The Blue Jays don\u2019t win many series at Tropicana Field. <\/p>\n
Heck, in general, the Rays don\u2019t lose many games at the Trop, either. Tampa owns the highest home winning percentage in baseball coming into Thursday (.661), and it\u2019ll look to add to that pristine mark with yet another victory over their division rival.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s preview this matinee rubber match and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.<\/p>\n
Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction, preview<\/p>\n
It\u2019s simply difficult to know which version of Shane Bieber you\u2019re getting on any given day. The veteran was great his last time out against the Yankees, holding New York to a single run across six innings of work. It\u2019s actually the fourth time in Bieber\u2019s past six outings that he\u2019s conceded a single earned run or fewer. On the surface, that\u2019s a positive sign, but then you have to remember the other two starts in that \u201csuccessful\u201d stretch. On August 9, Bieber gave up five earned runs to the Phillies, mostly on two moonshots off the bat of Kyle Schwarber. More damning was July 28 against the Nationals, when Bieber walked six of the nine batters he faced and was unable to even get out of the first inning. That\u2019s the type of performance that will make you question everything.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately for Toronto, the through line for Bieber\u2019s struggles in 2026 appears to be location. He\u2019s pitched exceedingly well at the Rogers Centre, but horrendously on the road. Opponents are slashing a cool .318\/.425\/.511 within the split, and the former Cy Young Award winner owns a 8.27 ERA when taking the mound outside of Canada this season. The hits don\u2019t stop there \u2014 literally. Tampa\u2019s bats are red-hot at the moment and they should pose a very formidable threat to Bieber and the Jays\u2019 bullpen. To wit, the Rays are hitting a league-best .288 in the month of August. On top of that, Tampa ranks second in wOBA (.344) and second in wRC+ (120), all while maintaining an AL-low 15.3% strikeout rate. Bieber will have his work cut out for him on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Conversely, even after registering 16 runs in the first two games of this series, Toronto sits 28th in ISO (.113) and 28th in expected wOBA (.275) since August 1. It should be a far less daunting matchup for Ian Seymour, who will make his 11th start of the season for the Rays. The left-hander has been solid as a member of the rotation and as a member of the bullpen, but I will say that his splits between the two are a little odd. It\u2019s not often you see a pitcher with a significantly higher strikeout rate as a starter, yet Seymour owns an impressive 32.1% mark in his prior 10 games. However, Seymour\u2019s also allowed a whopping 2.12 opponent home runs per nine in those contests. Give and take.<\/p>\n
Blue Jays vs. Rays pick, best bet<\/p>\n