You don\u2019t always get a player who can step into the NHL right away and make an impact, but the 2026 draft may have as many as five or six who do just that. And the Leafs, with the first selection, will obviously get one of them.<\/p>\n
Unlike a lot of teams that pick in the top five, the Leafs have a lot of established, veteran NHL talent. In fact, Toronto is one of the oldest teams in the NHL and has the majority of this past season\u2019s roster under contract, with 17 players signed and two more set to become restricted free agents (Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson) under team control. This is a group that\u2019s not that far removed from a 108-point season in 2024-25, albeit one that lost two key players (Mitch Marner to free agency and Chris Tanev to injury) and had a disastrous 30-point free fall down the standings a year later.<\/p>\n
The Leafs still have two top-line stars in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, both taken high in the draft 10 and 12 years ago, and two emerging young talents in Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan, giving the makings of a decent top-six forward group already.<\/p>\n
Their true talent, in other words, is not that of a bottom-five team. And that\u2019s before adding a top prospect in Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg and attempting to bolster the roster elsewhere.<\/p>\n
This is not going to be like Connor Bedard going to the Chicago Blackhawks or Macklin Celebrini to the San Jose Sharks, two markets where scorched earth rebuilds meant their No. 1 picks initially didn\u2019t have all that much to play with, and both clubs finished with just 52 points at the bottom of the NHL standings their first seasons. Whether the Leafs select McKenna or Stenberg, both young wingers will have better players to play with.<\/p>\n
The big question, however, is just how much of a difference a No. 1 pick can make on a team like this in Year 1?<\/p>\n
Part of what\u2019s interesting (and beneficial) about landing the top pick is that the player Toronto gets will be on a capped entry-level contract for their first three seasons in the NHL. The maximum a top pick can make in 2026-27 is a $1.025 million base salary, which is the only amount that has to count against the salary cap in Year 1.<\/p>\n
Players on ELCs can then earn up to $3.5 million in additional bonuses, which No. 1 picks are typically always given on their first deals. But a big chunk of those bonuses can be difficult to attain in Year 1 for players. Even those that are earned, meanwhile, can be shifted to the following season\u2019s cap hit as an overage charge, meaning the only salary the Leafs will need to accommodate for certain next season for sure is that $1.025 million figure.<\/p>\n
That means that if McKenna or Stenberg can step into a top-six role and produce right away, they\u2019ll do so at an absolute bargain against a projected $104 million cap.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s illustrate that with a quick examination of who the Leafs have signed for 2026-27. Here\u2019s a look at their projected lineup, including their cap situation, with McKenna penciled in on an ELC max deal and without any free agents signed.<\/p>\n
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