![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/poll-decoded-card-1024x764.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nDirection of the Country: Canada Remains More Positive Than the World<\/p>\n
Views about the direction of the country are evenly divided.<\/p>\n
Today, 44% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 44% say it is on the wrong track.<\/p>\n
Views of the world remain much more negative. Just 14% think the world is headed in the right direction, while 77% say it is on the wrong track. Views of the United States are similar, with 14% saying it is headed in the right direction and 79% saying it is on the wrong track.<\/p>\n
Optimism about Canada is highest in Atlantic Canada, where 54% say the country is headed in the right direction. This is followed by British Columbia at 47%, Ontario at 44%, Quebec at 43%, Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 40%, and Alberta at 32%.<\/p>\n
By age, 51% of Canadians aged 60 and over say the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 43% among those aged 18 to 29, 36% among those aged 30 to 44, and 42% among those aged 45 to 59.<\/p>\n
There are also differences by 2025 vote. Among Liberal voters, 70% say Canada is headed in the right direction. This compares with 34% among NDP voters, 27% among Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois voters, and 23% among Conservative voters.<\/p>\n
Direction of the Country \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Direction of the Country<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Region
\n Gender
\n Age
\n Income
\n 2025 Vote
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Direction of the Country \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?<\/p>\n
44% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction \u2014 tied with those saying wrong track. But views of the world and the USA are far more pessimistic: only 14% say each is on the right track.<\/p>\n
Right Direction \u2014 Canada \u2014 by Region<\/p>\n
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction<\/p>\n
RegionRight Direction
\n BC47%
\n AB32%
\n SK\/MB40%
\n ON44%
\n QC43%
\n ATL54%<\/p>\n
Right Direction \u2014 Canada \u2014 by Gender<\/p>\n
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction<\/p>\n
GenderRight Direction
\n Male47%
\n Female40%<\/p>\n
Right Direction \u2014 Canada \u2014 by Age<\/p>\n
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction<\/p>\n
Age GroupRight Direction
\n 18 to 2943%
\n 30 to 4436%
\n 45 to 5942%
\n 60 and over51%<\/p>\n
Right Direction \u2014 Canada \u2014 by Household Income<\/p>\n
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction<\/p>\n
IncomeRight Direction
\n Under $35K40%
\n $35K to $50K39%
\n $50K to $75K43%
\n $75K to $100K45%
\n $100K+49%<\/p>\n
Right Direction \u2014 Canada \u2014 by 2025 Federal Vote<\/p>\n
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction<\/p>\n
2025 VoteRight Direction
\n Liberal70%
\n Conservative23%
\n NDP34%
\n BQ27%<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Issue Agenda: Cost of Living Remains the Top Priority<\/p>\n
The rising cost of living remains the top issue facing the country.<\/p>\n
Two-thirds of Canadians, 66%, name the rising cost of living as one of the three most important issues facing Canada today.<\/p>\n
The economy is second at 39%, followed by Donald Trump and his administration at 36%, healthcare at 35%, and housing affordability and accessibility at 32%.<\/p>\n
Immigration is selected by 23%, while 15% select job security and unemployment, 14% crime and public safety, 13% climate change and the environment, and 12% inequality and poverty.<\/p>\n
Fewer Canadians select the rise of artificial intelligence at 8%, the threat posed by China and Russia at 6%, or Indigenous reconciliation at 3%.<\/p>\n
