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<\/p>\nA nail-biting Quebec by-election that was supposed to make or break the Liberals\u2019 hopes of a majority government now looks more like a test of Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s popularity in a part of the country not given to displays of Canadian unity. <\/p>\n
The game has changed since Mr. Carney called the by-election in Terrebonne last month, after the Supreme Court of Canada annulled last year\u2019s federal election result in the former Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois stronghold, which the Liberals had won by a single ballot.<\/p>\n
Two recent floor-crossings have lowered the stakes for Mr. Carney, whose caucus is now just one seat shy of the 172 he needs to form a majority. On Monday, two Toronto-area by-elections in safe Liberal ridings will likely put him over the top. Terrebonne, an off-island suburb north of Montreal where the Liberal majority appeared to hang in the balance, now seems like a bonus. <\/p>\n
The fait accompli of a majority presents an opportunity for the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois, which has been battling against the allure of a stable government in Ottawa. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think people in Terrebonne have the freedom to vote in the best interests of Terrebonne,\u201d Bloc Leader Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet told reporters in the riding this week, calling on Bloc supporters tempted to vote Liberal \u201cto come home.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois Leader Yves-Fran\u00e7ois Blanchet and candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagn\u00e9 are trying to win over Terrebonne under the slogan of \u2018reprenons notre place,\u2019 let\u2019s take back our place.<\/p>\n
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This small-run beer, which the mayor\u2019s office commissioned and presented to the Bloc, is a callback to the last election and its mishap with mail-in ballots. \u2018Perdu dans l\u2019Malt\u2019 is a pun on \u2018lost in the mail.\u2019<\/p>\n
At a time of economic and geopolitical instability, Mr. Carney has established himself with strong approval ratings across much of the country. <\/p>\n
Four Conservatives have joined the Liberal ranks since last fall, including Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu on Wednesday, putting Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on the defensive. Another MP has defected from the NDP. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a general sense of many in this country of how crucial this time is and how important it is to work together,\u201d Mr. Carney said at a press conference in Quebec on Thursday. <\/p>\n
Hours after Ms. Gladu\u2019s announcement, a small army of Bloc MPs were knocking on doors with a new message. <\/p>\n
\u201cJust today, there was a Conservative who switched to the Liberals,\u201d MP Patrick Bonin told an undecided voter. \u201cThe Liberals are guaranteed to get their majority.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Patrick Bonin, at right with fellow Bloc MP Martin Champoux, went door-knocking the day Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu announced she would join the Liberals.<\/p>\n
Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n A social-media post on Mr. Champoux’s phone speculates that there could be more floor-crossers. The Liberals need 172 seats to form a majority.<\/p>\n At any other time, Terrebonniens might have been expected to vote firmly against a Liberal majority. Before last year, the riding voted consistently for the Bloc since the party\u2019s inception in the 1990s, except for a brief dalliance with the NDP in 2011. <\/p>\n But in the face of war overseas and the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump, Mr. Carney\u2019s promise to strengthen Canada seems to appeal. Even longtime Bloc supporters say they\u2019re pleased with him. <\/p>\n Maurice Bri\u00e8re, 94, grew up in the same Gasp\u00e9sie town where Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois founder Ren\u00e9 L\u00e9vesque was raised. Mr. Bri\u00e8re said he has always supported sovereigntist parties but if he casts a ballot on Monday, it will be for the Liberals. <\/p>\n \u201cNot because I\u2019m really a Liberal, but because it will be better for Quebec,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n That line of thinking is familiar to France Kirouette, 36, a Terrebonne resident, who has been volunteering on the Bloc campaign. She said many voters she\u2019s spoken with are undecided but drawn to the idea of a clear Liberal majority. <\/p>\n \u201cPeople tell me, \u2018I usually vote Bloc, but this time I\u2019m not sure because I want a strong government, and I want to be sure our economy is doing well,\u2019\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Tatiana Auguste, on campaign with Mr. Carney, is making a second try in Terrebonne after the last result was annulled.Christinne Muschi\/The Canadian Press<\/p>\n Last April, the Liberals won 44 of Quebec\u2019s 78 seats, while the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois was reduced to 22. Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste flipped Terrebonne by a single vote, unseating Bloc incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagn\u00e9. After the election, a would-be Bloc voter revealed that her mail-in ballot had not been counted<\/a> owing to an Elections Canada error. The Liberal victory was upheld in Quebec Superior Court, but the top court overturned that ruling<\/a> in February. <\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Emmanuelle Boss\u00e9 was the Terrebonne voter whose ballot, returned to her home because of an error in a pre-printed postal code, cast doubt on the 2025 race.<\/p>\n In March, Mr. Carney called simultaneous by-elections in Terrebonne and in the Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, formerly held by Liberal ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland. <\/p>\n The do-over is expected to be another close two-way race between Ms. Auguste and Ms. Sinclair-Desgagn\u00e9, though the Conservatives and the NDP have also fielded candidates. A total of 48 candidates have been confirmed, including dozens of protest candidates from the Longest Ballot Committee. To avoid printing lengthy ballots that have delayed results in the past, Elections Canada is requiring voters in Terrebonne to write in their preferred candidate\u2019s name.<\/p>\n Ms. Sinclair-Desgagn\u00e9 said the anxiety that played in the Liberals\u2019 favour last year has since lessened. \u201cPeople voted out of fear. So it really was a unique context,\u201d she told reporters this week. <\/p>\n But Pierre Berthiaume, president of the local chamber of commerce, said business owners in the region, which is home to several steel plants, remain concerned about Canada\u2019s trade relationship with the U.S. \u201cIt\u2019s causing a lot of uncertainty among our entrepreneurs,\u201d he said. \u201cMany of them are worried about what will happen next.\u201d<\/p>\n Terrebonne is changing quickly, with rising housing prices in Montreal driving young families to the suburb, said Mayor Mathieu Traversy.<\/p>\n The Canada-U.S. trade dispute has given Mayor Mathieu Traversy and Pierre Berthiaume, head of the chamber of commerce, much to think about as Terrebonne navigates a new economic climate.<\/p>\n The Barrage des Moulins serves as a reminder of Terrebonne\u2019s early industrial past, when milling grain and timber were big employers.<\/p>\n This week, Mr. Blanchet said the Liberals have campaigned strictly on the appeal of stability, with nothing else to offer Terrebonne now that the question of a majority is likely no longer in play. Amid the \u201ccult of Mr. Carney,\u201d they have forgotten to address local issues, he said, including concerns that the government could expropriate land in the riding to make way for a high-speed rail line. <\/p>\n Mr. Carney visited Terrebonne in February and again on Thursday as the Liberal convention got underway in Montreal. His face is on posters throughout the riding \u2013 a far cry from a 2024 by-election in Montreal, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s face was conspicuously absent from election signs. <\/p>\n Despite the Prime Minister\u2019s popularity, no one is taking anything for granted. Every Liberal MP from Quebec has spent time in the riding, as have all the Bloc MPs and several members of the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois caucus. <\/p>\n Though global events loom large, the by-election in Terrebonne will likely be won on its doorsteps. <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve learned in Terrebonne that every phone call we didn\u2019t make, every door we didn\u2019t knock on, and every person we didn\u2019t speak to could cost us the election,\u201d Mr. Blanchet said. <\/p>\n Politics in depth: More from The Globe and MailThe Decibel podcast<\/p>\n How well have Canadians gotten to know Mark Carney in his first year as prime minister? Feature writer Shannon Proudfoot spoke with The Decibel<\/a> about how he built his persona and how long his popularity might last. Subscribe for more episodes.<\/a><\/p>\n From our Ottawa bureau<\/p>\n Carney commits to not proroguing Parliament after April 13 by-elections<\/a><\/p>\n Carney says Liberal values are unchanged after socially conservative MP joins party<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/resizer\/v2\/BANIQJ2Z6NAVJFZGLND3SLJXJQ.JPG?auth=221c75215053d4c3eafd98c1ffcf8fb0f093cd186600466904474819c32e5bfb&width=600&height=400&quality=80&smart=true\")
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