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<\/p>\nTwo developments this week amount to the most significant signal Canada\u2019s oil and gas sector has received in years. They point in the same direction. Together, they constitute an indictment.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
In May 2021, the International Energy Agency published its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap. The central finding: beyond projects already committed, no new oil and gas fields should be approved for development. The IEA reiterated this position in 2023. Its executive director, Fatih Birol, was celebrated in environmental circles as an \u201cunexpected hero of the climate fight.\u201d<\/p>\n
That finding became the most consequential energy policy statement of the decade. It was cited in Parliament, in courtrooms, in regulatory proceedings, and in the lending committees of every major bank. It provided the intellectual scaffolding for pipeline cancellations, the withdrawal of project financing, and the regulatory paralysis that has kept Canadian resource development in a holding pattern for years. Politicians who lacked the courage to oppose resource development on their own authority used the IEA\u2019s imprimatur to do it for them.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, Birol addressed a policy conference at Toronto\u2019s Fairmont Royal York. His message, as reported by Bloomberg\u2019s Melissa Shin: Canada has a \u201cgolden opportunity\u201d in energy and cannot afford to squander it.<\/p>\n
The Middle East crisis has removed 14 million barrels a day from global supply. Recovery will be gradual. In the aftermath, Birol said, there will be an \u201cenergy security risk premium.\u201d The most important asset Canada holds is trust.<\/p>\n
\u201cCanada doesn\u2019t have the luxury to be slow,\u201d Birol said. \u201cThe cost of missing this train will be incredible.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added that he wished there were \u201ca few more Canadas in the world\u201d to anchor a reliable and sustainable global energy system. Asked what he has told the Canadian government, Birol was direct: develop the resources and secure new export destinations.<\/p>\n
The agency that told the world to stop investing in oil has now told Canada to start. This is a reversal of historic proportions.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
The second development came from Calgary. Jon McKenzie, the CEO of Cenovus Energy, used the company\u2019s first-quarter earnings call to deliver what is arguably the most forceful public statement by a Canadian oil sands chief executive in recent memory.<\/p>\n
It was not an aside. It was a prepared address, delivered before the question period, on a call with analysts and investors who allocate capital across the global energy sector. McKenzie chose this audience deliberately.<\/p>\n
His argument was methodical. Canada possesses some of the highest quality, longest-life hydrocarbon resources in the world. These resources fund the social infrastructure Canadians depend on: schools, hospitals, roads, pensions, through the payment of taxes and royalties and the creation of high-paying jobs. Of the top 10 oil-producing nations, Canada is recognized as the most responsible producer across a broad range of metrics.<\/p>\n
The national policy response to this position of strength has been, in McKenzie\u2019s assessment, myopic. The dialogue has focused almost exclusively on the climate agenda while ignoring the economic and social contributions of responsible development. The result: a regulatory and fiscal framework that has made Canada uncompetitive.<\/p>\n
One greenfield oil sands project has been approved and built since 2013. One project in thirteen years.<\/p>\n
Capital has migrated to more competitive jurisdictions. Canada has ceded high-paying jobs, tax revenue, and royalties to Russia, Iran, Iraq, and the United States. National climate policies have not reduced global demand for oil by a single barrel. They have ensured that the barrels the world consumes are produced elsewhere, under weaker environmental standards, by less trustworthy suppliers.<\/p>\n
McKenzie identified the industrial carbon tax as unique to Canada. No other major oil-producing nation imposes one. Its effect, he argued, is not to decarbonize the Canadian industry but to drive investment out of the country.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is our time,\u201d McKenzie said. \u201cWe should be an energy superpower, and we need to take the right decisions to unlock investment and growth to the benefit of our economy and all Canadians.\u201d<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s response to the McKenzie remarks drew a sharp divide, suggesting the Liberal government\u2019s new majority hasn\u2019t resulted in an immediate policy shift that would enable what both Cenovus and the IEA are calling for.<\/p>\n
Carney acknowledged that Canadian oil production is at a record high \u2014 three million barrels per day a decade ago, over five million now \u2014 and conceded the benefits this brings. He then argued that emissions from the oil sands are among the largest sources of national emissions, and that Asia, the fastest-growing market, is looking for low-carbon supply. The government\u2019s strategy, he said, is to make the oil sands more competitive by reducing their emissions profile, principally through carbon capture. He cited the federal-Alberta memorandum of understanding as making \u201cgood progress.\u201d<\/p>\n
The difficulty with this position is that it is contradicted by the market it claims to serve.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior policy analyst whose work on Canadian energy and Arctic affairs is among the most rigorous in the field, responded directly. Cenovus, she noted, has operated in Asia for over a decade. \u201cI think they know better than Carney how much of a premium their customers and partners in Asia are willing to pay for Canadian heavy oil with carbon capture,\u201d she wrote, \u201cand I\u2019m guessing it\u2019s zero.\u201d<\/p>\n
Exner-Pirot made a further point: Canada\u2019s existing emissions reduction efforts are already quite ambitious and far exceed those of its competitors. Conditioning production growth on $20-billion carbon capture projects and escalating carbon prices will not decarbonize the global oil supply. It will transfer market share to producers with weaker climate commitments. In the midst of the worst oil supply shock in a generation, this is not a defensible trade-off.<\/p>\n
The prime minister\u2019s argument assumes that Asian buyers will pay a premium for Canadian oil because of its carbon profile. The company that actually sells Canadian oil to Asia says they will not. This is not a difference of opinion. It is a difference between theory and observed fact.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
The reckoning<\/p>\n
The IEA\u2019s 2021 roadmap told Canada its resources were stranded. Governments, regulators, and financial institutions acted accordingly. Projects were delayed, cancelled, or never proposed. Capital left. Competitors filled the gap.<\/p>\n
The IEA now says Canada has a golden opportunity and cannot afford to be slow. The CEO of one of Canada\u2019s largest producers says only one greenfield project has been approved in thirteen years and that capital is flowing to Russia, Iran, and Iraq. The prime minister\u2019s response is to promise that carbon capture will make the oil sands competitive in a market where the buyers are not paying for carbon capture.<\/p>\n
These three facts cannot coexist comfortably. Either the IEA was wrong then, or it is wrong now. Either McKenzie is overstating the damage, or Ottawa is understating it. Either Asian buyers will pay a low-carbon premium, or they will not.<\/p>\n
The evidence points one way.<\/p>\n
No other oil-producing country is doing this to itself.<\/p>\n
Canada can develop its resources, secure new export markets, and do so under the strongest environmental and human rights standards in the producing world \u2014 exactly as Birol urged. Or it can continue to build policy on assumptions the market has already rejected, and watch the opportunity pass to jurisdictions that do not share its scruples.<\/p>\n
The train Birol described is leaving. The platform is getting emptier. The cost of standing on it, as he said, will be incredible.<\/p>\n
Stewart Muir is the president and CEO of Resource Works Society.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg reporting by Melissa Shin, May 7, 2026. Cenovus Energy Q1 2026 earnings call, May 8, 2026. Prime Minister Carney remarks, May 7, 2026. Commentary by Heather Exner-Pirot. IEA Net Zero by 2050 report, May 2021.<\/p>\n
Resource Works News<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Two developments this week amount to the most significant signal Canada\u2019s oil and gas sector has received in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37893,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,9254,15301,11230,16336,16337],"class_list":{"0":"post-37892","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-canada","8":"tag-canada","9":"tag-canadian-energy-policy","10":"tag-cenovus-energy","11":"tag-energy-security","12":"tag-international-energy-agency","13":"tag-oil-sands-investment"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}