{"id":197657,"date":"2026-09-05T22:01:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T22:01:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/197657\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T22:01:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T22:01:04","slug":"lessons-for-agriculture-from-the-canada-u-s-trade-collapse-620-ckrm-the-voice-of-saskatchewan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/197657\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons for agriculture from the Canada-U.S. trade collapse | 620 CKRM – The Voice of Saskatchewan"},"content":{"rendered":"

WESTERN PRODUCER \u2014 Just as it looked like a trade deal with the<\/a> United States was finally possible, Canada ended up back at square one, dealing with more tariffs and more trade uncertainty with little relief in sight.<\/p>\n

So, what comes next for Canadian agriculture?<\/p>\n

Among the ashes of the deal are hidden several lessons for the sector, some new and some persistent.<\/p>\n

Panellists at a webinar hosted by the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute<\/a> on Aug. 27, discussed some of these takeaways from the collapse of the Canada-U.S. trade deal and what they may mean for Canadian producers and agriculture policymakers.<\/p>\n

Political changes in U.S. won\u2019t erase the problem<\/p>\n

There has been some speculation<\/a> about Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s play to sway the U.S. midterm elections toward a more favourable outcome for Canada, but Lisa Raitt, a member of the Federal Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations, said she doubted political changes in the U.S. would bring the end of tariff pains.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the midterms and the results of the midterms have zero impact on what\u2019s happening,\u201d Raitt said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think it drives the Trump administration back to the table necessarily.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think that if there were more Democrats in Congress, for example, they\u2019re going to take up the challenge to right the wrongs with respect to trade with Canada. I don\u2019t think that\u2019s on the top of their agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n

Raitt, a former MP and shadow finance minister, said in her experience with the U.S., Democrats will often put a policy in place and Republicans will carry it on, and vice versa.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we have a real trade issue to deal with, and we\u2019ve got to deal with the administration.\u201d<\/p>\n

America\u2019s play on dairy<\/p>\n

With the issue of dairy having apparently been settled in trade talks, it may be the government considered changes in the tariff-rate quota administration, said agri-food analyst Al Mussell.<\/p>\n

\u201cBased on the work that I do, I think this would be costly for the Canadian dairy industry,\u201d said Mussell, who recently authored a policy note<\/a> on how TRQs could serve as one of Canada\u2019s options for dairy negotiations with the U.S.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe TRQs for dairy products that are in demand in Canada, which are cheese, butter, cream, etc., they\u2019re already filled,\u201d Mussell said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo when they\u2019re already filled \u2026 why care about the TRQ administration? I think the reason to care is that the U.S. interest is to export to Canada as high a valued product as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the U.S. could have been making a play for more influence over retailers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it\u2019s oriented more towards premium products, presumably that presents a prospect that some of the Canadian premium dairy products will be chased out of that space, which is a loss to Canadian dairy processors.\u201d<\/p>\n

How (not) to support struggling farmers<\/p>\n

Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute<\/a> in Washington, D.C., offered a U.S. perspective on the impacts tariffs have on farmers.<\/p>\n

In the U.S., income levels on farms have remained high. Glauber said this is largely due to the amount of money the government has been pumping into them.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you look at the major indicators like gross or net farm income or land values or any of those things, they look great,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut farmers look down the road and say, \u2018Well, what happens if these payments don\u2019t continue?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the aid often comes as blanket payments, in some cases passed in Congress and in others \u201cobscure budget provisions that allow them to give supplemental aid when farmers are hurting.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a consequence, I think the criticism that a lot of people would leverage is that there\u2019s some that haven\u2019t been helped enough, and others have been helped, you know, too much.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said there may not be any positive lessons for Canada to learn from this as farms feel the price pinch of tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe classic argument about subsidies is they\u2019ll distort decisions and other sorts of things over the long run,\u201d Glauber said.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou want to make sure whatever you\u2019re doing with payments is that you\u2019re not encouraging farmers to ignore market signals.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a bit of a moral hazard for the government. \u2026 It allows them to do anything, it \u2026 allows the bull to go through the china shop and someone\u2019s following the bull with a big chequebook saying, \u2018Don\u2019t worry about this.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

What it means for CUSMA and investment<\/p>\n

Raitt said the Canadian government\u2019s initial strategy on U.S. trade came in three main steps:<\/p>\n

prevent the proposed Section 338 tariffs<\/p>\n

get some relief on existing Section 232 tariffs, and<\/p>\n

The concern now is the renewed uncertainty and what it means for business investment.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re holding back on making decisions on investment,\u201d Raitt said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re holding back on business plans. They\u2019re holding back on development.\u201d<\/p>\n

Craig Johnston, chief economist at Farm Credit Canada, echoed the sentiment.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re in a world of tariffs right now, it seems, between, unfortunately, the two countries,\u201d Johnston said, \u201cand that is having an effect on business investment in both countries, but certainly is having a strong effect in Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the impacts of past U.S. tariffs, including the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d round of 2025<\/a>, have not been as drastic as initially anticipated but have still damaged many business-to-business relationships.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s really the focus of our attention, is trying to identify those and think about how best we can support those businesses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where Canada falls short<\/p>\n

Several panellists said the trade war has emphasized some areas for improvement in the Canadian agriculture sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got some work on productivity,\u201d Mussell said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not going to say anything that\u2019s particularly new here, but we\u2019ve got work to do on productivity, and badly needed work.\u201d<\/p>\n

One challenge, he argued, is that Canada is not a major producer of anything.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlong with everything else, we\u2019re gonna be challenged to have scale,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, we\u2019re export players, but we don\u2019t deal in the mass volumes that really get the unit cost down, etc.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to be challenged to have scale. \u2026 Again, this isn\u2019t a new problem; it\u2019s just highlighted by the crisis that we\u2019re in today.\u201d<\/p>\n

Johnston said the Canadian agriculture sector is now at an inflection point \u2014 being able to capitalize on growing food demand and a global appetite for trade diversification.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think there\u2019s a strong opportunity in front of Canada to capitalize on that, but it\u2019s going to require investment.\u201d<\/p>\n

What can farmers do?<\/p>\n

Raitt offered two pieces of advice for Canadian farmers and ranchers now staring down another trade war.<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst of all, if you have any connections and contacts and clients on the other side of the border, please do encourage them to let their congressperson or their senator or their legislative representative know that Canada is so important to their own economic well-being, and that a quicker resolution to this is far preferable than something going on for years and years and years,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The second piece of advice was more domestic.<\/p>\n

\u201cTalk to your lender,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cOr if it\u2019s your bank, talk to your relationship manager. Figure out what\u2019s going on. There\u2019s programming available from the Canadian government that may be of help. And if it\u2019s not of help, then you should definitely tell somebody that they need to have a better program in place.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0About the author<\/p>\n

Jonah Grignon<\/a><\/p>\n

Reporter<\/p>\n

Jonah Grignon is a reporter with GFM based in Ottawa, where he covers federal politics in agriculture. Jonah graduated from Carleton University\u2019s school of journalism in 2024 and started working full-time with GFM in Fall 2024, after starting as an intern in 2023. Jonah has written for publications like The Hill Times, Maisonneuve and Canada\u2019s History. He has also created podcasts for Carleton\u2019s student newspaper The Charlatan, Canada\u2019s History and Farm Radio International in Ghana.<\/p>\n

Read more from Jonah Grignon <\/a><\/p>\n

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