Top Three Priorities \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Top Three Priorities for the Federal Government<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Vote by Issue
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Most Important Issues Facing Canada \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.<\/p>\n
The rising cost of living remains the top priority by a wide margin at 66%, followed by the economy (39%), Donald Trump and his administration (36%), and healthcare (35%).<\/p>\n
The rising cost of living<\/p>\n
66%<\/p>\n
Donald Trump and his administration<\/p>\n
36%<\/p>\n
Housing affordability and accessibility<\/p>\n
32%<\/p>\n
Job security and unemployment<\/p>\n
15%<\/p>\n
Crime and public safety<\/p>\n
14%<\/p>\n
Climate change and the environment<\/p>\n
13%<\/p>\n
Inequality and poverty<\/p>\n
12%<\/p>\n
The rise of artificial intelligence<\/p>\n
8%<\/p>\n
The threat posed by China and Russia<\/p>\n
6%<\/p>\n
Indigenous reconciliation<\/p>\n
3%<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention by Top Issue \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Undecided removed. Among those who select each issue as a top 3 priority.<\/p>\n
Issue
\n \u25cf Liberal
\n \u25cf Conservative
\n Advantage
\n The rising cost of living40%36%LPCThe economy41%39%LPCHealthcare43%30%LPCDonald Trump and his administration57%20%LPCHousing affordability and accessibility41%28%LPCImmigration23%57%CPCJob security and unemployment41%34%LPCCrime and public safety35%44%CPCClimate change and the environment52%15%LPCInequality and poverty45%20%LPCThe threat posed by China and Russia41%42%CPCIndigenous reconciliation38%24%LPCThe rise of artificial intelligence54%29%LPC<\/p>\n
Liberals lead on 10 of 13 issues. Conservatives lead on Immigration, Crime and public safety, and The threat posed by China and Russia.<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Government Approval: Approval Reaches 57%<\/p>\n
Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney has reached 57%.<\/p>\n
Currently, 20% strongly approve and 37% mostly approve of the job the federal government is doing. Another 15% neither approve nor disapprove, while 12% mostly disapprove and 16% strongly disapprove.<\/p>\n
Overall, 57% approve and 28% disapprove. Approval is up three points from April, while disapproval is down one point.<\/p>\n
This produces a net approval score of +29.<\/p>\n
Government Approval \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Government Approval \u2014 Mark Carney<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Trend
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Government Approval \u2014 May 6, 2026 (Change from April 2026)<\/p>\n
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?<\/p>\n
Approve<\/p>\n
57%<\/p>\n
\u25b2 +3 from April<\/p>\n
Disapprove<\/p>\n
28%<\/p>\n
\u25bc -1 from April<\/p>\n
Neither approve nor disapprove<\/p>\n
15%<\/p>\n
57% of Canadians approve of the job the Carney government is doing \u2014 up 3 points from April 2026. Only 28% disapprove, down 1 point.<\/p>\n
Government Approval Trend \u2014 March 2025 to May 2026<\/p>\n
WaveApproveDisapproveMar 12-2534%50%Mar 20-2539%25%Mar 25-2541%25%Apr 8-2549%24%May 21-2550%24%Jun 5-2553%23%Jun 19-2552%25%Jul 2-2552%25%Jul 15-2552%27%Aug 7-2550%27%Aug 20-2549%30%Sep 2-2548%30%Sep 17-2550%30%Oct 1-2546%31%Oct 15-2548%32%Oct 29-2547%34%Nov 6-2544%34%Nov 27-2548%32%Dec 10-2547%35%Jan 14-2647%34%Jan 27-2654%31%Feb 10-2652%29%Feb 24-2652%30%Mar 11-2656%28%Mar 25-2654%30%Apr 8-2654%30%Apr 22-2654%29%May 6-2657%28%<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Leader Impressions: Carney Positive, Poilievre Negative<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to have positive personal ratings.<\/p>\n
Today, 54% of Canadians have a positive impression of Carney, 17% are neutral, 28% have a negative impression, and 2% don\u2019t know enough to say. His net impression is +26.<\/p>\n
