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Canada\u2019s decision to join a European-Japanese sixth-generation fighter program<\/a> is another sign of more countries looking to develop their own capabilities instead of relying on the U.S. and American-made systems, experts say\u2014a larger trend that could potentially drive up costs for U.S.-made systems and spare parts.<\/p>\n And while President Donald Trump had previously suggested the U.S. may try to export its own sixth-gen fighter, the F-47, Canada\u2019s move, announced July 21 during the Farnborough International Airshow in England, also reinforces how unlikely that is, the experts said.\t\t<\/p>\n Canada will be an observer to the Global Combat Air Programme, or GCAP, a joint venture between the U.K., Italy, and Japan. The U.K.\u2019s Ministry of Defence said in a release that Canada, as the first observer nation in GCAP, will receive direct insight into its capability development, industrial collaboration, and long-term delivery plans. Canada has not yet committed to buying GCAP and will not have a say in making decisions on the program, but the U.K. release said Canada\u2019s observer status will give it privileged access to the program and \u201cpaves the way for discussions on Canada\u2019s future participation and contribution to GCAP.\u201d<\/p>\n Doug Birkey, executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, noted that Canada\u2019s decision fits a larger trend of \u201callies pushing to buy domestic systems for a variety of reasons. Part of it can be politics. Pat of it can be just desire to keep the money within the nation or the region.\u201d<\/p>\n The political relationship between the U.S. and Canada has deteriorated as of late. Trump has called for the U.S. to annex Canada as its \u201c51st state\u201d and announced a new slate of tariffs on July 20. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued for a \u201cmiddle powers\u201d strategy whereby Canada relies less upon the U.S. and other global superpowers. <\/p>\n Canadian defense minister David McGuinty said at a July 21 press briefing in London that his country would still be joining GCAP even if the U.S. and Canada were not in the midst of a trade dispute\u2014though he did call the latest U.S. tariffs \u201cunilateral.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis is about recognizing that we have got to come together,\u201d McGuinty said. At the recent NATO conference in Ankara, Turkey, he said, multiple members asserted \u201cit was time for our member states to come together in a way that we haven\u2019t previously done, that no one nation is going to be able to deal with these challenges alone, and that there is strength in cooperation.\u201d\t\t<\/p>\n U.K. defense minister Wes Streeting said the four nations\u2019 participation shows a commitment to shared values and interests, and a commitment to deepen defense and industrial cooperation \u201cwith a close ally.\u201d<\/p>\n F-47<\/p>\n The U.S. is deep into developing its own sixth-gen fighter through the F-47 program, with a planned first flight in 2028<\/a>. And when Trump announced the designation and named Boeing as the contractor in March 2025, he suggested allies may one day get their hands on the air dominance platform.<\/p>\n \u201cOur allies are calling constantly, they want to buy them also,\u201d Trump said. \u201cAnd certain allies, we\u2019ll be selling them perhaps toned-down versions. We\u2019d like to tone them down about 10 percent, which probably makes sense, because someday maybe they\u2019re not our allies, right?\u201d<\/p>\n Despite those comments, Canada was unlikely to ever join the F-47 program, experts agreed.<\/p>\n The F-47 will likely be too expensive for Canada, Birkey said, and its status as a long-range air-to-air fighter, best geared towards a Pacific theater fight against China, makes it a poor fit for Canada.\t\t<\/p>\n Indeed, Clark said there have been no public indications besides Trump\u2019s initial comments that foreign sales are in the cards. Defense budget analyst Bryon Callan wrote in a July 21 newsletter that F-47 \u201cmay have no export prospects given its cost and the desire of the U.S. to protect its technology.\u201d A desire to protect key technologies previously led Congress to ban any exports<\/a> of the fifth-generation F-22, which the F-47 is meant to replace.<\/p>\n \u201cThe U.S. has already boxed itself out when it comes to next-generation aircraft\u201d sales, Clark said in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine.<\/p>\n With the F-47 off the table, countries who want sixth-generation fighters have to develop them themselves. Germany, Spain, and France had been pursuing such a program, the Future Combat Air Systems\u2019 fighter project, but that effort collapsed earlier this year. That meant GCAP is \u201cthe only game in town\u201d for a country like Canada, Clark said.<\/p>\n Bigger Picture<\/p>\n While Canada was never likely to join the F-47 program, its turn to GCAP fits with a broader trend of hedging against reliance on U.S.-made systems.<\/p>\n Canada, the U.K., and Italy were all partners in developing the Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and Japan has bought F-35s as well. But now, \u201cthese countries are looking at [the current environment] and saying, \u2018Well, do I want to be in a situation where I have to have good relations with the U.S. because I\u2019m dependent upon a U.S. company to support my sophisticated piece of hardware?\u201d Clark said.\t\t<\/p>\n Indeed, Canada has recently paused plans to buy 88 F-35s and is now considering a mixed fleet of F-35s and Canadian-made Saab Gripen-E fighters. The Canadian government is on contract for 16 F-35s but could stop procurement after that.<\/p>\n