\t\t\t\t\tRelated Articles<\/p>\n
\t \t \n\tBy The new duties on alcoholic beverages, dairy products and a variety of goods such as seeds, hockey sticks, antiques, cement, motorcycles, plywood, clothing and Christmas ornaments would affect five per cent of Canada\u2019s exports to the U.S. In a note on Tuesday, Derek Holt, Scotiabank\u2019s head of capital markets economics, estimated they would raise the effective U.S. tariff rate from 5.49 per cent to 8.6 per cent.<\/p>\n But the impact would be uneven. \u201cRegionally, British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario look to bear the most pain, with the latter two provinces already taking<\/a> the brunt of the heavy metal and auto duties,\u201d BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri wrote<\/a> July 30. He estimated the tariffs could cause annual real GDP growth to drop by about half a percentage point.<\/p>\n Andrew Hencic, senior economist at TD Bank, noted Canadian businesses are used to the chaos by now. \u201cBusinesses have been operating under a cloud of uncertainty for over a year,\u201d he wrote<\/a> shortly after the tariffs were announced, \u201cand although the new announcements are likely to dent confidence further, a repeat of the scale of the confidence shock from 2025 remains a tail risk.\u201d<\/p>\n The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has called for a swift resolution. \u201cThe introduction of higher tariffs would damage both economies, drive up costs for U.S. families, further disrupt critical supply chains, and risk the 13 million American jobs that depend on trade under [CUSMA],\u201d Neil Herrington, senior vice-president for the Americas, said<\/a> in a statement Tuesday.<\/p>\n The (possible) retaliation<\/p>\n \u201cI have a plan for every situation,\u201d Carney said Monday in St. John\u2019s, N.L., when asked whether the federal government intends to boost support for businesses or launch new counter-tariffs.\u00a0<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s chief trade negotiator Janice Charette has warned<\/a> U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer the Section 338 tariffs would increase the pressure on Ottawa to hit back. As Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, put it<\/a> to The Logic last week, sticking with the choice to impose them would mean \u201cwe can\u2019t even talk about anything else.\u201d<\/p>\n Scotiabank\u2019s Holt wrote Tuesday that he would be \u201ca cautious optimist right up to the deadline,\u201d but outlined a few possible retaliation scenarios. Among them: repeating a version of the counter-tariffs that Canada slapped<\/a> on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports in March 2025, including alcoholic beverages. Holt said that would \u201cclose the loop\u201d by ensuring booze-related consequences stretch across the country, given Alberta and Saskatchewan lifted their bans last year.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously this risks spiraling escalation but if that\u2019s what it takes into midterms, so be it,\u201d Holt wrote, referring to the U.S. elections in November, which could weaken Trump\u2019s influence over the U.S. Congress. Canada could also expand retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos to include parts. \u201cThis is a very politically powerful tool given the U.S. auto lobby notwithstanding some pain to Canadians net of substitution effects,\u201d Holt wrote.<\/p>\n Carney, meanwhile, suggested Canada would not restrict exports of Canadian oil and other natural resources to the U.S. \u201cOne of the biggest commodities, arguably the best, is trust,\u201d he said<\/a> last month in Red Deer, Alta., alongside Premier Danielle Smith, who has opposed<\/a> using energy as leverage since last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n What Canada wants<\/p>\n Canadian negotiators are seeking<\/a> a comprehensive deal that would also reduce Section 232 tariffs the Trump administration placed on steel, aluminum, autos and forestry products. They also want the U.S. to launch formal talks with Canada on the renewal of CUSMA, also known as the USMCA.<\/p>\n U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose department led the national security investigations that resulted in Section 232 tariffs, joined<\/a> Greer for the meeting with Charette and Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc on Monday in Washington, D.C. Yet the two sides reportedly remain far apart on autos. As The Logic reported<\/a> last week, Canada is seeking a reduction in the Section 232 auto tariffs below the 15 per cent given to South Korea and Japan, with an exemption for any content produced in Canada, the U.S. or Mexico.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to get that as close to zero as possible to maintain the competitiveness of Canadian manufacturing,\u201d said Malinowski. The tariffs, now at 25 per cent, do not apply to U.S. content, but Malinowski said expanding the carve-out to North American content is vital, given the industry invested in meeting the 75 per cent regional content required under CUSMA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"OTTAWA \u2014 Even after Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with President Donald Trump, the threat of new 50…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":173012,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[27649,15705,17,13112,4939,235,386,290,6410],"class_list":["post-173011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-aluminum","tag-autos","tag-canada","tag-canada-u-s-trade","tag-cusma","tag-economy","tag-markets","tag-national","tag-steel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=173011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/173011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/173012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=173011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=173011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=173011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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\n\tDavid Reevely and Laura Osman\n\t<\/p>\n