Pierre Poilievre has a net impression of -10. Thirty-five percent have a positive impression of him, 16% are neutral, 45% have a negative impression, and 3% don\u2019t know enough to say.<\/p>\n
Avi Lewis has a net impression of -8. Eighteen percent have a positive impression of him, 32% are neutral, 26% have a negative impression, and 24% don\u2019t know enough to say.<\/p>\n
Carney\u2019s net impression is positive in every region: +26 in British Columbia, +6 in Alberta, +6 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +27 in Ontario, +36 in Quebec, and +40 in Atlantic Canada.<\/p>\n
Poilievre\u2019s net impression is positive in Alberta at +13 and Saskatchewan\/Manitoba at +12. It is negative in British Columbia at -13, Ontario at -9, Quebec at -26, and Atlantic Canada at -15.<\/p>\n
Party Leader Impressions \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Party Leader Impressions<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Carney Subgroups
\n Poilievre Subgroups
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Leader Impressions \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Do you have a positive or negative impression of [leader]?<\/p>\n
CARNEY<\/p>\n
Net Impression: +26<\/p>\n
POILIEVRE<\/p>\n
Net Impression: \u221210<\/p>\n
LEWIS<\/p>\n
Net Impression: \u22128<\/p>\n
Carney leads with a net impression of +26 (54% positive, 28% negative). Poilievre sits at \u221210 (35% positive, 45% negative). Lewis is at \u22128 but 24% say they don\u2019t know enough to say.<\/p>\n
Net Impression: Mark Carney \u2014 by Subgroup<\/p>\n
Net impression = % positive minus % negative<\/p>\n
SubgroupNet ImpressionCanada+26%BC+26%AB+6%SK\/MB+6%ON+27%QC+36%ATL+40%Male+25%Female+27%18 to 29+24%30 to 44+18%45 to 59+20%60 and over+39%Under $35K+11%$35K\u2013$50K+28%$50K\u2013$75K+25%$75K\u2013$100K+32%$100K++34%Urban+25%Suburban+29%Rural+22%Liberal (2025)+82%Conservative (2025)-33%NDP (2025)+34%BQ (2025)+18%<\/p>\n
Net Impression: Pierre Poilievre \u2014 by Subgroup<\/p>\n
Net impression = % positive minus % negative<\/p>\n
SubgroupNet ImpressionCanada-10%BC-13%AB+13%SK\/MB+12%ON-9%QC-26%ATL-15%Male-3%Female-17%18 to 29-9%30 to 44+4%45 to 59-6%60 and over-24%Under $35K-14%$35K\u2013$50K-4%$50K\u2013$75K-6%$75K\u2013$100K-11%$100K+-10%Urban-7%Suburban-16%Rural0%Liberal (2025)-60%Conservative (2025)+64%NDP (2025)-58%BQ (2025)-49%<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Carney Government vs. Trudeau Government: Majority See a Genuine Break<\/p>\n
A new question in this wave asked Canadians whether the Carney government represents a break from the Trudeau years or is essentially a continuation of them.<\/p>\n
A majority, 55%, say the Carney government represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years and has a different approach to managing the economy.<\/p>\n
Forty-five percent say the Carney government is essentially a continuation of the Trudeau years.<\/p>\n
The view that Carney represents a genuine break is highest in Atlantic Canada at 64%, followed by British Columbia at 59%, Ontario at 57%, Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 50%, Quebec at 48%, and Alberta at 47%.<\/p>\n
By age, 64% of those aged 60 and over say the Carney government represents a genuine break. This compares with 51% among those aged 18 to 29, 47% among those aged 30 to 44, and 53% among those aged 45 to 59.<\/p>\n
Among Liberal voters, 78% say the Carney government represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years. Among NDP voters, 64% say the same. Among Conservative voters, 29% say it represents a genuine break, while 71% say it is essentially a continuation.<\/p>\n
Carney vs Trudeau Government \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Carney Government vs Trudeau Government<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Region
\n Age
\n Vote Intention
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Views of the Carney Government in Comparison to the Trudeau Government<\/p>\n
