next leg of growth, they need new pipeline capacity,” said Parsons. <\/p>\n

But some experts said they are not sure the line would offer producers the most cost-effective option to ship their oil, given the massive, $35.2 billion price tag. <\/p>\n

Pipeline companies typically recover their costs by imposing tolls on every barrel of oil that moves through their lines. <\/p>\n

We just want to see a little bit more certainty that this is indeed going ahead <\/p>\n

Richard Masson, an industry consultant and former chief executive for the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission, said he worries the massive construction cost might make the tolls too high for producers. <\/p>\n

“If that is the case, then you won’t get shippers to sign up for that,” said Masson. “It’s not competitive.” <\/p>\n

Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow at the public policy think tank Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said a private company would typically recoup construction costs over a 12-year period. But she expects the government would charge lower tolls over a longer period. <\/p>\n

“It makes sense for government to make the real money off the taxes and the royalties,” said Exner-Pirot. <\/p>\n

Alberta expects government revenues to increase through taxes, royalties and other payments linked to higher production and economic activity. For instance, the Smith government believes the project would generate $17 million in property taxes alone for Alberta and $51 million for British Columbia, with expectations the revenue would “increase significantly” over the pipeline’s lifetime. <\/p>\n

While the pipeline agreement signals a willingness in Ottawa to expand the country’s oil production, industry experts are cautiously optimistic that it will come to fruition over the next decade. <\/p>\n

“It was so improbable that we could find a middle ground on a pipeline in Canada,” said Exner-Pirot. “You would never have thought it possible two years ago.” <\/p>\n

While the provinces and federal governments have aligned \u2014 B.C. Premier David Eby vowed that he wouldn’t fight the project \u2014 the industry needs to get behind it as well, said Kyle Bertamini, an analyst at the energy market intelligence firm Enverus. <\/p>\n

“You need the oil to flow and producers to kind of get behind it. So that’s kind of the last major hurdle,” he said. <\/p>\n

NyKing@postmedia.com<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Political factors are stacked up against the new West Coast pipeline project, says Del Mondor, head of Aldon…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117994,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[40250,239,3178,40249,111,38671,8217,40251,15163,445,10698,17819,22617],"class_list":["post-117993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mark-carney","tag-aldon-oils","tag-british-columbia","tag-danielle-smith","tag-del-mondor","tag-mark-carney","tag-mark-parsons","tag-oil-pipeline","tag-paul-colborne","tag-pipeline-projects","tag-prime-minister-mark-carney","tag-provincial-governments","tag-trans-mountain","tag-trans-mountain-pipeline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}