The US and Canada haven’t exactly been on the best terms lately.<\/p>\n
First, LA’s Kendrick Lamar and Toronto’s Drake engaged in a very public battle of words. Then, at the Winter Olympics, the US beat Canada in overtime in both the men’s and women’s hockey gold-medal games.<\/p>\n
The Americans won all three of those contests. But Canada is coming back for a rematch \u2014 this time in the much more consequential arena of global trade. Consider the beef reheated<\/a>.<\/p>\n The index-level market impact on the US was muted on Monday in the first full day after trade-war tensions reignited. But underneath the surface, it was clear which parts of the market have the most at stake<\/a> if the US and Canada stay at odds for any length of time. Let’s break it down:<\/p>\n The winners: US steelmakers<\/p>\n The reasoning here is straightforward: With less competition north of the border, American steelmakers can grab more market share and juice profits. Top beneficiaries on Monday included Cleveland-Cliffs<\/a>, Nucor<\/a>, and Steel Dynamics<\/a>, although \u2014 as the chart below shows \u2014 they gave up most of their gains by end of day.<\/p>\n The losers: Auto manufacturers<\/p>\n The US and Canada may be neighbors, but their auto supply chains operate like one factory.<\/p>\n The years spent building an integrated North American logistics network may now work against automakers. Tariffs threaten to throw off production schedules, squeeze margins, and \u2014 if no resolution comes \u2014 eventually raise prices for Americans.<\/p>\n US automakers hit included Ford<\/a> (-3%), Stellantis<\/a>, (-3%), and GM<\/a> (-1%).<\/p>\n Watch the currency market<\/p>\n