Which of the following comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right?<\/p>\n
55%<\/p>\n
The Carney government represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years \u2014 it has a different approach to managing the economy<\/p>\n
45%<\/p>\n
The Carney government is essentially a continuation of the Trudeau years \u2014 the style has changed but the governing approach is the same<\/p>\n
55% of Canadians see the Carney government as a genuine break from the Trudeau years, while 45% see it as a continuation. Atlantic Canada (69%) and older Canadians (64%) are most likely to see it as a break.<\/p>\n
Carney vs Trudeau \u2014 by Region<\/p>\n
% seeing Carney government as a genuine break vs continuation of Trudeau years<\/p>\n
Region
\n Genuine Break
\n Continuation<\/p>\n
BC
\n 59%
\n 41%<\/p>\n
AB
\n 47%
\n 53%<\/p>\n
SK\/MB
\n 50%
\n 50%<\/p>\n
ON
\n 57%
\n 43%<\/p>\n
QC
\n 48%
\n 52%<\/p>\n
ATL
\n 69%
\n 31%<\/p>\n
Carney vs Trudeau \u2014 by Age<\/p>\n
% seeing Carney government as a genuine break vs continuation of Trudeau years<\/p>\n
Age Group
\n Genuine Break
\n Continuation<\/p>\n
18 to 29
\n 51%
\n 49%<\/p>\n
30 to 44
\n 47%
\n 53%<\/p>\n
45 to 59
\n 53%
\n 47%<\/p>\n
60 and over
\n 64%
\n 36%<\/p>\n
Carney vs Trudeau \u2014 by Current Vote Intention<\/p>\n
% seeing Carney government as a genuine break vs continuation of Trudeau years<\/p>\n
Vote Intention
\n Genuine Break
\n Continuation<\/p>\n
Liberal Party
\n 78%
\n 22%<\/p>\n
Conservative Party
\n 29%
\n 71%<\/p>\n
NDP
\n 64%
\n 36%<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Vote Intention: Liberals Lead by 10<\/p>\n
If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 46% of the vote among decided voters, compared with 36% for the Conservatives.<\/p>\n
The NDP is at 8%, the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois at 6%, the Greens at 3%, the People\u2019s Party at 1%.<\/p>\n
Compared with April 22, the Liberals are up one point, the Conservatives are unchanged, the NDP is unchanged, the Bloc is down one.<\/p>\n
Among those certain to vote, the Liberals are at 47%, the Conservatives at 36%, the NDP at 7%, the Bloc at 7%, the Greens at 1%, the People\u2019s Party at 1%.<\/p>\n
Regionally, the Liberals lead in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.<\/p>\n
In British Columbia, the Liberals are at 47%, the Conservatives at 35%, and the NDP at 14%.<\/p>\n
In Ontario, the Liberals are at 50%, the Conservatives at 37%, and the NDP at 9%.<\/p>\n
In Quebec, the Liberals are at 48%, the Bloc at 26%, the Conservatives at 20%, and the NDP at 2%.<\/p>\n
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 62%, the Conservatives at 30%, and the NDP at 8%.<\/p>\n
The Conservatives lead in Alberta, with 56% compared with 29% for the Liberals and 8% for the NDP. They also lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with 52% compared with 34% for the Liberals and 8% for the NDP.<\/p>\n
By gender, the Liberals lead 45% to 39% among men and 47% to 32% among women.<\/p>\n
By age, the Liberals lead among 18- to 29-year-olds by 45% to 35%, are statistically tied with the Conservatives among those aged 30 to 44, lead among those aged 45 to 59 by 44% to 38%, and lead by the widest margin among those aged 60 and over by 54% to 32%.<\/p>\n
By education, the Liberals lead among those with high school or less by 45% to 36%, are tied with the Conservatives among those with college education at 40% each, and lead among university graduates by 20-points (52% to 32%).<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12% \u00b7 Undecided removed<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Likely Voters
\n Region
\n Gender
\n Age
\n Trend
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 May 6, 2026 (Change from April 22)<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Undecided removed<\/p>\n
