Canada has left the door open to restarting trade negotiations with the United States. But if the two countries eventually reach another agreement, can Ottawa trust it to last?<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney said any future deal needs “stability and credibility<\/a>” after negotiations collapsed last month.<\/p>\n The breakdown marked the latest escalation in a trade war that has hit key Canadian sectors, including steel, aluminum and autos. The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50 per cent on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods<\/a> in August, prompting Ottawa to announce matching counter-tariffs beginning Sept. 8.<\/p>\n Carney has also pointed to shifting U.S. positions<\/a> since negotiations ended, raising questions about how much certainty another agreement could provide.<\/p>\n For Akaash Maharaj, a senior fellow at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, that uncertainty has become the central problem.<\/p>\n “In my mind, this is the single largest obstacle to any trade deal with the United States,” Maharaj told Yahoo Canada.<\/p>\n Can Canada trust another U.S. deal?<\/p>\n Maharaj pointed to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which came into force in 2020<\/a> after being negotiated during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term.<\/p>\n He argued the Trump administration’s willingness to impose tariffs despite the existing trade framework gives Canada reason to question how durable another agreement would be.<\/p>\n “The reality is that, given the Trump administration’s behaviour, no deal that any state signs with them can be considered final and binding,” Maharaj said.<\/p>\n That doesn’t mean he thinks Canada should stop negotiating.<\/p>\n Maharaj said an agreement could offer relief from the current dispute. However, Ottawa should view it differently than it may have viewed trade agreements in the past.<\/p>\n He described any new deal as “a promise of short-term peace” rather than a guarantee that further demands won’t follow.<\/p>\n “Even if a trade agreement is signed between the United States and Canada, the government of Canada has to understand that it cannot let its guard down,” he said.<\/p>\n Does Canada still need a deal?<\/p>\n Phil Triadafilopoulos, a University of Toronto political science professor, said Canada’s economic relationship with the U.S. gives Ottawa a powerful reason to keep pursuing an agreement.<\/p>\n “If Washington offers an acceptable deal, Carney will make the deal, and Canadians will probably thank him for it,” Triadafilopoulos told Yahoo Canada.<\/p>\n