The Liberals lead at 46%, up 1 point from April 22. The Conservatives remain at 36%. The Liberal lead of 10 points is the widest since the election.<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 Those Certain to Vote<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Among those certain to vote<\/p>\n
PartyVote ShareTurnout Boost\/Suppression
\n Liberal47%\u25b2 +1Conservative36%NCNDP7%\u25bc -1BQ7%\u25b2 +1Green1%\u25bc -2People\u2019s1%NCOther0%NC<\/p>\n
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal lead expands to 11 points: 47% vs 36% for the Conservatives. Turnout boosts the Liberals (+1) and BQ (+1), while suppressing the NDP (\u22121) and Greens (\u22122).<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 by Region<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Undecided removed<\/p>\n
Region
\n LPC
\n CPC
\n NDP
\n BQ
\n GRN
\n PPC
\n OTH
\n Canada46%36%8%6%3%1%0%BC47%35%14%0%5%0%0%AB29%56%8%0%3%3%1%SK\/MB34%52%8%0%3%3%0%ON50%37%9%0%2%2%0%QC48%20%2%26%2%1%1%ATL62%30%8%0%0%0%0%<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 by Gender<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Undecided removed<\/p>\n
GroupLPCCPCNDPBQGRNPPCOTHMale45%39%6%6%2%1%0%Female47%32%9%6%3%2%1%<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention \u2014 by Age<\/p>\n
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? \u2014 Undecided removed<\/p>\n
GroupLPCCPCNDPBQGRNPPCOTH18 to 2945%35%12%2%4%2%0%30 to 4440%39%12%5%2%1%1%45 to 5944%38%6%6%3%1%1%60+54%32%3%9%2%1%0%<\/p>\n
Federal Vote Intention Trend \u2014 March 2025 to May 2026<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
Vote by Top Issue<\/p>\n
Among those who select the rising cost of living as a top issue, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 40% to 36%.<\/p>\n
Among those who select the economy, the Liberals lead 41% to 39%.<\/p>\n
Among those who select healthcare, the Liberals lead 43% to 30%.<\/p>\n
Among those who select Donald Trump and his administration, the Liberals lead 57% to 20%.<\/p>\n
Among those who select housing affordability and accessibility, the Liberals lead 41% to 28%.<\/p>\n
The Conservatives lead among those who select immigration, by 57% to 23%, and among those who select crime and public safety, by 44% to 35%.<\/p>\n
The Liberals also lead among those who select job security and unemployment, 41% to 34%; climate change and the environment, 52% to 15%; inequality and poverty, 45% to 20%; Indigenous reconciliation, 38% to 24%; and the rise of artificial intelligence, 54% to 29%.<\/p>\n
Time for Change or Re-elect Liberals<\/p>\n
On the time-for-change measure, 39% say they would re-elect the Liberals.<\/p>\n
Thirty-seven percent say it is time for change and there is a good alternative, while 24% say it is time for change but there is not a good alternative.<\/p>\n
Accessible Voter Pools<\/p>\n
The Liberals continue to have the largest accessible voter pool.<\/p>\n
Nationally, 60% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 49% who would consider voting Conservative and 32% who would consider voting NDP.<\/p>\n
In Quebec, 61% would consider voting Liberal, 33% Conservative, and 16% NDP.<\/p>\n
In Ontario, 64% would consider voting Liberal, 52% Conservative, and 36% NDP.<\/p>\n
In British Columbia, 61% would consider voting Liberal, 47% Conservative, and 40% NDP.<\/p>\n
Accessible Voter Pools \u2014 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026<\/p>\n
Accessible Voter Pools<\/p>\n
n=2,478 Canadians \u00b7 April 30\u2013May 5, 2026 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
\n Overall
\n Methodology\n <\/p>\n
% Who Would Consider Voting for Each Party \u2014 April 2\u20136, 2026<\/p>\n
Would you consider or not consider voting for the following federal political parties?<\/p>\n
\u25cf Liberal
\n \u25cf Conservative
\n \u25cf NDP<\/p>\n
Canada
\n 60%
\n 49%
\n 32%<\/p>\n
Quebec
\n 61%
\n 33%
\n 16%<\/p>\n
Ontario
\n 64%
\n 52%
\n 36%<\/p>\n
B.C.
\n 61%
\n 47%
\n 40%<\/p>\n
The Liberals have the largest accessible voter pool \u2014 60% of Canadians nationally say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 49% for the Conservatives and 32% for the NDP. The Liberal advantage is widest in Ontario (64% vs 52%).<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +\/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
Abacus Data \u00b7 Canadian Public Affairs Update \u00b7 May 6, 2026 \u00b7 n=2,478 \u00b7 MoE \u00b12%<\/p>\n
abacusdata.ca<\/p>\n
The Upshot<\/p>\n
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: \u201cStep back from this single wave and the picture comes into focus: one year after the federal election, Mark Carney has accumulated a significant amount of political capital, perhaps more than at any point in his mandate so far.<\/p>\n
Government approval has reached 57%, a new high in our tracking. The Liberals are at 46%, ten points ahead of the Conservatives and two points above what they received on election night. Carney\u2019s personal net impression is +26.<\/p>\n
None of these numbers exists in isolation. They reinforce one another. Approval, leadership impressions, and vote intention are all pointing in the same direction \u2014 and they have been for months.<\/p>\n
This does not look like a honeymoon. It looks more durable than that.<\/p>\n
After floor crossings, the budget vote, the move to majority government, the conflict in Iran, trade pressure from Washington, and the normal accumulation of incumbent decisions that usually erode public goodwill, the government is more popular today than it was when Canadians elected it.<\/p>\n
The new question we asked this wave helps explain why. A majority of Canadians, 55%, say the Carney government represents a genuine break from the Trudeau years rather than a continuation. Among those who believe that, about seven in ten say they would vote Liberal.<\/p>\n
The structural foundations are also there. The Liberal accessible voter pool sits at 60%, eleven points larger than the Conservative pool. The party leads among those who prioritize the cost of living, the economy, healthcare, housing, and managing Donald Trump. Some of these were Conservative advantages at different points over the past three years. They are gone.<\/p>\n
The Conservatives still lead on immigration and crime, but those are smaller issue clusters.<\/p>\n
For Pierre Poilievre, the challenge is no longer about repositioning on a single file. It is whether he can wait out this moment, or whether he has to change to fit into it. Either path is a gamble.<\/p>\n
So what does political capital of this magnitude buy?<\/p>\n
It may buy Carney the ability to ask Canadians for patience on long-horizon files where results will not show up for years. The Major Projects Office, Build Canada Homes, the sovereign wealth fund, the defence build-out, and the trade diversification agenda are all multi-year bets. The question is whether he can use the trust Canadians have extended to sustain support for choices whose payoff may be distant, uneven, or hard to see at first.<\/p>\n
That is the central test of year two.<\/p>\n
Does he use this moment to move quickly on difficult decisions while the public mood is favourable? Does he preserve political capital for the inevitable turbulence that comes with governing? Or does he try to do both: spend enough to show purpose, but not so much that he exhausts the goodwill he has built?<\/p>\n
The question for Carney is not simply how long these numbers can last. It is what he does with them while he has them.\u201d<\/p>\n
Methodology<\/p>\n
The survey was conducted with 2,478 Canadians from April 30 to May 5, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.<\/p>\n
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada\u2019s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.<\/p>\n
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.<\/p>\n
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\n
About Abacus Data<\/p>\n We are\u00a0Canada\u2019s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America\u2019s most respected and influential brands and organizations.<\/p>\n We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.<\/p>\n And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.<\/p>\n Our record speaks for itself:\u00a0we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/canada\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/abacus_methodology_promo-1-1024x538.png\")
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